Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
35
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 11 September 2026
United States US Industrials Industry
Airlines
For the week ending 11 September 2026, Airlines declined 4.11% with 1 advancing, 16 declining, and 0 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Unresolved
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
35
technical evidence
Index666.14
1 week-4.11%
Breadth6%
Members17
Country
🇺🇸 United States · US
Sector
Industrials
Universe
NASDAQ, NYSE
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Unresolved
3 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-8.0%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
75%
Negative regime, horizons divided
Participation
6%
1 advancing, 16 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
33
Breadth
23
Persistence
46
Relative
30
Risk quality
58
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 27 percentage points.
- Positive contribution is concentrated in a small leadership cohort.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
State age3 weeks
Trend gateMixed
Fan width8.21%
Fast versus slow change-8.07 pts
Above 17%
Below 67%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
75% agreement
Negative regime, horizons divided
The 52-week trend is negative, while shorter horizons remain mixed.
13-week
-12.1%
26-week
6.8%
39-week
-12.9%
52-week
-9.2%
Constituent trend persistence
88% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
60%positive
Coherent positive0%
Coherent negative13%
Average horizon agreement65%
Positive horizon share42%
Weakening positives8
Repairing negatives1
15 constituents measured as of 11 Sep 2026. Median trend age is 32 weeks.
Custom stage map
88% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
47%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing13%2 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing20%3 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution20%3 securities
Stage 4 · Declining47%7 securities
Re-acceleration watch0
Transition watch2
Relative strength leaders0%
Fair Value repairs0
Measured as of 11 Sep 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
79/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Industrials
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Industrials. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index97.4
13-week trend105.9
4-week trend change-0.56%
Weekly peer rank19 of 24
1 week
-1.7 pts
relative
4 weeks
-4.5 pts
relative
13 weeks
-4.7 pts
relative
26 weeks
2.8 pts
relative
52 weeks
-6.3 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
6%
advanced
- Advancing
- 1
- Declining
- 16
- Unchanged
- 0
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility40.2%
Drawdown from 52-week high-23.5%
Positive weeks, last 1346%
Current directional run1 week
Turnover versus 13-week norm52%
Breadth impulse-38.0 pts
Cross-section
17 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -4.9%
Median -2.2%
Q3 -1.4%
Average winner0.1%
Average loser-4.4%
Dispersion5.4 pts
Top-five upside share100%
Top-five capital share82%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
55out of 100
More positive than negative
Positive company scores outnumber negative ones, but the overall score remains close to 50.
Evidence quality
38/100 confidence
Coverage before conviction
Qualified companies318% of measured constituents
Articles152100% direct company evidence
Publishers48Independent sources represented
Latest evidence17 SepFreshness is weighted in the score
Constructive 33%Balanced 67%Cautious 0%
Price confirms news0
Price disagrees1
Negative news absorbed0
Positive but stretched0
Constructive edge
Strongest qualified tone
Narrative risk
Weakest qualified tone
Only fresh, quality-controlled company evidence is included. Industry and sector context is down-weighted and cannot create a directional group conclusion on its own.
Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 17 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.