Consumer Defensive ยท Household & Personal Products

MAGN relative to SPB

Magnera Corp placeholder / Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc

MAGN is relatively depressed; SPB is relatively extended against their shared history.

MAGN chart โ†—SPB chart โ†—More MAGN pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation -1.77ฯƒHistorical percentile 6
Relationship quality 42/100
Evidence alignment 33/100
Stability 77/1009 centre crossings
Break risk 60/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap narrowing-0.07ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

MAGN / SPB gap -1.77ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, MAGN is extended relative to SPB; below zero, MAGN is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, MAGN is extended relative to SPB; below zero, MAGN is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateMAGN / SPB gap
29 Sep 20231.73ฯƒ
6 Oct 20231.61ฯƒ
13 Oct 20231.39ฯƒ
20 Oct 20230.93ฯƒ
27 Oct 20231.10ฯƒ
3 Nov 20231.10ฯƒ
10 Nov 20230.49ฯƒ
17 Nov 20231.07ฯƒ
24 Nov 20231.09ฯƒ
1 Dec 20231.13ฯƒ
8 Dec 20230.71ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.87ฯƒ
22 Dec 20231.36ฯƒ
29 Dec 20231.55ฯƒ
5 Jan 20241.13ฯƒ
12 Jan 20240.28ฯƒ
19 Jan 20240.30ฯƒ
26 Jan 20240.83ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.27ฯƒ
9 Feb 20241.89ฯƒ
16 Feb 20241.84ฯƒ
23 Feb 20241.67ฯƒ
1 Mar 20242.09ฯƒ
8 Mar 20241.72ฯƒ
15 Mar 20241.07ฯƒ
22 Mar 20240.96ฯƒ
29 Mar 20241.32ฯƒ
5 Apr 20241.07ฯƒ
12 Apr 20240.99ฯƒ
19 Apr 20240.68ฯƒ
26 Apr 20240.45ฯƒ
3 May 20240.79ฯƒ
10 May 20240.37ฯƒ
17 May 20240.62ฯƒ
24 May 20240.83ฯƒ
31 May 20240.50ฯƒ
7 Jun 20240.48ฯƒ
14 Jun 20240.47ฯƒ
21 Jun 20240.60ฯƒ
28 Jun 20240.06ฯƒ
5 Jul 20240.37ฯƒ
12 Jul 20240.75ฯƒ
19 Jul 20240.52ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.32ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.46ฯƒ
9 Aug 20240.74ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.87ฯƒ
23 Aug 20241.02ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.32ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.29ฯƒ
13 Sep 20240.29ฯƒ
20 Sep 20240.50ฯƒ
27 Sep 20240.68ฯƒ
4 Oct 20240.64ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.74ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.52ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.76ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.71ฯƒ
8 Nov 20240.06ฯƒ
15 Nov 20240.05ฯƒ
22 Nov 20240.22ฯƒ
29 Nov 20240.30ฯƒ
6 Dec 20240.07ฯƒ
13 Dec 20240.07ฯƒ
20 Dec 20240.00ฯƒ
27 Dec 20240.14ฯƒ
3 Jan 20250.23ฯƒ
10 Jan 20250.18ฯƒ
17 Jan 20250.05ฯƒ
24 Jan 20250.07ฯƒ
31 Jan 20250.20ฯƒ
7 Feb 20250.72ฯƒ
14 Feb 20251.14ฯƒ
21 Feb 20250.89ฯƒ
28 Feb 20250.81ฯƒ
7 Mar 20250.81ฯƒ
14 Mar 20250.78ฯƒ
21 Mar 20250.75ฯƒ
28 Mar 20250.63ฯƒ
4 Apr 20250.27ฯƒ
11 Apr 20250.33ฯƒ
18 Apr 20250.29ฯƒ
25 Apr 20250.11ฯƒ
2 May 20250.26ฯƒ
9 May 20250.08ฯƒ
16 May 2025-0.37ฯƒ
23 May 2025-0.35ฯƒ
30 May 2025-0.33ฯƒ
6 Jun 20250.13ฯƒ
13 Jun 20250.25ฯƒ
20 Jun 20250.10ฯƒ
27 Jun 20250.11ฯƒ
4 Jul 20250.07ฯƒ
11 Jul 20250.03ฯƒ
18 Jul 20250.04ฯƒ
25 Jul 2025-0.04ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-0.10ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-0.05ฯƒ
15 Aug 20250.04ฯƒ
22 Aug 20250.07ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-0.20ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-0.31ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-0.43ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-0.35ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-0.45ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-0.30ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-0.65ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-1.17ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-1.11ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-1.18ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-1.28ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-1.50ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-0.49ฯƒ
28 Nov 20250.14ฯƒ
5 Dec 20250.25ฯƒ
12 Dec 20250.22ฯƒ
19 Dec 20250.32ฯƒ
26 Dec 20250.34ฯƒ
2 Jan 20260.14ฯƒ
9 Jan 20260.02ฯƒ
16 Jan 20260.00ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.14ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.36ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-0.40ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-0.69ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.87ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-1.03ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-1.29ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-1.48ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-1.88ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-2.24ฯƒ
3 Apr 2026-2.20ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-2.03ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-1.93ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-2.05ฯƒ
1 May 2026-2.08ฯƒ
8 May 2026-1.41ฯƒ
15 May 2026-1.96ฯƒ
22 May 2026-1.82ฯƒ
29 May 2026-1.54ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-1.70ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.32ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-1.48ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-1.50ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-1.40ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-1.25ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-1.24ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-1.20ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-1.32ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-1.46ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-1.58ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-1.52ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-1.58ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-1.53ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-1.71ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-1.77ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

