Consumer Defensive ยท Household & Personal Products

PG relative to UL

Procter & Gamble Company / Unilever PLC ADR

PG is relatively depressed; UL is relatively extended against their shared history.

PG chart โ†—UL chart โ†—More PG pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation -0.89ฯƒHistorical percentile 23
Relationship quality 66/100
Evidence alignment 43/100
Stability 87/1008 centre crossings
Break risk 33/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending1.22ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

PG / UL gap -0.89ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, PG is extended relative to UL; below zero, PG is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, PG is extended relative to UL; below zero, PG is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DatePG / UL gap
29 Sep 2023-1.25ฯƒ
6 Oct 2023-1.36ฯƒ
13 Oct 2023-1.23ฯƒ
20 Oct 2023-0.67ฯƒ
27 Oct 2023-0.55ฯƒ
3 Nov 2023-0.31ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-0.23ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-0.20ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-0.23ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-0.05ฯƒ
8 Dec 2023-1.04ฯƒ
15 Dec 2023-1.20ฯƒ
22 Dec 2023-1.10ฯƒ
29 Dec 2023-0.97ฯƒ
5 Jan 2024-0.88ฯƒ
12 Jan 2024-0.48ฯƒ
19 Jan 2024-0.53ฯƒ
26 Jan 20240.49ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.66ฯƒ
9 Feb 20240.39ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.39ฯƒ
23 Feb 20240.80ฯƒ
1 Mar 20240.70ฯƒ
8 Mar 20240.89ฯƒ
15 Mar 20241.06ฯƒ
22 Mar 20240.96ฯƒ
29 Mar 20241.02ฯƒ
5 Apr 20240.43ฯƒ
12 Apr 20240.53ฯƒ
19 Apr 20240.97ฯƒ
26 Apr 20240.90ฯƒ
3 May 20241.20ฯƒ
10 May 20241.35ฯƒ
17 May 20241.26ฯƒ
24 May 20240.99ฯƒ
31 May 20240.87ฯƒ
7 Jun 20241.09ฯƒ
14 Jun 20240.99ฯƒ
21 Jun 20241.19ฯƒ
28 Jun 20240.89ฯƒ
5 Jul 20240.87ฯƒ
12 Jul 20240.82ฯƒ
19 Jul 20241.07ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.94ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.89ฯƒ
9 Aug 20241.10ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.72ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.63ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.81ฯƒ
6 Sep 20241.25ฯƒ
13 Sep 20241.09ฯƒ
20 Sep 20241.16ฯƒ
27 Sep 20240.99ฯƒ
4 Oct 20240.66ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.94ฯƒ
18 Oct 20241.07ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.81ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.46ฯƒ
8 Nov 20240.97ฯƒ
15 Nov 20241.36ฯƒ
22 Nov 20242.05ฯƒ
29 Nov 20242.27ฯƒ
6 Dec 20241.71ฯƒ
13 Dec 20241.39ฯƒ
20 Dec 20241.20ฯƒ
27 Dec 20241.35ฯƒ
3 Jan 20250.91ฯƒ
10 Jan 20250.21ฯƒ
17 Jan 20250.49ฯƒ
24 Jan 20250.91ฯƒ
31 Jan 20251.05ฯƒ
7 Feb 20251.20ฯƒ
14 Feb 20250.92ฯƒ
21 Feb 20251.71ฯƒ
28 Feb 20252.04ฯƒ
7 Mar 20252.02ฯƒ
14 Mar 20251.11ฯƒ
21 Mar 20250.96ฯƒ
28 Mar 20251.07ฯƒ
4 Apr 20250.46ฯƒ
11 Apr 20250.66ฯƒ
18 Apr 20250.93ฯƒ
25 Apr 2025-0.02ฯƒ
2 May 2025-0.17ฯƒ
9 May 2025-0.45ฯƒ
16 May 20250.30ฯƒ
23 May 20250.43ฯƒ
30 May 20250.93ฯƒ
6 Jun 20250.27ฯƒ
13 Jun 2025-0.17ฯƒ
20 Jun 2025-0.19ฯƒ
27 Jun 2025-0.06ฯƒ
4 Jul 20250.02ฯƒ
11 Jul 2025-0.41ฯƒ
18 Jul 2025-0.42ฯƒ
25 Jul 2025-0.07ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-1.11ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-0.77ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-0.70ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-0.33ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-0.56ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-0.27ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-0.42ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-0.50ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-0.78ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-0.79ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-1.29ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-1.31ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-0.98ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-1.02ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-1.68ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-1.36ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-1.02ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-1.42ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-1.98ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-1.89ฯƒ
19 Dec 2025-1.67ฯƒ
26 Dec 2025-1.73ฯƒ
2 Jan 2026-2.05ฯƒ
9 Jan 2026-1.96ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-1.60ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.89ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.79ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-0.12ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-0.20ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.00ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.73ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.44ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.60ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-1.25ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-1.27ฯƒ
3 Apr 2026-0.80ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.81ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.58ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.21ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.50ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.48ฯƒ
15 May 2026-1.02ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.72ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.75ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.35ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.15ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-0.14ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.55ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-0.35ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.89ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.54ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.61ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-1.26ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-1.08ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-1.18ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-1.35ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-1.57ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-1.11ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-1.07ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.89ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

