Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
43
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Specialty Retail
For the week ending 25 September 2026, Specialty Retail advanced 1.17% with 2 advancing, 1 declining, and 1 unchanged constituents.
- Index level
- 2,163.40 Index points · base 1,000
- Weekly return
- 1.17%
- Measured companies
- 4 4 in the index universe
- Weekly breadth
- 2 up / 1 down 1 unchanged
- Weekly peer rank
- 1 of 5
Universe country-listed · Equity onlyPrice basis Adjusted weekly closeConstruction Capped equal-weight returns · Weekly rebuild
Explore Consumer Cyclical →
156 completed weeks
Specialty Retail price and trend
Current architecture
Downward Expansion
3 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-10.5%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
50%
Positive regime, horizons divided
Participation
50%
2 advancing, 1 declining
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive Transition Defensive
Weekly index closes and the Trend Line. Dashed grey shows the latest Fair Value reference; it is not a historical forecast. Enable the other overlays for more detail.
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
16
Breadth
46
Persistence
50
Relative
75
Risk quality
55
What supports the view
- Medium-term relative returns and peer standing remain constructive.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The current 13-week parent-relative trend is weakening.
- Positive contribution is concentrated in a small leadership cohort.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The activity fan is bearishly ordered below the Trend Line with price accepted beneath it.
State age3 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width7.82%
Fast versus slow change-2.18 pts
Above 0%
Below 83%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
50% agreement
Positive regime, horizons divided
The 52-week trend is positive, although not every measured horizon confirms it.
13-week
10.1%
26-week
-14.6%
39-week
-22.4%
52-week
2.3%
Constituent trend persistence
Is the index move broadly durable?
Constituent persistence coverage is still building.
Custom stage map
Where constituents sit in the cycle
Stage Analysis coverage is still building.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Consumer Cyclical
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
The relative index starts at 100. Above 100 means this group has outperformed Consumer Cyclical since the first plotted date; below 100 means it has lagged. A rising line can show relative improvement even when both markets are falling.
Relative index185.9
13-week trend194.0
4-week trend change-2.02%
Weekly peer rank1 of 5
1 week
1.2 pts
relative
4 weeks
1.4 pts
relative
13 weeks
-5.9 pts
relative
26 weeks
-6.5 pts
relative
52 weeks
12.7 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Balanced
Participation quality
50%
advanced
- Advancing
- 2
- Declining
- 1
- Unchanged
- 1
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility42.1%
Drawdown from 52-week high-28.5%
Positive weeks, last 1354%
Current directional run2 weeks
Turnover versus 13-week norm121%
Breadth impulse8.3 pts
Cross-section
4 measured
Return distribution
0Below −5%0%
0−5% to −1%0%
3−1% to +1%75%
0+1% to +5%0%
1Above +5%25%
Weekly returns across measured companies. Bars are scaled to the largest group; percentages show each group’s share.
Q1 -0.2%
Median 0.0%
Q3 1.4%
Average winner2.7%
Average loser-0.6%
Dispersion2.4 pts
Top-five upside share100%
Top-five capital share100%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week price change
Index price change over 30 weeks, or the available history if shorter. Green above zero; red below.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
Within the same sector
Where are returns broadly supported?
Compare the weekly result with the share of companies advancing.
↑ Companies advancing · 50% marks half of measured companies
−1.9%Weekly index return · zero at centre+1.9%
Compare return with participationHover or focus a marker for the full reading. Select it to open the report.
Markers show weekly return rank. Hover or focus for the name. Fine lines connect separated markers to their actual positions. Up, down and unchanged companies all count in participation.
| Rank / Industry | Weekly return | Advancing share | Up / down | Companies | Week ending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Specialty RetailConsumer Cyclical | 1.17% | 50% | 2 / 1 | 4 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 2Department StoresConsumer Cyclical | 0.34% | 50% | 3 / 3 | 6 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 3Apparel RetailConsumer Cyclical | -0.25% | 0% | 0 / 2 | 5 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 4Packaging & ContainersConsumer Cyclical | -1.82% | 50% | 2 / 2 | 4 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 5Auto & Truck DealershipsConsumer Cyclical | -1.90% | 0% | 0 / 3 | 3 | 25 Sep 2026 |
South Africa · Weekly return relationships
Which markets move together?
Compare sectors and industries within South Africa over the same 52-week window. Strong positive relationships can mean that apparently different holdings share the same risk.
Closest: Financial Services and Consumer Cyclical (0.96; 52 weeks).
10 indexes · 45 qualifying pairsClosest: Reit - Diversified and Reit - Retail (0.93; 52 weeks).
31 indexes · 465 qualifying pairs−1 · Opposite0 · No linear link+1 · Together
Read the market at the top against the market at the left. The diagonal compares each index with itself. Up to 10 indexes are shown, ordered by constituent coverage. Select a cell to inspect a pair, or use the selectors for other markets.
Closest to the reference
Pearson correlation of weekly percentage returns through 25 Sep 2026: +1 means moving together, 0 little linear relationship, −1 moving in opposite directions. Requires 39 matching observations for the 52-week comparison and 10 for the recent 13 weeks. Missing weeks are excluded, not filled with zero. Constant series have no defined correlation. These are local-currency, capped equal-weight indexes; sectors and their component industries overlap. A lower correlation does not establish a hedge.
Sector correlations compare broad business groups. Industry correlations reveal closer links within and across sectors. The selectors retain all qualified groups; the matrix shows the ten largest by company coverage.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 4 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 4 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.