Basic Materials ยท Chemicals

ASIX relative to OLN

AdvanSix Inc / Olin Corporation

ASIX is relatively depressed; OLN is relatively extended against their shared history.

ASIX chart โ†—OLN chart โ†—More ASIX pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation -0.99ฯƒHistorical percentile 18
Relationship quality 58/100
Evidence alignment 50/100
Stability 26/10017 centre crossings
Break risk 49/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending0.77ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

ASIX / OLN gap -0.99ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, ASIX is extended relative to OLN; below zero, ASIX is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, ASIX is extended relative to OLN; below zero, ASIX is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateASIX / OLN gap
29 Sep 20230.74ฯƒ
6 Oct 20230.34ฯƒ
13 Oct 20230.27ฯƒ
20 Oct 20230.16ฯƒ
27 Oct 20230.34ฯƒ
3 Nov 2023-0.34ฯƒ
10 Nov 2023-0.68ฯƒ
17 Nov 2023-0.11ฯƒ
24 Nov 2023-0.25ฯƒ
1 Dec 2023-0.28ฯƒ
8 Dec 2023-0.23ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.22ฯƒ
22 Dec 20230.55ฯƒ
29 Dec 20230.32ฯƒ
5 Jan 2024-0.06ฯƒ
12 Jan 2024-0.62ฯƒ
19 Jan 2024-0.83ฯƒ
26 Jan 2024-0.71ฯƒ
2 Feb 2024-0.86ฯƒ
9 Feb 2024-0.62ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.13ฯƒ
23 Feb 2024-0.12ฯƒ
1 Mar 2024-0.38ฯƒ
8 Mar 2024-0.59ฯƒ
15 Mar 2024-0.83ฯƒ
22 Mar 2024-0.62ฯƒ
29 Mar 2024-0.21ฯƒ
5 Apr 2024-0.25ฯƒ
12 Apr 2024-0.32ฯƒ
19 Apr 2024-0.38ฯƒ
26 Apr 2024-0.69ฯƒ
3 May 2024-1.90ฯƒ
10 May 2024-1.11ฯƒ
17 May 2024-1.11ฯƒ
24 May 2024-1.60ฯƒ
31 May 2024-1.36ฯƒ
7 Jun 2024-1.22ฯƒ
14 Jun 2024-1.43ฯƒ
21 Jun 2024-1.44ฯƒ
28 Jun 2024-1.28ฯƒ
5 Jul 2024-1.76ฯƒ
12 Jul 2024-1.12ฯƒ
19 Jul 2024-0.36ฯƒ
26 Jul 20240.24ฯƒ
2 Aug 20240.25ฯƒ
9 Aug 20240.54ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.93ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.99ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.85ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.29ฯƒ
13 Sep 20240.33ฯƒ
20 Sep 20240.51ฯƒ
27 Sep 20240.81ฯƒ
4 Oct 20241.21ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.92ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.80ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.81ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.86ฯƒ
8 Nov 20241.18ฯƒ
15 Nov 20241.04ฯƒ
22 Nov 20241.44ฯƒ
29 Nov 20241.64ฯƒ
6 Dec 20241.49ฯƒ
13 Dec 20241.62ฯƒ
20 Dec 20241.16ฯƒ
27 Dec 20241.16ฯƒ
3 Jan 20251.12ฯƒ
10 Jan 20250.92ฯƒ
17 Jan 20252.02ฯƒ
24 Jan 20252.11ฯƒ
31 Jan 20252.30ฯƒ
7 Feb 20251.91ฯƒ
14 Feb 20252.06ฯƒ
21 Feb 20252.15ฯƒ
28 Feb 20251.81ฯƒ
7 Mar 20251.44ฯƒ
14 Mar 20250.80ฯƒ
21 Mar 20250.43ฯƒ
28 Mar 20250.33ฯƒ
4 Apr 20250.07ฯƒ
11 Apr 20250.07ฯƒ
18 Apr 2025-0.18ฯƒ
25 Apr 20250.11ฯƒ
2 May 20250.64ฯƒ
9 May 20250.86ฯƒ
16 May 20251.03ฯƒ
23 May 20251.12ฯƒ
30 May 20251.26ฯƒ
6 Jun 20251.30ฯƒ
13 Jun 20251.29ฯƒ
20 Jun 20251.24ฯƒ
27 Jun 20251.33ฯƒ
4 Jul 20251.50ฯƒ
11 Jul 20250.83ฯƒ
18 Jul 20250.63ฯƒ
25 Jul 20250.51ฯƒ
1 Aug 2025-0.10ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-0.62ฯƒ
15 Aug 2025-0.34ฯƒ
22 Aug 2025-0.01ฯƒ
29 Aug 20250.12ฯƒ
5 Sep 2025-0.15ฯƒ
12 Sep 2025-0.15ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-0.31ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-0.65ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-0.77ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-0.05ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-0.52ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-0.42ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-0.62ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-1.88ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-1.81ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-2.17ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-2.02ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-1.65ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-1.72ฯƒ
19 Dec 2025-1.39ฯƒ
26 Dec 2025-1.09ฯƒ
2 Jan 2026-1.24ฯƒ
9 Jan 2026-0.96ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-1.54ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-1.57ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-1.77ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-1.05ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-1.10ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.90ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-1.38ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.49ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.20ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.23ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.56ฯƒ
3 Apr 20260.98ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.53ฯƒ
17 Apr 20260.01ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.56ฯƒ
1 May 20260.99ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.51ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.05ฯƒ
22 May 20260.29ฯƒ
29 May 20260.37ฯƒ
5 Jun 20260.17ฯƒ
12 Jun 20260.56ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-0.14ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.04ฯƒ
3 Jul 20260.26ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.17ฯƒ
17 Jul 20260.13ฯƒ
24 Jul 20260.12ฯƒ
31 Jul 20260.33ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-1.15ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-0.97ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-0.75ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-0.90ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-0.51ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-0.86ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.99ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

