Weekly Chart PackCompleted weekly market data ยท Independent research
NASDAQ ยท Equity ยท United States
MYFW
First Western Financial Inc
Financial ServicesBanks - Regional
First Western Financial, Inc., a financial holding company, provides wealth management, private banking, personal trust, investment management, home loan, and institutional asset management services. The company is headquartered in Denver, Colorado.
Last updated
9 Oct 2026
Exchange
NASDAQ ยท NASDAQ
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Banks - Regional
Currency
USD
Market capitalisation
300,180,063
Fair value reference
21.84
Next-week expectancy
Positive ยท 55.57%
Executive chart read
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-10-09, MYFW fell 6.69%, moving from 31.97 to 29.83. The latest weekly close is above the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is active on the latest week and was active in 12 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -4.94 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -1.01 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.57% based on similar historical setup states.
Week Ending
9 Oct 2026
Latest Close
29.83
12-Week Change
-6.69%
Trend Signal
Active
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 55.57%
Signal Weeks
12 of 12
Chart views
Completed weekly prices ยท Select a view to explore the evidence.
Weekly Trend
All chart layers are hidden. Open Chart options to select a layer or choose Reset.
Weekly Close
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity LinesDirection Line
Analysis panels
Choose up to 6 panels. Drag panel headers to reorder.
Price Sponsorship Indicator
What it is
Price Sponsorship Indicator PSI
PSI compares the weekly price move with the market activity behind it. It shows whether price has broad support or whether that support is weakening.
Move across either panel to inspect a week
PricePositive trendNegative trendPossible changeStrong supportPositive supportWeak support
What it shows
Price and the support behind it
Price above, support below. Both panels follow the same completed weeks. Use the controls to show or hide trend segments and support averages.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-10-09
Support is stabilising
PSI is stabilising, but the direction is not yet clear. The next completed weeks will show whether support strengthens or fades.
PSI score
46/1005 completed weeks
Recent support
+10Limited
Readings pointing the same way
75%Little clear activity
01Support buildsGreen bars rise above zero.
02Price confirmsPrice rises with positive bars.
03Support holdsPositive bars remain with price.
04WarningBars weaken before or with price.
What it shows
Is this move specific to the ticker or shared by the market?
This compares the ticker's PSI reading with how widely stocks on its exchange are moving together. It does not change PSI.
Stocks moving together28/100
Moving together ยท less together
Ticker and market
The ticker reading is mixed
PSI has no clear direction. The wider market adds context, but does not change that mixed reading.
PSI
-9.0
Market togetherness
28/100
Ticker supported, market mixed
Positive PSI without a strong shared market move.
Ticker supported, market moving together
Positive PSI within a strong shared market move.
Ticker weak, market mixed
Weak PSI without matching broad market weakness.
Current contextTicker weak, broad market weak
Weak PSI within a strong shared market decline.
Second check
Does Market Dynamics agree?
PSI shows support for the price move. Market Dynamics provides a separate check on whether conditions beneath price point the same way.
What it shows
The two readings are mixed
Neither reading gives a clear direction.
Current reading
-1.01
Four-week change
-0.47
Sharemaestro ยท MYFW ยท Weekly price reversals
RMI Reversal Map Indicator
See where price breaks a previous high or low, turns back, and confirms a change in direction.
โ Broke a prior high / lowโ Closed back across the levelโฒ / โผ Reversal confirmedโ โ Confirmation levelโ Average price since the sweep (VWAP)
Observed follow-through
What happened after confirmation?
Direction-adjusted price moves from the next weekly open. Only outcomes completed by the replay date are included. Before costs; no exit rules applied. Overlapping observations are not independent trades or a forecast.
Dated observations
Setup journal
Reading the chart
The chart opens on the latest 152 weeks. Choose 52 or 104 weeks for a closer view. Only confirmed reversals are shown. Clear confirmations is the stricter starting view; All confirmations also includes reversals that did not meet every strength check. Green marks a confirmed turn up; red marks a confirmed turn down. Dashed outlines mark historical setups. A zone marks where the reversal developed; its end does not mean the whole price move ended. Select a journal entry to review a past setup, or use the replay slider to see what was known at an earlier close.
Annotations adds dates and explanations for every visible zone. A separate Follow-up complete marker shows when eight weeks of tracking finished. The price move may continue beyond it. The numbered notes below the chart also let you select a zone to inspect it. Confirmed reversals can fail; failed setups stay in the history. Follow-through figures describe past price moves before costs; they are not a forecast or trading record.