MAGN 44.23SPB 117.71
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 25.050.075.0100.0125.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateMAGNSPB
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202394.0096.59
13 Oct 202388.0095.83
20 Oct 202378.5097.00
27 Oct 202381.5096.04
3 Nov 202383.5098.81
10 Nov 202371.0099.22
17 Nov 202374.5086.56
24 Nov 202373.5084.53
1 Dec 202379.0091.37
8 Dec 202373.0095.39
15 Dec 202380.50102.01
22 Dec 202393.50104.09
29 Dec 202397.00102.44
5 Jan 202483.5097.92
12 Jan 202467.5099.93
19 Jan 202468.00100.17
26 Jan 202480.50103.44
2 Feb 202468.00101.26
9 Feb 2024113.00110.26
16 Feb 2024109.50108.01
23 Feb 2024100.50102.69
1 Mar 2024112.50102.55
8 Mar 2024106.00107.77
15 Mar 202488.50107.35
22 Mar 202488.00110.68
29 Mar 2024100.00114.88
5 Apr 202489.50108.94
12 Apr 202484.00103.34
19 Apr 202477.50103.73
26 Apr 202474.50106.57
3 May 202482.50107.99
10 May 202481.50122.35
17 May 202485.00118.81
24 May 202490.50119.70
31 May 202481.00116.35
7 Jun 202481.00117.11
14 Jun 202480.50116.67
21 Jun 202483.00115.80
28 Jun 202469.50111.41
5 Jul 202474.00108.81
12 Jul 202481.50107.84
19 Jul 202477.50109.46
26 Jul 202474.50111.50
2 Aug 202475.00107.35
9 Aug 202485.00113.86
16 Aug 202490.50118.08
23 Aug 202495.00118.98
30 Aug 202480.50122.84
6 Sep 202478.50119.92
13 Sep 202479.00120.96
20 Sep 202484.00121.81
27 Sep 202488.50122.15
4 Oct 202486.50120.56
11 Oct 202487.50117.99
18 Oct 202483.00119.14
25 Oct 202487.00116.59
1 Nov 202487.00118.70
8 Nov 202474.04120.62
15 Nov 202471.00114.89
22 Nov 202475.89117.80
29 Nov 202478.77120.37
6 Dec 202476.00124.20
13 Dec 202473.12118.44
20 Dec 202468.46111.83
27 Dec 202470.42110.29
3 Jan 202572.00109.92
10 Jan 202570.77109.41
17 Jan 202569.50111.96
24 Jan 202568.85109.99
31 Jan 202571.77110.69
7 Feb 202577.42102.26
14 Feb 202586.58102.14
21 Feb 202582.46104.32
28 Feb 202579.27101.98
7 Mar 202577.3599.07
14 Mar 202573.7394.37
21 Mar 202571.5491.75
28 Mar 202570.3193.52
4 Apr 202557.5482.33
11 Apr 202557.8581.14
18 Apr 202555.9278.76
25 Apr 202555.3182.58
2 May 202558.7784.83
9 May 202554.3181.46
16 May 202550.3586.21
23 May 202545.9276.52
30 May 202546.2376.69
6 Jun 202550.9274.14
13 Jun 202549.4268.67
20 Jun 202547.8569.16
27 Jun 202548.5070.16
4 Jul 202550.6975.11
11 Jul 202550.7776.42
18 Jul 202549.8574.43
25 Jul 202551.6980.01
1 Aug 202545.6269.73
8 Aug 202548.8974.78
15 Aug 202550.2775.14
22 Aug 202551.1576.09
29 Aug 202547.6976.29
5 Sep 202546.1976.15
12 Sep 202542.4671.43
19 Sep 202542.9270.47
26 Sep 202542.4271.76
3 Oct 202545.0873.64
10 Oct 202538.2367.40
17 Oct 202535.0071.90
24 Oct 202536.6574.57
31 Oct 202534.9672.13
7 Nov 202534.1972.53
14 Nov 202533.6576.47
21 Nov 202544.3976.82
28 Nov 202554.4680.11
5 Dec 202554.3577.19
12 Dec 202557.0882.78
19 Dec 202557.4280.63
26 Dec 202558.0081.06
2 Jan 202654.8981.04
9 Jan 202656.4687.39
16 Jan 202654.2383.59
23 Jan 202654.0887.30
30 Jan 202650.2785.99
6 Feb 202657.15102.20
13 Feb 202653.15102.77
20 Feb 202652.92108.80
27 Feb 202649.81106.43
6 Mar 202645.58103.92
13 Mar 202642.00100.11
20 Mar 202636.0494.70
27 Mar 202634.1999.94
3 Apr 202634.62100.11
10 Apr 202638.31107.33
17 Apr 202641.58115.03
24 Apr 202640.19114.55
1 May 202639.31112.65
8 May 202646.46110.63
15 May 202638.23104.67
22 May 202640.23106.39
29 May 202643.73107.49
5 Jun 202643.15111.40
12 Jun 202648.58113.79
19 Jun 202646.89114.70
26 Jun 202648.15119.51
3 Jul 202648.39116.10
10 Jul 202649.62113.80
17 Jul 202652.35121.15
24 Jul 202652.73120.68
31 Jul 202650.96120.62
7 Aug 202649.65122.47
14 Aug 202648.00122.20
21 Aug 202647.46118.10
28 Aug 202647.69121.14
4 Sep 202648.23120.89
11 Sep 202645.00117.78
18 Sep 202644.23117.71
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