ASIX 56.41OLN 36.23
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 40.060.080.0100.0120.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateASIXOLN
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202392.7993.94
13 Oct 202392.6396.28
20 Oct 202390.0392.40
27 Oct 202389.3884.27
3 Nov 202383.2789.36
10 Nov 202379.1587.98
17 Nov 202387.4494.37
24 Nov 202386.1895.36
1 Dec 202386.4097.17
8 Dec 202387.89100.46
15 Dec 202395.08105.93
22 Dec 2023100.07108.34
29 Dec 202397.03108.44
5 Jan 202491.49105.77
12 Jan 202484.40104.04
19 Jan 202481.67102.62
26 Jan 202485.27110.86
2 Feb 202481.55103.22
9 Feb 202484.20103.08
16 Feb 202493.85105.63
23 Feb 202490.81105.71
1 Mar 202488.83109.89
8 Mar 202487.56114.61
15 Mar 202485.54117.51
22 Mar 202487.11114.10
29 Mar 202493.16118.62
5 Apr 202492.68118.34
12 Apr 202489.45109.80
19 Apr 202488.34108.11
26 Apr 202484.73107.89
3 May 202472.09108.19
10 May 202481.05111.98
17 May 202481.47113.68
24 May 202475.53110.14
31 May 202477.70108.84
7 Jun 202477.27101.37
14 Jun 202475.11101.17
21 Jun 202474.4899.33
28 Jun 202475.1495.46
5 Jul 202469.7392.57
12 Jul 202477.2797.51
19 Jul 202485.5697.41
26 Jul 202490.3590.28
2 Aug 202489.3787.00
9 Aug 202491.2782.70
16 Aug 202497.6686.61
23 Aug 202499.9490.43
30 Aug 202497.4788.85
6 Sep 202488.9984.61
13 Sep 202490.4887.40
20 Sep 202493.4489.72
27 Sep 2024100.8099.63
4 Oct 2024105.5197.62
11 Oct 2024101.1696.46
18 Oct 202499.2195.62
25 Oct 202495.2984.29
1 Nov 202495.4583.13
8 Nov 2024102.2890.11
15 Nov 202498.2884.61
22 Nov 2024105.0187.64
29 Nov 2024107.6387.06
6 Dec 2024104.3584.37
13 Dec 2024102.5976.27
20 Dec 202492.9868.38
27 Dec 202493.3469.03
3 Jan 202591.4966.15
10 Jan 202587.8463.37
17 Jan 2025104.6869.03
24 Jan 2025104.8566.91
31 Jan 2025103.6959.88
7 Feb 202597.1657.69
14 Feb 202598.4256.58
21 Feb 202598.6854.91
28 Feb 202592.5551.90
7 Mar 202587.1150.28
14 Mar 202580.2350.78
21 Mar 202576.7651.50
28 Mar 202575.3050.63
4 Apr 202567.9241.42
11 Apr 202568.3642.10
18 Apr 202566.5643.05
25 Apr 202570.3945.34
2 May 202575.8645.75
9 May 202577.1043.95
16 May 202578.8643.96
23 May 202577.4140.25
30 May 202578.9640.38
6 Jun 202580.1741.52
13 Jun 202580.5742.40
20 Jun 202578.6540.19
27 Jun 202581.1142.50
4 Jul 202584.9445.60
11 Jul 202577.6845.52
18 Jul 202573.8242.40
25 Jul 202573.6544.23
1 Aug 202564.4537.92
8 Aug 202560.8939.36
15 Aug 202565.8144.31
22 Aug 202570.7848.20
29 Aug 202572.6849.65
5 Sep 202571.7753.11
12 Sep 202572.7255.36
19 Sep 202569.1350.68
26 Sep 202565.9150.28
3 Oct 202566.3854.06
10 Oct 202569.6746.75
17 Oct 202566.4849.12
24 Oct 202568.0150.49
31 Oct 202562.9643.44
7 Nov 202552.0940.71
14 Nov 202553.2142.22
21 Nov 202550.4141.51
28 Nov 202552.7144.70
5 Dec 202554.8643.34
12 Dec 202555.8246.98
19 Dec 202556.7143.19
26 Dec 202559.5244.25
2 Jan 202658.9745.65
9 Jan 202663.3250.54
16 Jan 202658.2249.59
23 Jan 202658.4650.84
30 Jan 202654.2544.08
6 Feb 202663.3652.60
13 Feb 202663.8754.82
20 Feb 202664.2851.56
27 Feb 202661.0653.74
6 Mar 202667.1649.91
13 Mar 202671.1552.82
20 Mar 202669.9450.77
27 Mar 202683.1061.96
3 Apr 202687.4561.02
10 Apr 202682.6861.83
17 Apr 202674.5055.72
24 Apr 202680.8957.17
1 May 202687.6261.10
8 May 202670.1857.32
15 May 202674.6757.61
22 May 202677.4655.99
29 May 202678.0955.65
5 Jun 202674.7552.79
12 Jun 202679.3754.06
19 Jun 202669.1147.35
26 Jun 202670.5446.74
3 Jul 202670.6043.11
10 Jul 202670.5744.49
17 Jul 202671.6547.30
24 Jul 202672.5549.34
31 Jul 202669.1439.36
7 Aug 202656.8039.53
14 Aug 202658.7340.62
21 Aug 202659.7839.13
28 Aug 202657.3836.89
4 Sep 202660.7237.37
11 Sep 202657.7637.00
18 Sep 202656.4136.23
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