Results use completed weekly prices. Missing or revised source data can affect the saved history.
Adaptive Price Envelope
Price, volatility and confirmation
Adaptive Price Envelope APE
See where price sits inside boundaries that adjust to completed-week direction and volatility, then check whether the wider evidence confirms the move.
Value migration45.4%
Recent centre versus prior year
Value breadth77.3%
Width of the accepted-value range
Supporting evidence
Acceptance migration and auction runway
Rolling market memory and the nearest established acceptance above and below the current price.
Is market memory moving?
Accepted-value migration
Each column is a rolling one-year auction. Brighter areas show stronger price acceptance.
Where is the next market memory?
Auction runway
The next established shelf is materially farther below than above.
Above31.00Established market memory sits 3.9% above the latest close.
Below22.93Established market memory sits 23.1% below the latest close.
Decision map
What would confirm or challenge the current interpretation?
Sustained weekly closes above26.74
Higher-value acceptance
Holding above this boundary while the acceptance centre rises would strengthen the higher-value interpretation.
Primary market-memory magnet21.13
Rotation toward value
This is the centre of the three-year auction and the principal reference if price rotates back through value.
Sustained weekly closes below15.08
Lower-value acceptance
Holding below this boundary while the acceptance centre falls would strengthen the lower-value interpretation.
Decision context
Structural references and cross-signal agreement
The closest market-memory levels, the evidence that agrees or disagrees, and the limits of the current interpretation.
Market memory
Nearest structural nodes
These are historical acceptance references, not live resting orders.
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
31.00
3.9%
Low-acceptance corridorHistorically limited acceptance makes this a potential fast-travel area.
27.41
-8.1%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
22.93
-23.1%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
21.13
-29.2%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
17.55
-41.2%
Low-acceptance corridorHistorically limited acceptance makes this a potential fast-travel area.
15.75
-47.2%
Cross-signal agreement
Does the wider Sharemaestro picture agree?
Agreement strengthens context; disagreement identifies where the thesis is vulnerable.
Auction locationShows where the latest close sits relative to established accepted value.Above accepted value
Accepted-value migrationCompares the recent acceptance centre with the preceding one-year auction.Higher
30-week trendThe latest close is 0.6% above the trend line.Price above
Fair-value positionMarket price is 36.6% above the current fair-value reference.Above
Point & Figure structureConfirms whether reversal structure agrees with the current auction direction.Downside breakdown
Earnings repricingShows whether accepted market value is developing with or against the earnings relationship.Expectations ahead
Higher value accepted
The recent auction has built a higher acceptance centre and price is currently above established three-year value.
More room below
The next established shelf is materially farther below than above.
Established market memory
The three-year acceptance centre at 21.13 remains the dominant rotational reference.
Security-specific analogues
How comparable auction states resolved
Fewer than four non-overlapping comparable episodes exist in the visible history.
2 comparable non-overlapping episodes are visible; at least four are required before outcomes are summarised.
Price Action
Completed weekly market tape
Price Action
A deep view of how price is behaving against its own completed history, trend, structural levels and participation.
Price, structure and participation
Where price advanced, failed, reclaimed or lost important ground
Candles preserve the completed weekly tape. Selected annotations identify meaningful finished events and point directly to the week concerned.
Up weekDown weekTrend referenceCompleted supportCompleted resistanceVolumeTypical volumePublished event
Current weekly interpretationDeclining structure with weak close
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range. Price is above its completed-week trend reference and that reference is rising.
Full context ยท Mixed confirmation
Current structureDeclining structure
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range.
Trend relationshipAbove a rising trend
Price is above its completed-week trend reference and that reference is rising.
Support and resistanceSupport 22.02 ยท Resistance 30.72
Nearest completed structural references around the latest close.
Participation qualityLight participation
The latest weekly move occurred on comparatively light participation.
What happened this week?
The latest completed candle
The latest week is separated into price change, candle character, closing position and path quality.
Weekly move-0.86%
Latest close versus the preceding completed close.
Candle characterWeak close
Price declined and finished in the lower part of the completed weekly range.
Where the week closedLower part of the range
The close finished at 22% of the completed weekly range.
Path qualityMixed confirmation
Recent price structure and the longer trend relationship are not fully aligned.
