Consumer Defensive ยท Household & Personal Products

COTY relative to ELF

Coty Inc / ELF Beauty Inc

COTY is relatively depressed; ELF is relatively extended against their shared history.

COTY chart โ†—ELF chart โ†—More COTY pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation -1.78ฯƒHistorical percentile 1
Relationship quality 48/100
Evidence alignment 43/100
Stability 98/10011 centre crossings
Break risk 44/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap narrowing-0.38ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

COTY / ELF gap -1.78ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, COTY is extended relative to ELF; below zero, COTY is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ-1.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ1.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, COTY is extended relative to ELF; below zero, COTY is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateCOTY / ELF gap
29 Sep 20231.67ฯƒ
6 Oct 20231.87ฯƒ
13 Oct 20231.60ฯƒ
20 Oct 20231.54ฯƒ
27 Oct 20231.43ฯƒ
3 Nov 20231.80ฯƒ
10 Nov 20231.83ฯƒ
17 Nov 20231.61ฯƒ
24 Nov 20231.64ฯƒ
1 Dec 20231.48ฯƒ
8 Dec 20231.37ฯƒ
15 Dec 20231.17ฯƒ
22 Dec 20231.17ฯƒ
29 Dec 20231.15ฯƒ
5 Jan 20241.10ฯƒ
12 Jan 20240.84ฯƒ
19 Jan 20240.81ฯƒ
26 Jan 20240.83ฯƒ
2 Feb 20240.58ฯƒ
9 Feb 20240.40ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.47ฯƒ
23 Feb 20240.51ฯƒ
1 Mar 2024-0.06ฯƒ
8 Mar 20240.20ฯƒ
15 Mar 20240.14ฯƒ
22 Mar 2024-0.07ฯƒ
29 Mar 20240.11ฯƒ
5 Apr 20240.50ฯƒ
12 Apr 20240.35ฯƒ
19 Apr 20240.62ฯƒ
26 Apr 20240.27ฯƒ
3 May 20240.66ฯƒ
10 May 20240.48ฯƒ
17 May 20240.47ฯƒ
24 May 2024-0.14ฯƒ
31 May 2024-0.11ฯƒ
7 Jun 2024-0.04ฯƒ
14 Jun 2024-0.33ฯƒ
21 Jun 2024-0.52ฯƒ
28 Jun 2024-0.56ฯƒ
5 Jul 2024-0.46ฯƒ
12 Jul 2024-0.46ฯƒ
19 Jul 2024-0.05ฯƒ
26 Jul 2024-0.15ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.02ฯƒ
9 Aug 20240.03ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.20ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.07ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.32ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.83ฯƒ
13 Sep 20241.01ฯƒ
20 Sep 20241.14ฯƒ
27 Sep 20241.23ฯƒ
4 Oct 20241.28ฯƒ
11 Oct 20241.23ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.82ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.71ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.89ฯƒ
8 Nov 20240.31ฯƒ
15 Nov 20240.29ฯƒ
22 Nov 20240.21ฯƒ
29 Nov 20240.16ฯƒ
6 Dec 20240.00ฯƒ
13 Dec 2024-0.06ฯƒ
20 Dec 20240.05ฯƒ
27 Dec 20240.06ฯƒ
3 Jan 20250.05ฯƒ
10 Jan 20250.01ฯƒ
17 Jan 20250.13ฯƒ
24 Jan 20250.67ฯƒ
31 Jan 20250.94ฯƒ
7 Feb 20251.77ฯƒ
14 Feb 20251.20ฯƒ
21 Feb 20251.18ฯƒ
28 Feb 20251.37ฯƒ
7 Mar 20251.42ฯƒ
14 Mar 20251.38ฯƒ
21 Mar 20251.66ฯƒ
28 Mar 20251.51ฯƒ
4 Apr 20251.82ฯƒ
11 Apr 20251.97ฯƒ
18 Apr 20251.79ฯƒ
25 Apr 20251.45ฯƒ
2 May 20251.23ฯƒ
9 May 20251.03ฯƒ
16 May 20250.69ฯƒ
23 May 20250.38ฯƒ
30 May 2025-0.44ฯƒ
6 Jun 2025-0.54ฯƒ
13 Jun 2025-0.88ฯƒ
20 Jun 2025-0.72ฯƒ
27 Jun 2025-0.97ฯƒ
4 Jul 2025-0.83ฯƒ
11 Jul 2025-0.31ฯƒ
18 Jul 2025-0.59ฯƒ
25 Jul 2025-0.57ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-0.66ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-0.24ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-0.55ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-1.17ฯƒ
29 Aug 2025-1.13ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-1.29ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-1.49ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-1.58ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-1.41ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-1.52ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-1.30ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-1.38ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-1.16ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-1.25ฯƒ
7 Nov 20250.16ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-0.01ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-0.12ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-0.25ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-0.36ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-0.34ฯƒ
19 Dec 2025-0.47ฯƒ
26 Dec 2025-0.60ฯƒ
2 Jan 2026-0.49ฯƒ
9 Jan 2026-0.77ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-0.98ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-0.88ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-0.71ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-1.05ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-1.18ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-1.44ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-1.55ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-1.36ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-1.17ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-1.22ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.87ฯƒ
3 Apr 2026-0.81ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.86ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.72ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.63ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.30ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.32ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.55ฯƒ
22 May 2026-0.39ฯƒ
29 May 2026-0.44ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-0.28ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.79ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-1.09ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-1.28ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-1.20ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-1.28ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.77ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.88ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-1.00ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-1.46ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-1.21ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-1.64ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-1.61ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-1.70ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-1.52ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-1.78ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