MAGN / SPB gap -0.07ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, MAGN is extended relative to SPB; below zero, MAGN is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, MAGN is extended relative to SPB; below zero, MAGN is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateMAGN / SPB gap
22 Jan 20261.88ฯƒ
23 Jan 20261.90ฯƒ
26 Jan 20261.73ฯƒ
27 Jan 20261.66ฯƒ
28 Jan 20261.42ฯƒ
29 Jan 20261.41ฯƒ
30 Jan 20261.30ฯƒ
2 Feb 20261.44ฯƒ
3 Feb 20261.48ฯƒ
4 Feb 20261.88ฯƒ
5 Feb 20262.15ฯƒ
6 Feb 20262.08ฯƒ
9 Feb 20261.96ฯƒ
10 Feb 20261.96ฯƒ
11 Feb 20261.95ฯƒ
12 Feb 20261.31ฯƒ
13 Feb 20261.45ฯƒ
17 Feb 20261.38ฯƒ
18 Feb 20261.54ฯƒ
19 Feb 20261.43ฯƒ
20 Feb 20261.31ฯƒ
23 Feb 20260.93ฯƒ
24 Feb 20260.89ฯƒ
25 Feb 20260.99ฯƒ
26 Feb 20261.00ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.83ฯƒ
2 Mar 20260.60ฯƒ
3 Mar 20260.21ฯƒ
4 Mar 20260.39ฯƒ
5 Mar 20260.50ฯƒ
6 Mar 20260.11ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-0.11ฯƒ
10 Mar 2026-0.15ฯƒ
11 Mar 2026-0.26ฯƒ
12 Mar 2026-0.42ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.52ฯƒ
16 Mar 2026-0.59ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-0.61ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-0.67ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-1.01ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-1.73ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-2.10ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-2.15ฯƒ
25 Mar 2026-1.88ฯƒ
26 Mar 2026-2.15ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-2.27ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-2.21ฯƒ
31 Mar 2026-1.70ฯƒ
1 Apr 2026-1.74ฯƒ
2 Apr 2026-2.17ฯƒ
6 Apr 2026-2.01ฯƒ
7 Apr 2026-1.93ฯƒ
8 Apr 2026-1.46ฯƒ
9 Apr 2026-1.43ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-1.43ฯƒ
13 Apr 2026-1.25ฯƒ
14 Apr 2026-0.85ฯƒ
15 Apr 2026-0.90ฯƒ
16 Apr 2026-1.13ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.86ฯƒ
20 Apr 2026-0.66ฯƒ
21 Apr 2026-0.96ฯƒ
22 Apr 2026-1.22ฯƒ
23 Apr 2026-1.20ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-1.14ฯƒ
27 Apr 2026-1.21ฯƒ
28 Apr 2026-1.09ฯƒ
29 Apr 2026-1.56ฯƒ
30 Apr 2026-1.49ฯƒ
1 May 2026-1.30ฯƒ
4 May 2026-1.42ฯƒ
5 May 2026-1.37ฯƒ
6 May 2026-0.66ฯƒ
7 May 2026-0.01ฯƒ
8 May 20260.16ฯƒ
11 May 2026-0.27ฯƒ
12 May 2026-0.66ฯƒ
13 May 2026-1.01ฯƒ
14 May 2026-0.95ฯƒ
15 May 2026-1.40ฯƒ
18 May 2026-1.10ฯƒ
19 May 2026-0.95ฯƒ
20 May 2026-0.91ฯƒ
21 May 2026-0.85ฯƒ
22 May 2026-1.00ฯƒ
26 May 2026-0.78ฯƒ
27 May 2026-0.43ฯƒ
28 May 2026-0.29ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.30ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-0.14ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-0.18ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-0.35ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-0.30ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.48ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-0.51ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-0.15ฯƒ