ASIX / OLN gap 0.77ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, ASIX is extended relative to OLN; below zero, ASIX is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, ASIX is extended relative to OLN; below zero, ASIX is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateASIX / OLN gap
22 Jan 2026-2.42ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-2.30ฯƒ
26 Jan 2026-2.38ฯƒ
27 Jan 2026-2.34ฯƒ
28 Jan 2026-2.40ฯƒ
29 Jan 2026-2.51ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-2.14ฯƒ
2 Feb 2026-2.17ฯƒ
3 Feb 2026-1.82ฯƒ
4 Feb 2026-1.98ฯƒ
5 Feb 2026-1.57ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-1.57ฯƒ
9 Feb 2026-1.25ฯƒ
10 Feb 2026-1.60ฯƒ
11 Feb 2026-1.77ฯƒ
12 Feb 2026-1.83ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-1.78ฯƒ
17 Feb 2026-1.54ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-2.06ฯƒ
19 Feb 2026-1.73ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-1.24ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-1.46ฯƒ
24 Feb 2026-1.80ฯƒ
25 Feb 2026-1.55ฯƒ
26 Feb 2026-1.69ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-2.18ฯƒ
2 Mar 2026-1.84ฯƒ
3 Mar 2026-1.53ฯƒ
4 Mar 2026-0.69ฯƒ
5 Mar 2026-0.22ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.45ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-0.99ฯƒ
10 Mar 2026-1.04ฯƒ
11 Mar 2026-1.23ฯƒ
12 Mar 2026-0.32ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.17ฯƒ
16 Mar 2026-0.21ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-0.39ฯƒ
18 Mar 2026-0.41ฯƒ
19 Mar 2026-0.17ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-0.08ฯƒ
23 Mar 20260.06ฯƒ
24 Mar 20260.33ฯƒ
25 Mar 20260.46ฯƒ
26 Mar 20260.82ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.53ฯƒ
30 Mar 20260.59ฯƒ
31 Mar 20260.51ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.99ฯƒ
2 Apr 20261.27ฯƒ
6 Apr 20260.76ฯƒ
7 Apr 20260.63ฯƒ
8 Apr 20260.73ฯƒ
9 Apr 20260.31ฯƒ
10 Apr 20260.48ฯƒ
13 Apr 20260.34ฯƒ
14 Apr 20260.36ฯƒ
15 Apr 20260.32ฯƒ
16 Apr 20260.62ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.01ฯƒ
20 Apr 20260.14ฯƒ
21 Apr 20260.22ฯƒ
22 Apr 20260.40ฯƒ
23 Apr 20260.72ฯƒ
24 Apr 20260.80ฯƒ
27 Apr 20260.89ฯƒ
28 Apr 20260.95ฯƒ
29 Apr 20261.16ฯƒ
30 Apr 20260.97ฯƒ
1 May 20261.28ฯƒ
4 May 20261.29ฯƒ
5 May 20261.64ฯƒ
6 May 20261.13ฯƒ
7 May 20261.08ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.96ฯƒ
11 May 2026-0.12ฯƒ
12 May 20260.08ฯƒ
13 May 2026-0.20ฯƒ
14 May 2026-0.39ฯƒ
15 May 2026-0.24ฯƒ
18 May 2026-0.20ฯƒ
19 May 2026-0.09ฯƒ
20 May 2026-0.13ฯƒ
21 May 20260.19ฯƒ
22 May 20260.43ฯƒ
26 May 20260.56ฯƒ
27 May 20260.65ฯƒ
28 May 20260.66ฯƒ
29 May 20260.57ฯƒ