PG 107.79UL 122.02
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 100.0120.0140.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DatePGUL
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202398.7997.61
13 Oct 202399.2096.76
20 Oct 2023102.1597.57
27 Oct 2023101.5393.64
3 Nov 2023103.5496.44
10 Nov 2023104.4698.06
17 Nov 2023104.2396.74
24 Nov 2023104.4497.95
1 Dec 2023105.3397.91
8 Dec 2023100.1596.97
15 Dec 202399.3296.80
22 Dec 2023100.2398.30
29 Dec 2023101.1099.07
5 Jan 2024101.7199.64
12 Jan 2024103.91100.42
19 Jan 2024102.4696.39
26 Jan 2024108.4198.85
2 Feb 2024109.77100.32
9 Feb 2024109.30103.42
16 Feb 2024109.36103.61
23 Feb 2024111.81104.46
1 Mar 2024110.29101.35
8 Mar 2024111.33101.41
15 Mar 2024112.05100.92
22 Mar 2024112.24103.08
29 Mar 2024112.65103.49
5 Apr 2024108.3899.88
12 Apr 2024107.8596.42
19 Apr 2024110.5097.55
26 Apr 2024112.70105.66
3 May 2024114.92107.49
10 May 2024116.59110.34
17 May 2024117.14113.85
24 May 2024115.53113.45
31 May 2024114.98113.85
7 Jun 2024116.74115.64
14 Jun 2024116.55116.90
21 Jun 2024117.57116.67
28 Jun 2024115.24114.35
5 Jul 2024115.44115.39
12 Jul 2024116.42119.79
19 Jul 2024118.07120.67
26 Jul 2024118.88126.28
2 Aug 2024119.56130.05
9 Aug 2024119.88126.67
16 Aug 2024118.02127.82
23 Aug 2024118.92133.29
30 Aug 2024120.58135.79
6 Sep 2024123.43136.75
13 Sep 2024122.37136.35
20 Sep 2024122.47134.99
27 Sep 2024122.00137.15
4 Oct 2024118.71131.70
11 Oct 2024120.27131.60
18 Oct 2024121.11131.93
25 Oct 2024118.95129.29
1 Nov 2024116.74128.52
8 Nov 2024118.59124.65
15 Nov 2024119.88121.27
22 Nov 2024124.64123.83
29 Nov 2024126.75126.42
6 Dec 2024122.91124.73
13 Dec 2024120.95124.38
20 Dec 2024118.83120.76
27 Dec 2024119.87121.40
3 Jan 2025116.76119.39
10 Jan 2025112.12116.47
17 Jan 2025113.93117.59
24 Jan 2025116.76119.37
31 Jan 2025118.09121.23
7 Feb 2025119.50123.11
14 Feb 2025115.88115.97
21 Feb 2025121.11118.59
28 Feb 2025123.67120.57
7 Mar 2025125.17126.17
14 Mar 2025119.50125.06
21 Mar 2025118.59124.93
28 Mar 2025119.54126.06
4 Apr 2025116.50127.64
11 Apr 2025118.74131.88
18 Apr 2025121.39135.99
25 Apr 2025115.28133.39
2 May 2025114.93135.26
9 May 2025112.88133.13
16 May 2025116.90132.64
23 May 2025118.75137.01
30 May 2025121.63137.13
6 Jun 2025117.43135.37
13 Jun 2025114.75134.62
20 Jun 2025113.89131.61
27 Jun 2025114.45130.86
4 Jul 2025115.15131.83
11 Jul 2025112.44130.58
18 Jul 2025111.80128.24
25 Jul 2025114.11129.81
1 Aug 2025108.59129.90
8 Aug 2025110.66131.16
15 Aug 2025111.27132.16
22 Aug 2025114.37136.62
29 Aug 2025113.20136.92
5 Sep 2025115.35139.33
12 Sep 2025113.82136.25
19 Sep 2025112.48132.59
26 Sep 2025109.93128.43
3 Oct 2025109.76127.95
10 Oct 2025107.90130.92
17 Oct 2025109.13136.75
24 Oct 2025110.68135.77
31 Oct 2025109.14130.40
7 Nov 2025106.68134.31
14 Nov 2025107.18129.44
21 Nov 2025109.54131.98
28 Nov 2025107.54132.39
5 Dec 2025104.12129.97
12 Dec 2025103.68126.00
19 Dec 2025104.85126.31
26 Dec 2025105.06128.41
2 Jan 2026102.92126.22
9 Jan 2026102.97124.57
16 Jan 2026104.90125.17
23 Jan 2026109.75130.00
30 Jan 2026110.93132.64
6 Feb 2026116.34139.93
13 Feb 2026117.00144.73
20 Feb 2026117.52142.09
27 Feb 2026122.21144.17
6 Mar 2026112.29130.63
13 Mar 2026110.12125.21
20 Mar 2026105.46120.19
27 Mar 2026104.31116.06
3 Apr 2026104.61108.40
10 Apr 2026106.10114.05
17 Apr 2026107.40114.42
24 Apr 2026109.11113.64
1 May 2026108.43116.82
8 May 2026107.81114.17
15 May 2026104.24111.01
22 May 2026106.35113.20
29 May 2026105.70111.42
5 Jun 2026107.90111.96
12 Jun 2026110.16116.30
19 Jun 2026109.91115.27
26 Jun 2026108.92119.52
3 Jul 2026110.67122.29
10 Jul 2026107.47120.81
17 Jul 2026109.62122.12
24 Jul 2026108.54119.28
31 Jul 2026106.39124.12
7 Aug 2026107.35124.27
14 Aug 2026106.43122.56
21 Aug 2026106.53126.60
28 Aug 2026105.87128.44
4 Sep 2026107.83126.72
11 Sep 2026106.96122.42
18 Sep 2026107.79122.02
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

