Consumer Defensive ยท Household & Personal Products

PG relative to CL

Procter & Gamble Company / Colgate-Palmolive Company

PG is relatively depressed; CL is relatively extended against their shared history.

PG chart โ†—CL chart โ†—More PG pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation 1.10ฯƒHistorical percentile 85
Relationship quality 64/100
Evidence alignment 45/100
Stability 68/10015 centre crossings
Break risk 42/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap stable-1.00ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

CL / PG gap 1.10ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, CL is extended relative to PG; below zero, CL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, CL is extended relative to PG; below zero, CL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateCL / PG gap
29 Sep 2023-1.91ฯƒ
6 Oct 2023-2.06ฯƒ
13 Oct 2023-1.78ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-1.73ฯƒ
27 Oct 2023-1.94ฯƒ
3 Nov 2023-1.65ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-1.69ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-1.61ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-1.28ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-1.15ฯƒ
8 Dec 2023-0.47ฯƒ
15 Dec 2023-0.35ฯƒ
22 Dec 2023-0.21ฯƒ
29 Dec 2023-0.13ฯƒ
5 Jan 2024-0.19ฯƒ
12 Jan 2024-0.42ฯƒ
19 Jan 2024-0.15ฯƒ
26 Jan 2024-0.78ฯƒ
2 Feb 2024-0.67ฯƒ
9 Feb 2024-0.82ฯƒ
16 Feb 2024-0.82ฯƒ
23 Feb 2024-0.72ฯƒ
1 Mar 2024-0.40ฯƒ
8 Mar 2024-0.29ฯƒ
15 Mar 2024-0.35ฯƒ
22 Mar 2024-0.24ฯƒ
29 Mar 2024-0.16ฯƒ
5 Apr 20240.21ฯƒ
12 Apr 2024-0.08ฯƒ
19 Apr 2024-0.23ฯƒ
26 Apr 20240.10ฯƒ
3 May 20240.05ฯƒ
10 May 20240.16ฯƒ
17 May 2024-0.11ฯƒ
24 May 20240.02ฯƒ
31 May 20240.06ฯƒ
7 Jun 2024-0.08ฯƒ
14 Jun 20240.08ฯƒ
21 Jun 20240.36ฯƒ
28 Jun 20240.72ฯƒ
5 Jul 20240.69ฯƒ
12 Jul 20240.70ฯƒ
19 Jul 20240.50ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.59ฯƒ
2 Aug 20241.03ฯƒ
9 Aug 20240.86ฯƒ
16 Aug 20241.16ฯƒ
23 Aug 20241.36ฯƒ
30 Aug 20241.45ฯƒ
6 Sep 20241.19ฯƒ
13 Sep 20241.04ฯƒ
20 Sep 20240.60ฯƒ
27 Sep 20240.77ฯƒ
4 Oct 20240.56ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.47ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.48ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.02ฯƒ
1 Nov 2024-0.01ฯƒ
8 Nov 2024-0.46ฯƒ
15 Nov 2024-0.50ฯƒ
22 Nov 2024-1.03ฯƒ
29 Nov 2024-1.07ฯƒ
6 Dec 2024-0.88ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-0.70ฯƒ
20 Dec 2024-0.60ฯƒ
27 Dec 2024-0.81ฯƒ
3 Jan 2025-0.59ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-0.49ฯƒ
17 Jan 2025-0.37ฯƒ
24 Jan 2025-0.92ฯƒ
31 Jan 2025-1.37ฯƒ
7 Feb 2025-1.59ฯƒ
14 Feb 2025-1.12ฯƒ
21 Feb 2025-1.35ฯƒ
28 Feb 2025-1.45ฯƒ
7 Mar 2025-0.71ฯƒ
14 Mar 2025-1.02ฯƒ
21 Mar 2025-0.78ฯƒ
28 Mar 2025-0.48ฯƒ
4 Apr 2025-0.18ฯƒ
11 Apr 2025-0.14ฯƒ
18 Apr 2025-0.22ฯƒ
25 Apr 20250.52ฯƒ
2 May 2025-0.03ฯƒ
9 May 20250.20ฯƒ
16 May 2025-0.23ฯƒ
23 May 2025-0.30ฯƒ
30 May 2025-0.71ฯƒ
6 Jun 2025-0.50ฯƒ
13 Jun 2025-0.04ฯƒ
20 Jun 2025-0.35ฯƒ
27 Jun 2025-0.28ฯƒ
4 Jul 20250.35ฯƒ
11 Jul 20250.24ฯƒ
18 Jul 2025-0.06ฯƒ
25 Jul 2025-0.26ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-0.13ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-0.27ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-0.31ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-0.69ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-0.85ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-1.01ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-1.11ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-1.30ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-1.17ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-1.48ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-1.14ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-1.02ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-1.53ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-1.46ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-0.64ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-0.88ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-0.72ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-0.46ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-0.30ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-0.16ฯƒ
19 Dec 2025-0.38ฯƒ
26 Dec 2025-0.13ฯƒ
2 Jan 2026-0.15ฯƒ
9 Jan 20260.62ฯƒ
16 Jan 20260.86ฯƒ
23 Jan 20260.48ฯƒ
30 Jan 20260.95ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.74ฯƒ
13 Feb 20261.02ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.66ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.57ฯƒ
6 Mar 20261.29ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.82ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.97ฯƒ
27 Mar 20261.03ฯƒ
3 Apr 20261.14ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.70ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.75ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.31ฯƒ
1 May 20260.94ฯƒ
8 May 20261.11ฯƒ
15 May 20261.89ฯƒ
22 May 20261.95ฯƒ
29 May 20261.98ฯƒ
5 Jun 20261.28ฯƒ
12 Jun 20261.03ฯƒ
19 Jun 20260.99ฯƒ
26 Jun 20261.64ฯƒ
3 Jul 20261.87ฯƒ
10 Jul 20261.94ฯƒ
17 Jul 20261.68ฯƒ
24 Jul 20261.57ฯƒ
31 Jul 20262.07ฯƒ
7 Aug 20262.24ฯƒ
14 Aug 20262.17ฯƒ
21 Aug 20262.00ฯƒ
28 Aug 20262.06ฯƒ
4 Sep 20261.33ฯƒ
11 Sep 20261.12ฯƒ
18 Sep 20261.10ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