Current evaluation
What the weekly tape says now
The interpretation combines completed price structure, trend relationship, participation and path quality.
What supports it
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range.
What would improve it
A sustained close above the nearest completed resistance, supported by firmer participation, would improve confirmation.
What could weaken it
A sustained loss of the nearest completed support would materially weaken the current price structure.
What to watch next
Trend relationship is above a rising trend; participation is light participation, and path quality is mixed confirmation.
Statistical perspective
Where the latest close sits in its own completed history
These observations describe the available record. They are market context, not predictions of the next move.
Position in completed history83% of range
The latest close's location between the lowest and highest completed closes available for this market.
Distance from completed high-10.4%
How far the latest close sits below the highest completed close in the available history.
Recovery from completed low+140.8%
How far the latest close has advanced from the lowest completed close in the available history.
Latest move versus typical0.3ร typical
The absolute latest weekly move compared with completed weekly moves available before it.
Completed event history
What changed, and when
Only selected completed events are shown. Each annotation is descriptive, not a standalone instruction.
Upside structure cleared
The weekly close moved above the preceding completed price structure.
14 weeks ago
High-participation reversal
Price changed weekly direction with elevated participation.
23 weeks ago
Trend reclaimed
The weekly close moved back above the completed trend reference.
29 weeks ago
Range
Sharemaestro Range
Where price is trading
The fitted range, accepted trading area and strongest price levels are calculated automatically from completed weekly market data.
Current stateBelow the trend range
Range pressureCurrent range pressure ยท 50 is balanced
Weekly closeFitted rangeActivity ribbonEstimated activity at priceAutomatic level
52-week position
63.3%
Low to high
Accepted price
22.90
Latest versus accepted: 30.25%
Fitted direction
Rising
0.57% per week
Range pressure
38/100
Balanced pressure
Range condition
Contracting
0.65ร normal range
Automatic structure
Strongest price levels
Structural price levels, distance from close and supporting evidence
Reference
Price
From close
Evidence
Touches
Support
22.00
-26.3%
74/100
3
Support
23.44
-21.4%
100/100
8
Support
27.79
-6.8%
37/100
2
Current pivot
30.00
0.6%
70/100
4
Resistance
30.82
3.3%
81/100
3
Resistance
33.19
11.3%
39/100
1
Current reading
What the range shows
Current positionBelow the trend range
Price is at 63.3% of its latest 52-week range.
Fitted directionRising
The fitted centre line is moving +0.57% per week.
Range pressureBalanced pressure
The current pressure reading is 38/100; 50 is balanced.
Next structural level30.82
Resistance is 3.3% from the latest close with 81/100 evidence strength.
Point & Figure
Price structure ยท volume at price
Point & Figure market structure
Each X marks a rising price box and each O marks a falling price box. Time is removed from the horizontal scale so reversals, breakouts and areas of heavy trading stand out.
MethodAdaptive scale
Smart Money
Completed-week positioning evidence
Smart Money
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the trend or warning of increased risk.
Price, support and published events
Where confirmation strengthened or risk increased
Selected annotations highlight meaningful completed-week events; every existing chart series and marker remains visible.
Close Price
Trend Line
Demand Threshold Line
Reversal Risk Level
Current Smart Money readSupport is under active pressure
The current Smart Money structure carries a recent reversal warning, so confirmation matters more than momentum alone.
Momentum 0.76 ยท Weakening
Trend qualityConstructive
The current trend state has persisted for 74 completed weeks; visible confirmation is constructive.
Momentum pathStrong ยท Weakening
The latest completed-week level and direction.
Latest positive signalNo recent positive signal
The chart is carrying context rather than a fresh positive event marker.
Risk and warningsElevated
A reversal danger marker appeared 4 completed weeks ago; confirmation needs close attention.
Current evaluation
What the Smart Money chart means now
The reading combines the finished chart state, its direction and the timing of published signals.
What supports it
The current trend relationship and completed-week context are broadly aligned.
What would improve it
A turn higher in the momentum path, followed by steadier trend confirmation, would strengthen the reading.
What could weaken it
A reversal danger marker appeared 4 completed weeks ago; confirmation needs close attention.
Published signal history
What changed, and when
Event markers are observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Reversal danger
The chart registered its strongest reversal warning.
4 weeks ago
Reversal risk
The chart registered elevated reversal risk.