10 Jun 20260.10ฯƒ
11 Jun 20260.24ฯƒ
12 Jun 20260.49ฯƒ
15 Jun 20260.47ฯƒ
16 Jun 20260.21ฯƒ
17 Jun 20260.14ฯƒ
18 Jun 20260.18ฯƒ
22 Jun 20260.07ฯƒ
23 Jun 20260.09ฯƒ
24 Jun 20260.34ฯƒ
25 Jun 20260.29ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.33ฯƒ
29 Jun 2026-0.10ฯƒ
30 Jun 2026-0.18ฯƒ
1 Jul 2026-0.05ฯƒ
2 Jul 20260.42ฯƒ
6 Jul 20260.53ฯƒ
7 Jul 20260.47ฯƒ
8 Jul 20260.38ฯƒ
9 Jul 20260.46ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.68ฯƒ
13 Jul 20260.70ฯƒ
14 Jul 20260.43ฯƒ
15 Jul 20260.97ฯƒ
16 Jul 20261.25ฯƒ
17 Jul 20261.02ฯƒ
20 Jul 20260.95ฯƒ
21 Jul 20260.86ฯƒ
22 Jul 20261.01ฯƒ
23 Jul 20260.82ฯƒ
24 Jul 20261.08ฯƒ
27 Jul 20261.10ฯƒ
28 Jul 20261.22ฯƒ
29 Jul 20261.17ฯƒ
30 Jul 20260.84ฯƒ
31 Jul 20260.79ฯƒ
3 Aug 20261.09ฯƒ
4 Aug 20261.02ฯƒ
5 Aug 20260.94ฯƒ
6 Aug 20260.32ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.54ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.71ฯƒ
11 Aug 20260.29ฯƒ
12 Aug 20260.27ฯƒ
13 Aug 20260.03ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.26ฯƒ
17 Aug 2026-0.03ฯƒ
18 Aug 20260.13ฯƒ
19 Aug 2026-0.03ฯƒ
20 Aug 20260.01ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.23ฯƒ
24 Aug 20260.26ฯƒ
25 Aug 20260.45ฯƒ
26 Aug 20260.25ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.18ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.22ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.38ฯƒ
1 Sep 20260.22ฯƒ
2 Sep 20260.33ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.23ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.32ฯƒ
8 Sep 2026-0.08ฯƒ
9 Sep 2026-0.28ฯƒ
10 Sep 2026-0.31ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-0.22ฯƒ
14 Sep 2026-0.39ฯƒ
15 Sep 2026-0.28ฯƒ
16 Sep 2026-0.27ฯƒ
17 Sep 2026-0.24ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.37ฯƒ
21 Sep 2026-0.11ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.02ฯƒ
23 Sep 2026-0.14ฯƒ
24 Sep 2026-0.08ฯƒ
25 Sep 20260.11ฯƒ
28 Sep 20260.00ฯƒ
29 Sep 2026-0.16ฯƒ
30 Sep 2026-0.34ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-0.36ฯƒ
2 Oct 2026-0.07ฯƒ
5 Oct 2026-0.01ฯƒ
6 Oct 20260.00ฯƒ
7 Oct 2026-0.04ฯƒ
8 Oct 2026-0.07ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowMAGNDepressed legSPBExtended legReturn differenceMAGN less SPB
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-18-1.7%-0.1%-1.7 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-6.8%-0.3%-6.5 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-5.7%2.6%-8.3 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in MAGN / SPB?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