CL 131.18PG 107.79
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 100.0120.0140.0160.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateCLPG
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202397.6498.79
13 Oct 202399.7899.20
20 Oct 2023103.71102.15
27 Oct 2023101.62101.53
3 Nov 2023105.91103.54
10 Nov 2023106.77104.46
17 Nov 2023106.98104.23
24 Nov 2023109.43104.44
1 Dec 2023111.40105.33
8 Dec 2023109.23100.15
15 Dec 2023108.9699.32
22 Dec 2023111.12100.23
29 Dec 2023112.83101.10
5 Jan 2024113.21101.71
12 Jan 2024114.53103.91
19 Jan 2024114.46102.46
26 Jan 2024117.95108.41
2 Feb 2024120.49109.77
9 Feb 2024118.84109.30
16 Feb 2024118.87109.36
23 Feb 2024122.82111.81
1 Mar 2024123.16110.29
8 Mar 2024125.41111.33
15 Mar 2024125.95112.05
22 Mar 2024127.02112.24
29 Mar 2024128.23112.65
5 Apr 2024125.14108.38
12 Apr 2024122.25107.85
19 Apr 2024124.78110.50
26 Apr 2024130.34112.70
3 May 2024133.01114.92
10 May 2024136.19116.59
17 May 2024134.80117.14
24 May 2024133.62115.53
31 May 2024133.13114.98
7 Jun 2024134.46116.74
14 Jun 2024135.51116.55
21 Jun 2024139.30117.57
28 Jun 2024138.97115.24
5 Jul 2024138.99115.44
12 Jul 2024140.45116.42
19 Jul 2024141.18118.07
26 Jul 2024143.06118.88
2 Aug 2024147.99119.56
9 Aug 2024146.92119.88
16 Aug 2024146.81118.02
23 Aug 2024150.00118.92
30 Aug 2024153.30120.58
6 Sep 2024155.26123.43
13 Sep 2024152.19122.37
20 Sep 2024148.35122.47
27 Sep 2024149.21122.00
4 Oct 2024142.56118.71
11 Oct 2024144.09120.27
18 Oct 2024145.32121.11
25 Oct 2024138.31118.95
1 Nov 2024135.01116.74
8 Nov 2024133.91118.59
15 Nov 2024135.34119.88
22 Nov 2024137.31124.64
29 Nov 2024139.78126.75
6 Dec 2024136.31122.91
13 Dec 2024135.17120.95
20 Dec 2024133.13118.83
27 Dec 2024132.81119.87
3 Jan 2025130.41116.76
10 Jan 2025124.93112.12
17 Jan 2025128.30113.93
24 Jan 2025127.85116.76
31 Jan 2025126.13118.09
7 Feb 2025126.22119.50
14 Feb 2025125.17115.88
21 Feb 2025130.16121.11
28 Feb 2025132.63123.67
7 Mar 2025140.74125.17
14 Mar 2025130.67119.50
21 Mar 2025131.37118.59
28 Mar 2025135.03119.54
4 Apr 2025133.34116.50
11 Apr 2025136.75118.74
18 Apr 2025139.69121.39
25 Apr 2025137.36115.28
2 May 2025132.34114.93
9 May 2025131.36112.88
16 May 2025133.44116.90
23 May 2025135.43118.75
30 May 2025135.94121.63
6 Jun 2025131.99117.43
13 Jun 2025132.02114.75
20 Jun 2025128.40113.89
27 Jun 2025129.76114.45
4 Jul 2025135.71115.15
11 Jul 2025131.03112.44
18 Jul 2025127.78111.80
25 Jul 2025129.39114.11
1 Aug 2025122.88108.59
8 Aug 2025124.62110.66
15 Aug 2025125.18111.27
22 Aug 2025126.46114.37
29 Aug 2025123.71113.20
5 Sep 2025125.27115.35
12 Sep 2025122.54113.82
19 Sep 2025119.44112.48
26 Sep 2025117.11109.93
3 Oct 2025114.77109.76
10 Oct 2025114.71107.90
17 Oct 2025117.19109.13
24 Oct 2025115.53110.68
31 Oct 2025114.12109.14
7 Nov 2025116.65106.68
14 Nov 2025115.60107.18
21 Nov 2025119.87109.54
28 Nov 2025119.07107.54
5 Dec 2025115.63104.12
12 Dec 2025116.03103.68
19 Dec 2025116.06104.85
26 Dec 2025118.09105.06
2 Jan 2026115.07102.92
9 Jan 2026120.68102.97
16 Jan 2026125.18104.90
23 Jan 2026129.14109.75
30 Jan 2026134.55110.93
6 Feb 2026140.69116.34
13 Feb 2026144.06117.00
20 Feb 2026141.70117.52
27 Feb 2026147.74122.21
6 Mar 2026139.42112.29
13 Mar 2026132.39110.12
20 Mar 2026126.85105.46
27 Mar 2026125.61104.31
3 Apr 2026126.88104.61
10 Apr 2026125.68106.10
17 Apr 2026127.88107.40
24 Apr 2026126.95109.11
1 May 2026130.86108.43
8 May 2026131.30107.81
15 May 2026132.17104.24
22 May 2026135.89106.35
29 May 2026135.17105.70
5 Jun 2026132.84107.90
12 Jun 2026134.15110.16
19 Jun 2026133.42109.91
26 Jun 2026137.28108.92
3 Jul 2026141.85110.67
10 Jul 2026137.54107.47
17 Jul 2026138.64109.62
24 Jul 2026136.10108.54
31 Jul 2026136.92106.39
7 Aug 2026139.87107.35
14 Aug 2026137.89106.43
21 Aug 2026136.59106.53
28 Aug 2026136.10105.87
4 Sep 2026133.13107.83
11 Sep 2026130.17106.96
18 Sep 2026131.18107.79
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