5 weeks ago
Reversal danger
The chart registered its strongest reversal warning.
11 weeks ago
Reversal danger
The chart registered its strongest reversal warning.
13 weeks ago
Reversal risk
The chart registered elevated reversal risk.
15 weeks ago
Market Dynamics
Price and underlying support
Market Dynamics
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the move or beginning to diverge from it.
Zero lineMarket Dynamics Rate of ChangePrice ActionVolume ActionFlip UpFlip Down
Price and support relationship ยท 12 completed weeks
Price is running ahead of Market Dynamics
Price is -6.7% across this view and is in the upper part of its stored price range, while Market Dynamics is -1.01 after a -0.47 change over the latest 4 completed weeks. The price move has less underlying support than its location suggests.
Latest 4 weeks in focus
Price change from 2026-07-24Market DynamicsLatest 4 completed weeks
Zone-to-zone journey model
4% across the current zone span
The model estimates a 4% chance of confirming accumulation within 52 completed weeks and a 90% chance of returning to the source zone first.
Current journey
Distribution to accumulation ยท Leaving source zone
Activated
2026-10-02
Model data
Through 2026-08-21
What Market Dynamics shows
Yes. Market Dynamics follows the completed-week transition between the two sides of a market cycle. Accumulation is the lower zone where selling pressure may be absorbed and support may be forming; distribution is the upper zone where earlier demand may be tiring and supply can begin to take control. The model measures both accumulation to distribution and the reverse journey, and waits for a deeper close or repeated closes before treating a new zone as confirmed. MYFW is 4% across its current move from distribution back toward accumulation. The journey remains open because neither the target nor a return to the source has been confirmed. For an investor, the value is in separating an apparent price move from a completed change in market character: target confirmation can strengthen the case that a new phase is taking hold, while a confirmed source return warns that the attempted change did not persist and the risk/reward should be reassessed. The completed journeys below show how 1 transitions in this ticker's stored history reached and confirmed the opposite zone.
Current zone-span position 4%
Distribution to Accumulation ยท 1 completed weeks since exit
Complete within 26 weeks 2%
Confirm the current accumulation zone first
Complete within 52 weeks 4%
Confirm the target zone using completed weeks
Invalidate within 52 weeks 90%
Confirm a return to the source zone first
Question 1 ยท Where has price travelled?
Current journey through the zone span
Zero is the confirmed starting zone; 100% is the opposite target zone.
Observed zone-span positionStarting-zone sideTarget-zone side
Question 2 ยท What does the model estimate?
Current 52-week outcome probability
These are competing model outcomes for the active journey, not next-week forecasts.
Confirm target within 52 weeksReturn to source within 52 weeks
12 weeks1%
26 weeks2%
52 weeks4%
Accumulation zone
15.98 / deep 13.57
Current close
29.83
Distribution zone
30.48 / deep 32.89
Source-zone dwell
26 completed weeks
Market Dynamics -1.01Latest causal completed-week reading12-week change -2.57Change in underlying supportTrend position 1%Close relative to the Trend LineVolume ratio 1.00รRecent activity versus its baseline
What actually happened before?
Successful zone transitions
Target-confirmed opposite-zone transitions from the latest 156 charted weeks.
Most recent successful journeyAccumulation to Distribution ยท Confirmed distribution
2024-04-26โ2026-06-19 ยท 113 completed weeks ยท price move +86.9%. Across this chart, 1 journey confirmed an opposite zone: 1 reached distribution and 0 reached accumulation.
0% ยท confirmed source exit100% ยท confirmed opposite zone
Accumulation to DistributionConfirmed distribution
2024-04-26โ2026-06-19 ยท journey 113w ยท source dwell 11w
Source exit50%Target confirmed
Furthest point
100%
Price move
+86.9%
Time to confirm
113w
Reached and confirmed distribution after 113 completed weeks. Price moved +86.9% from the confirmed source-zone exit.
Earnings and Price Index
Earnings and Price Index
A three-year index of the relationship between earnings power and market price.
Market price
Earnings power
Repricing spread
Earnings update
Current stateExpectations ahead
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is closing and has persisted through 11 updates.
Spread
Closing
Persistence
11 quarters
Confirmation
Broad support
Repricing pressure
Moderate โ price-led
Market move93.8%
Three-year change
Earnings move20.8%
Three-year change
Repricing spread-73.0 pts
closing
Current valuation16.0ร
Price relative to earnings power
Business quality supportive
Cash generation and operating evidence are broadly supportive.