1 Jun 20260.53ฯƒ
2 Jun 20260.67ฯƒ
3 Jun 20260.45ฯƒ
4 Jun 20260.64ฯƒ
5 Jun 20260.44ฯƒ
8 Jun 20260.45ฯƒ
9 Jun 20260.46ฯƒ
10 Jun 20260.60ฯƒ
11 Jun 20260.55ฯƒ
12 Jun 20260.99ฯƒ
15 Jun 20260.68ฯƒ
16 Jun 20260.56ฯƒ
17 Jun 20260.53ฯƒ
18 Jun 20260.30ฯƒ
22 Jun 20260.22ฯƒ
23 Jun 20260.17ฯƒ
24 Jun 20260.60ฯƒ
25 Jun 20260.51ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.64ฯƒ
29 Jun 20260.64ฯƒ
30 Jun 20261.10ฯƒ
1 Jul 20261.17ฯƒ
2 Jul 20261.27ฯƒ
6 Jul 20261.26ฯƒ
7 Jul 20261.41ฯƒ
8 Jul 20261.03ฯƒ
9 Jul 20261.01ฯƒ
10 Jul 20261.02ฯƒ
13 Jul 20261.24ฯƒ
14 Jul 20261.12ฯƒ
15 Jul 20260.86ฯƒ
16 Jul 20260.85ฯƒ
17 Jul 20260.86ฯƒ
20 Jul 20260.59ฯƒ
21 Jul 20260.92ฯƒ
22 Jul 20260.74ฯƒ
23 Jul 20260.67ฯƒ
24 Jul 20260.61ฯƒ
27 Jul 20260.58ฯƒ
28 Jul 20260.87ฯƒ
29 Jul 20260.39ฯƒ
30 Jul 20260.69ฯƒ
31 Jul 20261.73ฯƒ
3 Aug 20261.70ฯƒ
4 Aug 20261.52ฯƒ
5 Aug 20261.51ฯƒ
6 Aug 20261.57ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-0.84ฯƒ
10 Aug 2026-1.10ฯƒ
11 Aug 2026-0.84ฯƒ
12 Aug 2026-1.39ฯƒ
13 Aug 2026-0.90ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-0.54ฯƒ
17 Aug 2026-0.75ฯƒ
18 Aug 2026-0.53ฯƒ
19 Aug 2026-0.26ฯƒ
20 Aug 2026-0.03ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-0.04ฯƒ
24 Aug 20260.03ฯƒ
25 Aug 2026-0.21ฯƒ
26 Aug 2026-0.15ฯƒ
27 Aug 2026-0.25ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-0.10ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.03ฯƒ
1 Sep 20260.11ฯƒ
2 Sep 20260.49ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.50ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.50ฯƒ
8 Sep 2026-0.10ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.06ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.09ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-0.04ฯƒ
14 Sep 2026-0.10ฯƒ
15 Sep 20260.05ฯƒ
16 Sep 20260.06ฯƒ
17 Sep 20260.17ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.17ฯƒ
21 Sep 2026-0.01ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.22ฯƒ
23 Sep 20260.10ฯƒ
24 Sep 2026-0.26ฯƒ
25 Sep 2026-0.29ฯƒ
28 Sep 2026-0.14ฯƒ
29 Sep 20260.34ฯƒ
30 Sep 20260.23ฯƒ
1 Oct 20260.06ฯƒ
2 Oct 20260.27ฯƒ
5 Oct 20260.29ฯƒ
6 Oct 20260.48ฯƒ
7 Oct 20260.57ฯƒ
8 Oct 20260.77ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowASIXDepressed legOLNExtended legReturn differenceASIX less OLN
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-18-2.3%-2.1%-0.3 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-5.6%-7.4%1.8 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-18-18.4%-23.5%5.1 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in ASIX / OLN?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long ASIX / short OLN