COTY 22.15ELF 87.81
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 0.050.0100.0150.0200.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateCOTYELF
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202396.1790.99
13 Oct 202388.1592.32
20 Oct 202386.5192.76
27 Oct 202383.3293.09
3 Nov 202389.4387.54
10 Nov 202389.2486.58
17 Nov 2023100.82102.75
24 Nov 2023103.56104.14
1 Dec 2023105.56111.48
8 Dec 2023105.93115.88
15 Dec 2023114.13131.45
22 Dec 2023113.49130.97
29 Dec 2023113.22131.42
5 Jan 2024105.01125.67
12 Jan 2024111.58143.50
19 Jan 2024110.30143.67
26 Jan 2024110.85143.08
2 Feb 2024110.30154.57
9 Feb 2024105.93158.90
16 Feb 2024108.48158.41
23 Feb 2024119.42169.30
1 Mar 2024115.50197.94
8 Mar 2024116.04182.93
15 Mar 2024112.49181.53
22 Mar 2024107.38187.20
29 Mar 2024109.03178.49
5 Apr 2024100.55146.94
12 Apr 202495.81148.33
19 Apr 2024101.64142.70
26 Apr 2024104.47163.55
3 May 2024105.74145.79
10 May 2024101.82149.40
17 May 202497.17144.27
24 May 202496.17174.29
31 May 202494.44170.18
7 Jun 202491.34161.73
14 Jun 202489.79175.39
21 Jun 202490.52187.48
28 Jun 202491.34191.86
5 Jul 202489.43182.32
12 Jul 202495.17192.02
19 Jul 202490.79161.63
26 Jul 202490.34166.46
2 Aug 202486.05151.10
9 Aug 202483.14146.44
16 Aug 202487.79144.95
23 Aug 202490.79155.65
30 Aug 202485.51136.38
6 Sep 202481.95111.63
13 Sep 202483.05106.19
20 Sep 202483.77102.80
27 Sep 202486.69102.49
4 Oct 202481.9596.41
11 Oct 202483.9699.90
18 Oct 202470.1998.52
25 Oct 202469.01100.50
1 Nov 202468.1993.89
8 Nov 202465.27109.44
15 Nov 202465.63110.47
22 Nov 202466.73115.11
29 Nov 202467.37117.93
6 Dec 202469.37127.11
13 Dec 202468.37128.04
20 Dec 202464.18117.15
27 Dec 202463.72116.33
3 Jan 202562.08114.17
10 Jan 202560.80113.71
17 Jan 202565.09115.59
24 Jan 202567.91100.66
31 Jan 202566.8290.97
7 Feb 202561.6264.76
14 Feb 202550.8766.47
21 Feb 202552.0568.22
28 Feb 202551.8763.96
7 Mar 202553.3364.35
14 Mar 202550.2362.08
21 Mar 202550.6857.23
28 Mar 202549.6859.03
4 Apr 202545.9450.01
11 Apr 202547.4048.81
18 Apr 202543.1247.94
25 Apr 202545.3155.68
2 May 202547.1361.96
9 May 202542.7560.86
16 May 202546.0472.20
23 May 202543.5776.42
30 May 202544.94102.42
6 Jun 202545.76107.13
13 Jun 202543.12114.05
20 Jun 202543.48109.12
27 Jun 202542.02115.02
4 Jul 202546.40119.26
11 Jul 202546.13100.14
18 Jul 202544.85107.10
25 Jul 202546.67110.04
1 Aug 202543.12106.00
8 Aug 202543.2192.66
15 Aug 202544.85105.96
22 Aug 202535.83107.58
29 Aug 202539.02113.81
5 Sep 202539.84121.98
12 Sep 202537.28123.12
19 Sep 202537.47127.43
26 Sep 202536.55118.16
3 Oct 202536.55122.56
10 Oct 202538.20118.08
17 Oct 202539.56124.67
24 Oct 202537.74111.82
31 Oct 202536.19111.21
7 Nov 202534.1867.14
14 Nov 202531.9166.93
21 Nov 202528.8163.78
28 Nov 202530.2669.35
5 Dec 202531.4574.12
12 Dec 202529.3569.53
19 Dec 202529.7273.24
26 Dec 202528.2673.22
2 Jan 202628.3570.85
9 Jan 202629.0879.23
16 Jan 202627.8081.94
23 Jan 202630.6385.73
30 Jan 202628.9077.38
6 Feb 202624.2574.74
13 Feb 202622.8874.21
20 Feb 202624.5285.61
27 Feb 202622.8883.81
6 Mar 202621.6075.06
13 Mar 202620.2466.84
20 Mar 202619.5166.01
27 Mar 202618.2355.59
3 Apr 202618.6955.69
10 Apr 202619.7859.30
17 Apr 202621.5160.84
24 Apr 202622.0660.35
1 May 202622.5255.08
8 May 202622.5255.41
15 May 202618.7851.38
22 May 202618.5148.17
29 May 202619.4250.99
5 Jun 202617.8745.13
12 Jun 202618.8755.68
19 Jun 202617.7858.45
26 Jun 202617.5061.40
3 Jul 202620.9769.58
10 Jul 202620.4269.88
17 Jul 202623.7967.10
24 Jul 202624.1670.44
31 Jul 202625.0775.47
7 Aug 202625.7189.68
14 Aug 202625.9883.26
21 Aug 202624.9892.82
28 Aug 202625.9894.78
4 Sep 202626.7199.85
11 Sep 202624.6188.24
18 Sep 202622.1587.81
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