Expectations elevated
Price is leading delivered earnings power by a meaningful margin.
Supporting evidence
Attribution, business confirmation and horizon robustness
The components behind the repricing relationship and the independent evidence that supports or challenges it.
What drove the move?
Earnings and relative valuation contributions
Shows how the earnings move and relative valuation combine into the total market move.
What supports the earnings picture?
Business confirmation
6 of 6 available business-quality checks are supportive.
EarningsRevenueCash generation
Cash conversionWhether reported profit is supported by free cash generation.Supportive
Revenue directionWhether top-line progress supports the earnings direction.Supportive
Free-cash-flow directionWhether free cash flow is improving with earnings.Supportive
Accrual pressureLower accrual pressure is a cleaner confirmation of earnings.Supportive
Share countA stable or falling share count makes per-share progress more durable.Supportive
Signal robustness
Does the relationship persist across time horizons?
Shows whether the same earnings or price lead remains visible from shorter starting points.
Market acceptance
How price responded to each earnings update
Across completed four-week windows, 4 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 3 had a meaningful positive price response.
Professional contextPeer rarity, comparable outcomes and state history
Peer groupBanks - Regional27 comparable companies
Repricing rarity81peer percentile
Spread position81peer percentile
Quality position77peer percentile
Comparable historical outcomes
There are not yet enough comparable point-in-time observations for a responsible outcome summary.
State transitions
Highlights when the dominant relationship between earnings power and market price changed.
Broadly aligned
Fundamental fracture
Expectations ahead
Related repricing signals
DBEarnings-led27.9 pts
BBDOEarnings-led23.7 pts
HBANEarnings-led22.0 pts
FHNEarnings-led19.4 pts
IBNEarnings-led15.9 pts
CFGEarnings-led11.2 pts
UMBFEarnings-led67.7 pts
NUEarnings-led69.1 pts
Price Cycle
Completed-week market perception
Price Cycle
A deep view of whether price pressure is strong, weak, strengthening, fading or moving through a higher-risk transition.
Pressure, price and published transitions
Where market perception strengthened, faded or changed state
The percentage reading is primary. Weekly close is retained only as market context; selected annotations identify meaningful completed transitions.
Market PerceptionPositive pressureNegative pressureWeekly CloseBalanceCrossed upCrossed downPublished transition or Price Action signal
Current Price Cycle readPositive pressure remains established, but is cooling
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position. Positive pressure remains, but it is becoming less forceful.
+36.56% ยท Positive ยท Cooling
Market positionPositive
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position.
Pressure directionCooling
Positive pressure remains, but it is becoming less forceful.
Trend qualityPersistent
Directional progress remains visible despite some interruption.
Risks and warningsNormal
No elevated completed-week pressure warning is active.
Current evaluation
What the Price Cycle says now
The evaluation combines the finished pressure state, its direction, persistence and historical context.
What supports it
Price remains in positive market-perception territory.
What would improve it
Renewed upward pressure without further loss of path quality would restore confidence.
What could weaken it
A turn lower in the pressure path or a loss of balance would weaken the current interpretation.
What to watch next
The latest path is cooling with persistent trend quality. Comparable history is mixed follow-through.
Statistical perspective
How unusual, persistent and historically consequential is this position?
Historical observations describe completed evidence. They do not predict the next price move.
Historical positionUpper 25% of history
The latest reading is stronger than 75% of completed observations.
State persistence61 completed weeks
The current positive state has persisted without interruption.
Comparable historyMixed follow-through
Across 90 comparable completed observations, later closes were higher 53% of the time; the typical move was +0.6%. This is context, not a forecast.
Published transition history
What changed, and when
Transitions are completed observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
11 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
18 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
31 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
37 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
52 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
54 weeks ago
VWAP Control
Completed-week volume-weighted structure
VWAP Control
Read who has control, whether that control is strengthening, and which price levels would change the picture.
Price, VWAP structure and control transfers
Where control changed
156 completed weeks ยท Reported weekly volume
Price and its referencesThe navy line is price. Compare it with the VWAP lines to see whether it is holding above or below areas of volume-weighted trading.
Control over timeGreen, blue and rose backgrounds mark buyer control, contested conditions and seller control. Circles mark completed changes in control.