PG / UL gap 1.22ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, PG is extended relative to UL; below zero, PG is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, PG is extended relative to UL; below zero, PG is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DatePG / UL gap
22 Jan 2026-0.90ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.91ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-1.22ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-1.69ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-1.73ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-1.15ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.76ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-0.40ฯƒ
3 Feb 20260.19ฯƒ
4 Feb 20260.23ฯƒ
5 Feb 20260.57ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.60ฯƒ
9 Feb 20260.22ฯƒ
10 Feb 20260.61ฯƒ
11 Feb 20260.55ฯƒ
12 Feb 20260.89ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.22ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.22ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-0.22ฯƒ
19 Feb 20260.44ฯƒ
20 Feb 20260.81ฯƒ
23 Feb 20261.98ฯƒ
24 Feb 20261.85ฯƒ
25 Feb 20261.64ฯƒ
26 Feb 20261.73ฯƒ
27 Feb 20262.51ฯƒ
2 Mar 20262.00ฯƒ
3 Mar 20261.46ฯƒ
4 Mar 20261.03ฯƒ
5 Mar 20260.11ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.16ฯƒ
9 Mar 20260.82ฯƒ
10 Mar 20261.07ฯƒ
11 Mar 20260.56ฯƒ
12 Mar 2026-0.16ฯƒ
13 Mar 20260.00ฯƒ
16 Mar 20260.07ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-0.14ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-0.81ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-1.20ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-1.39ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-1.36ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-1.50ฯƒ
25 Mar 2026-1.29ฯƒ
26 Mar 2026-1.50ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-1.25ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-0.74ฯƒ
31 Mar 20260.18ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.37ฯƒ
2 Apr 20260.25ฯƒ
6 Apr 2026-0.08ฯƒ
7 Apr 2026-0.49ฯƒ
8 Apr 2026-0.10ฯƒ
9 Apr 20260.44ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.04ฯƒ
13 Apr 2026-0.56ฯƒ
14 Apr 2026-0.13ฯƒ
15 Apr 2026-0.58ฯƒ
16 Apr 2026-0.40ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.51ฯƒ
20 Apr 2026-0.14ฯƒ
21 Apr 2026-0.57ฯƒ
22 Apr 2026-0.54ฯƒ
23 Apr 20260.43ฯƒ
24 Apr 20261.46ฯƒ
27 Apr 20261.75ฯƒ
28 Apr 20261.95ฯƒ
29 Apr 20261.29ฯƒ
30 Apr 20260.80ฯƒ
1 May 20260.60ฯƒ
4 May 2026-0.40ฯƒ
5 May 20260.23ฯƒ
6 May 20260.84ฯƒ
7 May 20260.53ฯƒ
8 May 20260.76ฯƒ
11 May 20260.09ฯƒ
12 May 20260.05ฯƒ
13 May 2026-0.40ฯƒ
14 May 2026-0.18ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.39ฯƒ
18 May 2026-0.47ฯƒ
19 May 2026-0.83ฯƒ
20 May 2026-0.58ฯƒ
21 May 2026-0.25ฯƒ
22 May 20260.24ฯƒ
26 May 2026-0.19ฯƒ
27 May 20261.08ฯƒ
28 May 20260.87ฯƒ