The proposed pair would look for ASIX to outperform OLN, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship58/100

Stability 26/100 ยท break risk 49/100

02 ยท Separation0.99ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence50/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

The cleaner confirmation is a narrowing spread led by weakness in the extended leg rather than strength in both securities.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that ASIX is improving relative to OLN. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means ASIX rises more than OLN, falls less than OLN, or rises while OLN falls. If OLN outperforms ASIX, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A fresh strengthening in the extended leg can prolong the separation and increase short-side risk.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, ASIX continues to weaken relative to OLN, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long ASIX / short OLN

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for ASIX to outperform OLN; ASIX can rise faster, fall less, or rise while OLN falls. The pair loses ground when OLN outperforms ASIX.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWait for the daily turnโ€ to confirmed convergence. The clearest next checkpoint is a sustained turn from a stable or extending daily gap to a narrowing one.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study ASIX alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in ASIX. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and ASIX-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving ASIX price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study OLN alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in OLN. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in OLN must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.67ฯƒ from the centre

Example: ASIX +5%, OLN +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 0.336, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioASIXOLNNew gap
Both rise5%2%0.67ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%1.01ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.69ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%1.29ฯƒ
Current distance: 0.99ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 0.336 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • OLN Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.336ร—

A 1% move in OLN is associated with approximately 0.336% in ASIX in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.56

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability26/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life8.3 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings17

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context54/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 2 / 3

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 3 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
66.7%
Median time among resolved cases
5.5 weeks
Largest further extension
2.06ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-10-02.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-10-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-29.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-28.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-25.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-24.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-21.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap narrowing through 2026-09-18.

Relationship discovered

Published as Leader rollover after the completed 2026-09-18 observation.

Relationship retired

Removed from the current map because the relationship no longer passed the publication checks.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-01.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-08-28.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context