Strength of controlThe lower panel follows pressure through the same weeks. Higher readings favour buyers; lower readings favour sellers. This is a strength reading, not a probability.
A completed close above Swing high with pressure holding above 60 would strengthen buyer control.
Decision area29.57
Year VWAP at 29.57, 0.9% below the latest close.
Weakening level29.57
A completed close below Year VWAP with acceptance moving under 50% would weaken the present structure.
Current VWAP stack
Volume-weighted price levels
View exact VWAP reference values
VWAP references relative to the latest close
Reference
Price
From close
Year VWAP
29.57
-0.87%
Swing high
30.69
+2.88%
52-week VWAP
28.82
-3.40%
26-week VWAP
30.87
+3.49%
Latest earnings VWAP
31.13
+4.35%
13-week VWAP
31.40
+5.26%
High-activity anchor
31.65
+6.09%
Estimated activity position
Activity above and below price
Below price 47%Above price 53%
22%near price
A notable share of recent weighted activity remains above price and may act as overhead supply.
Estimated from completed weekly typical prices and reported activity; it is not holder-level cost-basis data.
Benchmark, sector and industry
VWAP control comparison
Sector and industry comparisons require at least ten constituents with aligned completed history.
Benchmark ยท QQQWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -39.8 points.
Buyers firmly in control ยท 90/100
Sector ยท Financial ServicesBroadly aligned with reference
Broadly aligned with reference; control-score gap +4.7 points.
Control is contested ยท 46/100
Industry ยท Banks - RegionalBroadly aligned with reference
Broadly aligned with reference; control-score gap -7.1 points.
Control is contested ยท 57/100
Historical VWAP outcomes
Reclaims, losses and similar states
Descriptive outcomes from this ticker's visible historyโnot a forecast.
Weekly reclaim100% favourable
Events
7
Median 4w
+8.90%
Median 13w
+14.07%
Typical best
+20.37%
Typical worst
+1.53%
Completed occasions when price moved back above the core VWAP.
Weekly loss0% favourable
Events
6
Median 4w
+4.92%
Median 13w
+10.44%
Typical best
+17.09%
Typical worst
-1.28%
Completed occasions when price moved below the core VWAP.
Comparable control states13 matched weeks
Positive after 4w
69%
Median 4w
+7.71%
Positive after 13w
92%
Median 13w
+9.54%
Best / worst 13w
+30.2% / -4.5%
Outcomes after completed weeks with a similar control score and the same side of the core VWAP.
VWAP control history
Completed changes
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Next-State Map
Next-State Map
Historical one-week transition paths from similar completed-week states.
SMI
Proprietary completed-week evidence
SMI
See whether the underlying conditions beneath price are strengthening, weakening or holding firm.
Price and SMI transitions
Where underlying support changed
Annotations identify selected completed SMI state changes.
Weekly CloseTrend LineFair ValueActivity Lines
SMI pathDirection, persistence and turning points
SMI 0.66 ยท Constructive
ImprovingHolding steadyWeakening
Current SMI readUnderlying support is constructive, with early moderation
Price and SMI are not presenting a decisive combined message. The latest reading is based on completed weekly evidence.
0.66 ยท Constructive
Current stateConstructive ยท 0.66
Latest completed-week SMI reading
DirectionWeakening
How the completed SMI path is changing
PersistenceNew
3 completed weeks in the current state
Price relationshipMixed relationship
Price and SMI are not presenting a decisive combined message.
SMI in context
Comparable SMI states have carried a positive historical bias
Across 55 comparable completed observations, 74.5% closed higher after 13 weeks. The median move was +9.2%.
Comparable observations
55Completed historical readings
Positive outcomes
74.5%After 13 completed weeks
Median move
+9.2%Over the following 13 weeks
Versus normal baseline
+12.2 ptsDifference in positive outcome rate
Chart Summary
Key Points
Week Ending
9 Oct 2026
Latest Close
29.83
12-Week Change
-6.69%
Trend Signal
Active
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 55.57%
Signal Weeks
12 of 12
Vs Trend Line
Above
Vs Fair Value
Above
Relative Strength
-4.94
Market Dynamics
-1.01
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-10-09, MYFW fell 6.69%, moving from 31.97 to 29.83. The latest weekly close is above the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is active on the latest week and was active in 12 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -4.94 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -1.01 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is positive at 55.57% based on similar historical setup states.
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