29 May 20260.24ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-0.70ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-0.41ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-0.56ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-0.26ฯƒ
5 Jun 20261.19ฯƒ
8 Jun 20260.91ฯƒ
9 Jun 20261.63ฯƒ
10 Jun 20261.40ฯƒ
11 Jun 20261.26ฯƒ
12 Jun 20261.49ฯƒ
15 Jun 20261.86ฯƒ
16 Jun 20262.43ฯƒ
17 Jun 20262.21ฯƒ
18 Jun 20261.93ฯƒ
22 Jun 20261.25ฯƒ
23 Jun 20261.81ฯƒ
24 Jun 20261.97ฯƒ
25 Jun 20260.58ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.75ฯƒ
29 Jun 20260.35ฯƒ
30 Jun 20260.08ฯƒ
1 Jul 20260.10ฯƒ
2 Jul 20260.94ฯƒ
6 Jul 20260.52ฯƒ
7 Jul 20261.31ฯƒ
8 Jul 20260.12ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-0.14ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.31ฯƒ
13 Jul 20260.23ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-0.36ฯƒ
15 Jul 20260.13ฯƒ
16 Jul 20260.90ฯƒ
17 Jul 20260.49ฯƒ
20 Jul 20260.32ฯƒ
21 Jul 20260.36ฯƒ
22 Jul 20260.38ฯƒ
23 Jul 20260.16ฯƒ
24 Jul 20260.45ฯƒ
27 Jul 20260.73ฯƒ
28 Jul 2026-0.72ฯƒ
29 Jul 2026-1.42ฯƒ
30 Jul 2026-1.95ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-1.19ฯƒ
3 Aug 2026-1.14ฯƒ
4 Aug 2026-0.17ฯƒ
5 Aug 2026-0.70ฯƒ
6 Aug 2026-0.40ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-0.76ฯƒ
10 Aug 2026-0.50ฯƒ
11 Aug 2026-0.77ฯƒ
12 Aug 2026-0.96ฯƒ
13 Aug 2026-1.20ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-0.92ฯƒ
17 Aug 2026-1.14ฯƒ
18 Aug 2026-1.28ฯƒ
19 Aug 2026-1.32ฯƒ
20 Aug 2026-1.89ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-1.51ฯƒ
24 Aug 2026-1.20ฯƒ
25 Aug 2026-1.57ฯƒ
26 Aug 2026-1.65ฯƒ
27 Aug 2026-2.14ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-2.12ฯƒ
31 Aug 2026-1.58ฯƒ
1 Sep 2026-1.05ฯƒ
2 Sep 2026-0.61ฯƒ
3 Sep 2026-0.76ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-0.92ฯƒ
8 Sep 2026-1.01ฯƒ
9 Sep 2026-1.72ฯƒ
10 Sep 2026-1.33ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-0.64ฯƒ
14 Sep 2026-0.83ฯƒ
15 Sep 2026-0.29ฯƒ
16 Sep 2026-0.16ฯƒ
17 Sep 20260.09ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.19ฯƒ
21 Sep 2026-0.40ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.09ฯƒ
23 Sep 20260.05ฯƒ
24 Sep 2026-0.57ฯƒ
25 Sep 2026-0.47ฯƒ
28 Sep 20260.50ฯƒ
29 Sep 20260.67ฯƒ
30 Sep 2026-0.22ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-0.31ฯƒ
2 Oct 2026-0.01ฯƒ
5 Oct 20260.26ฯƒ
6 Oct 20260.84ฯƒ
7 Oct 20260.58ฯƒ
8 Oct 20261.22ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowPGDepressed legULExtended legReturn differencePG less UL
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-180.8%-0.3%1.1 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-181.2%-3.6%4.8 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-1.9%5.9%-7.8 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in PG / UL?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long PG / short UL