CL / PG gap -1.00ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, CL is extended relative to PG; below zero, CL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ-1.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ1.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, CL is extended relative to PG; below zero, CL is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateCL / PG gap
22 Jan 2026-1.52ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-1.44ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-1.88ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-1.44ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-1.55ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-1.94ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.38ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-0.06ฯƒ
3 Feb 20260.00ฯƒ
4 Feb 20260.15ฯƒ
5 Feb 20260.02ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-0.25ฯƒ
9 Feb 2026-0.01ฯƒ
10 Feb 2026-0.40ฯƒ
11 Feb 2026-0.08ฯƒ
12 Feb 20260.00ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.38ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.12ฯƒ
18 Feb 20260.58ฯƒ
19 Feb 2026-0.29ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.29ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-0.36ฯƒ
24 Feb 2026-0.04ฯƒ
25 Feb 2026-0.20ฯƒ
26 Feb 20260.03ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-0.02ฯƒ
2 Mar 2026-0.01ฯƒ
3 Mar 20260.04ฯƒ
4 Mar 20260.21ฯƒ
5 Mar 20260.07ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.46ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-0.03ฯƒ
10 Mar 2026-0.36ฯƒ
11 Mar 2026-0.92ฯƒ
12 Mar 2026-1.01ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.71ฯƒ
16 Mar 2026-0.44ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-0.45ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-0.45ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-0.87ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.90ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-0.83ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-0.91ฯƒ
25 Mar 2026-0.69ฯƒ
26 Mar 2026-0.92ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.92ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-0.75ฯƒ
31 Mar 2026-0.89ฯƒ
1 Apr 2026-0.75ฯƒ
2 Apr 2026-0.67ฯƒ
6 Apr 2026-0.84ฯƒ
7 Apr 2026-1.10ฯƒ
8 Apr 2026-0.86ฯƒ
9 Apr 2026-1.01ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-1.38ฯƒ
13 Apr 2026-1.21ฯƒ
14 Apr 2026-1.30ฯƒ
15 Apr 2026-1.37ฯƒ
16 Apr 2026-1.26ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-1.15ฯƒ
20 Apr 2026-1.37ฯƒ
21 Apr 2026-1.63ฯƒ
22 Apr 2026-1.51ฯƒ
23 Apr 2026-1.53ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-1.85ฯƒ
27 Apr 2026-2.08ฯƒ
28 Apr 2026-1.64ฯƒ
29 Apr 2026-1.58ฯƒ
30 Apr 2026-1.36ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.67ฯƒ
4 May 2026-0.64ฯƒ
5 May 2026-0.56ฯƒ
6 May 2026-0.45ฯƒ
7 May 2026-0.40ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.39ฯƒ
11 May 2026-0.10ฯƒ
12 May 20260.06ฯƒ
13 May 20260.55ฯƒ
14 May 20260.82ฯƒ
15 May 20260.78ฯƒ
18 May 20261.29ฯƒ
19 May 20261.54ฯƒ
20 May 20261.44ฯƒ