COTY / ELF gap -0.38ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, COTY is extended relative to ELF; below zero, COTY is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, COTY is extended relative to ELF; below zero, COTY is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateCOTY / ELF gap
22 Jan 20262.23ฯƒ
23 Jan 20262.40ฯƒ
26 Jan 20262.26ฯƒ
27 Jan 20262.19ฯƒ
28 Jan 20262.20ฯƒ
29 Jan 20262.13ฯƒ
30 Jan 20262.35ฯƒ
2 Feb 20262.51ฯƒ
3 Feb 20262.32ฯƒ
4 Feb 20263.25ฯƒ
5 Feb 20262.86ฯƒ
6 Feb 20260.58ฯƒ
9 Feb 20260.68ฯƒ
10 Feb 20260.73ฯƒ
11 Feb 20260.41ฯƒ
12 Feb 20260.47ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-0.02ฯƒ
17 Feb 2026-0.20ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-0.04ฯƒ
19 Feb 2026-0.15ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.09ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-0.26ฯƒ
24 Feb 2026-0.22ฯƒ
25 Feb 2026-0.19ฯƒ
26 Feb 2026-0.29ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-0.74ฯƒ
2 Mar 2026-0.21ฯƒ
3 Mar 2026-0.26ฯƒ
4 Mar 2026-0.30ฯƒ
5 Mar 2026-0.60ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.73ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-0.68ฯƒ
10 Mar 2026-0.78ฯƒ
11 Mar 2026-0.70ฯƒ
12 Mar 2026-0.72ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.79ฯƒ
16 Mar 2026-0.85ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-1.14ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-1.05ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-1.14ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-1.12ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-1.08ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-1.14ฯƒ
25 Mar 2026-1.37ฯƒ
26 Mar 2026-1.24ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-0.87ฯƒ
30 Mar 2026-0.60ฯƒ
31 Mar 2026-0.78ฯƒ
1 Apr 2026-0.77ฯƒ
2 Apr 2026-0.61ฯƒ
6 Apr 2026-0.22ฯƒ
7 Apr 2026-0.28ฯƒ
8 Apr 2026-0.45ฯƒ
9 Apr 2026-0.65ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.34ฯƒ
13 Apr 20260.07ฯƒ
14 Apr 2026-0.12ฯƒ
15 Apr 2026-0.10ฯƒ
16 Apr 20260.00ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.45ฯƒ
20 Apr 20260.36ฯƒ
21 Apr 20260.39ฯƒ
22 Apr 20260.32ฯƒ
23 Apr 20260.41ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.78ฯƒ
27 Apr 20260.92ฯƒ
28 Apr 20261.22ฯƒ
29 Apr 20261.02ฯƒ
30 Apr 20261.17ฯƒ
1 May 20261.54ฯƒ
4 May 20261.19ฯƒ
5 May 20262.05ฯƒ
6 May 20262.24ฯƒ
7 May 20261.55ฯƒ
8 May 20261.51ฯƒ
11 May 20261.43ฯƒ
12 May 20261.14ฯƒ
13 May 20260.94ฯƒ
14 May 20260.39ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.08ฯƒ
18 May 2026-0.19ฯƒ
19 May 2026-0.44ฯƒ
20 May 2026-0.07ฯƒ
21 May 2026-0.17ฯƒ
22 May 20260.13ฯƒ
26 May 20260.00ฯƒ
27 May 20260.30ฯƒ
28 May 20260.71ฯƒ
29 May 20260.34ฯƒ
1 Jun 20260.23ฯƒ
2 Jun 20260.07ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-0.51ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-0.74ฯƒ