The proposed pair would look for PG to outperform UL, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship66/100

Stability 87/100 ยท break risk 33/100

02 ยท Separation0.89ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence43/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

The cleaner confirmation is a narrowing spread led by weakness in the extended leg rather than strength in both securities.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that PG is improving relative to UL. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means PG rises more than UL, falls less than UL, or rises while UL falls. If UL outperforms PG, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A fresh strengthening in the extended leg can prolong the separation and increase short-side risk.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, PG continues to weaken relative to UL, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long PG / short UL

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for PG to outperform UL; PG can rise faster, fall less, or rise while UL falls. The pair loses ground when UL outperforms PG.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWait for the daily turnโ€ to confirmed convergence. The clearest next checkpoint is a sustained turn from a stable or extending daily gap to a narrowing one.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study PG alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in PG. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and PG-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving PG price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study UL alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in UL. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in UL must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.01ฯƒ from the centre

Example: PG +5%, UL +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 0.288, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioPGULNew gap
Both rise5%2%0.01ฯƒPast centre
Both fall-2%-5%1.00ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.09ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%1.70ฯƒ
Current distance: 0.89ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 0.288 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • UL Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • UL has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.288ร—

A 1% move in UL is associated with approximately 0.288% in PG in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.58

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability87/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life9.6 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings8

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context100/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 3

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 3 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
33.3%
Median time among resolved cases
5.0 weeks
Largest further extension
1.55ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-06.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-30.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-23.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-18.

Research state changed

Changed from Unconfirmed stretch to Leader rollover.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-15.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-11.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-09.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-08-28.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context