21 May 20261.28ฯƒ
22 May 20261.14ฯƒ
26 May 20261.15ฯƒ
27 May 20260.79ฯƒ
28 May 20261.23ฯƒ
29 May 20261.13ฯƒ
1 Jun 20261.16ฯƒ
2 Jun 20260.99ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-0.19ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-0.22ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.03ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-0.70ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-0.73ฯƒ
10 Jun 20260.00ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-0.07ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.29ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-0.03ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-0.39ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-0.05ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-0.43ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-0.21ฯƒ
23 Jun 20260.20ฯƒ
24 Jun 20260.14ฯƒ
25 Jun 20260.51ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.78ฯƒ
29 Jun 20261.01ฯƒ
30 Jun 20261.10ฯƒ
1 Jul 20261.33ฯƒ
2 Jul 20261.42ฯƒ
6 Jul 20261.20ฯƒ
7 Jul 20261.13ฯƒ
8 Jul 20261.25ฯƒ
9 Jul 20260.81ฯƒ
10 Jul 20261.22ฯƒ
13 Jul 20261.31ฯƒ
14 Jul 20260.97ฯƒ
15 Jul 20260.75ฯƒ
16 Jul 20261.03ฯƒ
17 Jul 20260.93ฯƒ
20 Jul 20260.90ฯƒ
21 Jul 20260.57ฯƒ
22 Jul 20260.79ฯƒ
23 Jul 20260.64ฯƒ
24 Jul 20260.59ฯƒ
27 Jul 20260.80ฯƒ
28 Jul 20261.02ฯƒ
29 Jul 20261.83ฯƒ
30 Jul 20261.57ฯƒ
31 Jul 20261.36ฯƒ
3 Aug 20260.74ฯƒ
4 Aug 20261.12ฯƒ
5 Aug 20261.62ฯƒ
6 Aug 20261.49ฯƒ
7 Aug 20261.81ฯƒ
10 Aug 20261.64ฯƒ
11 Aug 20261.58ฯƒ
12 Aug 20261.81ฯƒ
13 Aug 20261.99ฯƒ
14 Aug 20261.58ฯƒ
17 Aug 20261.23ฯƒ
18 Aug 20261.62ฯƒ
19 Aug 20261.22ฯƒ
20 Aug 20261.07ฯƒ
21 Aug 20261.24ฯƒ
24 Aug 20261.40ฯƒ
25 Aug 20261.19ฯƒ
26 Aug 20261.53ฯƒ
27 Aug 20261.50ฯƒ
28 Aug 20261.30ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.69ฯƒ
1 Sep 20260.41ฯƒ
2 Sep 20260.30ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.44ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.04ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.07ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.51ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.40ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-0.48ฯƒ
14 Sep 2026-0.23ฯƒ
15 Sep 2026-0.67ฯƒ
16 Sep 2026-0.73ฯƒ
17 Sep 2026-0.56ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.44ฯƒ
21 Sep 2026-0.84ฯƒ
22 Sep 2026-0.95ฯƒ
23 Sep 2026-1.22ฯƒ
24 Sep 2026-1.13ฯƒ
25 Sep 2026-0.95ฯƒ
28 Sep 2026-1.31ฯƒ
29 Sep 2026-1.20ฯƒ
30 Sep 2026-1.05ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-1.10ฯƒ
2 Oct 2026-1.39ฯƒ
5 Oct 2026-0.84ฯƒ
6 Oct 2026-0.91ฯƒ
7 Oct 2026-0.81ฯƒ
8 Oct 2026-1.00ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowPGDepressed legCLExtended legReturn differencePG less CL
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-180.8%0.8%0.0 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-181.2%-4.0%5.1 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-1.9%-1.7%-0.3 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in PG / CL?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long PG / short CL