5 Jun 20260.12ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-0.31ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-0.28ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-0.64ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-0.67ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.50ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-0.87ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-1.03ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-1.57ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-1.45ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-1.59ฯƒ
23 Jun 2026-1.33ฯƒ
24 Jun 2026-1.48ฯƒ
25 Jun 2026-1.94ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-1.91ฯƒ
29 Jun 2026-1.89ฯƒ
30 Jun 2026-1.14ฯƒ
1 Jul 2026-0.90ฯƒ
2 Jul 2026-0.62ฯƒ
6 Jul 2026-0.64ฯƒ
7 Jul 2026-0.89ฯƒ
8 Jul 2026-1.26ฯƒ
9 Jul 2026-1.43ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.95ฯƒ
13 Jul 2026-0.82ฯƒ
14 Jul 2026-0.54ฯƒ
15 Jul 2026-0.12ฯƒ
16 Jul 20260.41ฯƒ
17 Jul 20261.00ฯƒ
20 Jul 20260.93ฯƒ
21 Jul 20261.12ฯƒ
22 Jul 20261.10ฯƒ
23 Jul 20260.77ฯƒ
24 Jul 20260.89ฯƒ
27 Jul 20260.70ฯƒ
28 Jul 20260.94ฯƒ
29 Jul 20260.96ฯƒ
30 Jul 20260.70ฯƒ
31 Jul 20260.90ฯƒ
3 Aug 20261.08ฯƒ
4 Aug 20261.19ฯƒ
5 Aug 20260.98ฯƒ
6 Aug 20260.15ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.17ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.49ฯƒ
11 Aug 20260.38ฯƒ
12 Aug 20260.29ฯƒ
13 Aug 20260.29ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.73ฯƒ
17 Aug 2026-0.15ฯƒ
18 Aug 20260.22ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.91ฯƒ
20 Aug 2026-0.11ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-0.35ฯƒ
24 Aug 2026-0.38ฯƒ
25 Aug 2026-0.86ฯƒ
26 Aug 2026-0.64ฯƒ
27 Aug 2026-0.51ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-0.04ฯƒ
31 Aug 2026-0.31ฯƒ
1 Sep 2026-0.16ฯƒ
2 Sep 2026-0.02ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.09ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-0.03ฯƒ
8 Sep 2026-0.41ฯƒ
9 Sep 2026-0.45ฯƒ
10 Sep 2026-0.45ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-0.22ฯƒ
14 Sep 2026-0.13ฯƒ
15 Sep 2026-0.34ฯƒ
16 Sep 2026-0.30ฯƒ
17 Sep 2026-1.04ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-1.37ฯƒ
21 Sep 2026-1.09ฯƒ
22 Sep 2026-0.65ฯƒ
23 Sep 2026-0.70ฯƒ
24 Sep 2026-0.73ฯƒ
25 Sep 2026-0.59ฯƒ
28 Sep 2026-0.59ฯƒ
29 Sep 2026-0.55ฯƒ
30 Sep 2026-0.84ฯƒ
1 Oct 2026-0.85ฯƒ
2 Oct 2026-0.84ฯƒ
5 Oct 2026-0.54ฯƒ
6 Oct 2026-0.20ฯƒ
7 Oct 2026-0.29ฯƒ
8 Oct 2026-0.38ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowCOTYDepressed legELFExtended legReturn differenceCOTY less ELF
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-18-10.0%-0.5%-9.5 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-11.3%-5.4%-5.9 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-1824.6%50.2%-25.6 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in COTY / ELF?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long COTY / short ELF