No pair trade

Do not pair long MAGN with short SPB yet

The earlier relationship is not dependable enough to use the old gap as a trading reference. A large separation can persist when the businesses or their market drivers have changed.

01 ยท Relationship42/100

Stability 77/100 ยท break risk 60/100

02 ยท Separation1.77ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence33/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap narrowing

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Research the company-specific catalyst before considering a relative-value expression. A relationship repair must be visible first.

Reconsider the pair only after a later publication shows that the relationship has stabilised, break risk has fallen and the completed daily gap is moving back toward normal.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

Until those conditions return, neither leg is a relative-value trade from this research.

A favourable relative move means MAGN rises more than SPB, falls less than SPB, or rises while SPB falls. If SPB outperforms MAGN, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

Fading an information-driven move can compound losses because the historical centre may no longer be relevant.

The pair remains unusable while break risk is high or the earlier co-movement has not returned.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long MAGN / short SPB

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for MAGN to outperform SPB; MAGN can rise faster, fall less, or rise while SPB falls. The pair loses ground when SPB outperforms MAGN.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œStand asideโ€ to confirmed convergence. Reconsider only after the pair rebuilds stable co-movement, repeated centre crossings and lower break risk.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study MAGN alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in MAGN. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and MAGN-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving MAGN price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study SPB alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in SPB. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in SPB must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

1.65ฯƒ from the centre

Example: MAGN +5%, SPB +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 0.806, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioMAGNSPBNew gap
Both rise5%2%1.65ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%1.69ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%1.57ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%1.97ฯƒ
Current distance: 1.77ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 0.806 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • SPB Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • SPB has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.806ร—

A 1% move in SPB is associated with approximately 0.806% in MAGN in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.41

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability77/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life14.8 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings9

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context52/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 1 / 2

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 2 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
50.0%
Median time among resolved cases
7.0 weeks
Largest further extension
4.03ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-06.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-02.

Research state changed

Changed from Leader rollover to Information break.

Research state changed

Changed from Information break to Leader rollover.

Relationship discovered

Published as Information break after the completed 2026-08-14 observation.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context