The proposed pair would look for PG to outperform CL, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship64/100

Stability 68/100 ยท break risk 42/100

02 ยท Separation1.10ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence45/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap stable

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Treat this as a watch condition until the spread turns and at least one leg develops confirming evidence.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that PG is improving relative to CL. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means PG rises more than CL, falls less than CL, or rises while CL falls. If CL outperforms PG, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A large z-score alone is not a reason to expect mean reversion; the separation may reflect new information.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, PG continues to weaken relative to CL, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long PG / short CL

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for PG to outperform CL; PG can rise faster, fall less, or rise while CL falls. The pair loses ground when CL outperforms PG.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWatch, do not assume convergenceโ€ to confirmed convergence. Wait for the daily gap to narrow and for PG to improve or CL to lose support.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study PG alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in PG. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and PG-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving PG price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study CL alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in CL. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in CL must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.45ฯƒ from the centre

Example: PG +5%, CL +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 0.833, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioPGCLNew gap
Both rise5%2%0.45ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%0.65ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.00ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%2.19ฯƒ
Current distance: 1.10ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 0.833 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • CL Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

1.200ร—

A 1% move in PG is associated with approximately 1.200% in CL in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.71

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability68/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life12.2 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings15

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context99/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 3

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 3 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
33.3%
Median time among resolved cases
5.0 weeks
Largest further extension
1.65ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-08.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-05.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-02.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-30.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-21.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-18.

Research state changed

Changed from Leader rollover to Unconfirmed stretch.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-16.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-15.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-14.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context