The proposed pair would look for COTY to outperform ELF, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship48/100

Stability 98/100 ยท break risk 44/100

02 ยท Separation1.78ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence43/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap narrowing

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

Treat this as a watch condition until the spread turns and at least one leg develops confirming evidence.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that COTY is improving relative to ELF. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means COTY rises more than ELF, falls less than ELF, or rises while ELF falls. If ELF outperforms COTY, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A large z-score alone is not a reason to expect mean reversion; the separation may reflect new information.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, COTY continues to weaken relative to ELF, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long COTY / short ELF

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for COTY to outperform ELF; COTY can rise faster, fall less, or rise while ELF falls. The pair loses ground when ELF outperforms COTY.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWatch, do not assume convergenceโ€ to confirmed convergence. Wait for the daily gap to narrow and for COTY to improve or ELF to lose support.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study COTY alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in COTY. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and COTY-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving COTY price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study ELF alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in ELF. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in ELF must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

1.71ฯƒ from the centre

Example: COTY +5%, ELF +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 1.205, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioCOTYELFNew gap
Both rise5%2%1.71ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%1.67ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%1.61ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%1.95ฯƒ
Current distance: 1.78ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 1.205 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • ELF Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

1.205ร—

A 1% move in ELF is associated with approximately 1.205% in COTY in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.39

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability98/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life18.5 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings11

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context69/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 0 / 3

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 3 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
0.0%
Median time among resolved cases
Not observed
Largest further extension
0.99ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-10-06.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-05.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-30.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-24.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-18.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-17.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-15.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-14.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-09.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-04.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-01.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context