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Weekly closes ยท USD
Market context
Stage
4 ยท Stage 4A ยท Breakdown, as of 18 Sep 2026
Sentiment
50 ยท As of 25 Sep 2026
RS
-16.86
Dynamics
-0.92
Fair value gap
+9.1%
Week range
14.17โ14.89
Weekly Chart PackCompleted weekly market data ยท Independent research
NYSE ยท Equity ยท United States
BBAR
BBVA Banco Frances SA ADR
Financial ServicesBanks - Regional
Banco BBVA Argentina SA offers various banking products and services to individuals and companies in Argentina. The company is headquartered in Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Last updated
18 Sep 2026
Exchange
NYSE ยท NYSE
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Banks - Regional
Currency
USD
Market capitalisation
2,791,915,609
Fair value reference
13.06
Next-week expectancy
Positive ยท 58.52%
Executive chart read
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-09-18, BBAR fell 26.44%, moving from 19.37 to 14.25. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 7 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -16.86 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -0.92 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is positive at 58.52% based on similar historical setup states.
Week Ending
18 Sep 2026
Latest Close
14.25
12-Week Change
-26.44%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 58.52%
Signal Weeks
7 of 12
Reversal Map Indicator
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Weekly Trend
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Weekly Close
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity LinesDirection Line
Analysis panels
Choose up to 6 panels. Drag panel headers to reorder.
Price Sponsorship Indicator
What it is
Price Sponsorship Indicator PSI
PSI compares the weekly price move with the market activity behind it. It shows whether price has broad support or whether that support is weakening.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-09-18
Price remains unsettled
Price and PSI remain weak or inconsistent. An improvement in the bars would be the first sign of recovery.
PSI score
31/100
4 completed weeks
Recent support
-15
Limited
Readings pointing the same way
100%
Activity is weighing on price
What it shows
Price and the support behind it
The navy line is price. Green and red bars show support. The coloured trend lines show positive, negative or possible change.
01Support buildsGreen bars rise above zero.
02Price confirmsPrice rises with positive bars.
03Support holdsPositive bars remain with price.
04WarningBars weaken before or with price.
PricePositive trendNegative trendPossible changeStrong supportPositive supportWeak support
What it shows
Is this move specific to the ticker or shared by the market?
This compares the ticker's PSI reading with how widely stocks on its exchange are moving together. It does not change PSI.
Stocks moving together54/100
Broad move building ยท more together
Ticker and market
Weakness is mainly in this ticker
PSI is weak, but the wider market is not showing the same degree of pressure.
PSI
-39.0
Market togetherness
54/100
Ticker supported, market mixed
Positive PSI without a strong shared market move.
Ticker supported, market moving together
Positive PSI within a strong shared market move.
Ticker weak, market mixed
Weak PSI without matching broad market weakness.
Current contextTicker weak, broad market weak
Weak PSI within a strong shared market decline.
Second check
Does Market Dynamics agree?
PSI shows support for the price move. Market Dynamics provides a separate check on whether conditions beneath price point the same way.
What it shows
Both readings are weak
PSI and Market Dynamics point in the same weak direction.
Current reading
-0.92
Four-week change
-0.69
Sharemaestro ยท BBAR ยท Weekly price reversals
RMI Reversal Map Indicator
See where price breaks a previous high or low, turns back, and confirms a change in direction.
โ Broke a prior high / lowโ Closed back across the levelโฒ / โผ Reversal confirmedโ โ Confirmation levelโ Average price since the sweep (VWAP)
Observed follow-through
What happened after confirmation?
Direction-adjusted price moves from the next weekly open. Only outcomes completed by the replay date are included. Before costs; no exit rules applied. Overlapping observations are not independent trades or a forecast.
Dated observations
Setup journal
Reading the chart
The chart opens on the latest 152 weeks. Choose 52 or 104 weeks for a closer view. Only confirmed reversals are shown. Clear confirmations is the stricter starting view; All confirmations also includes reversals that did not meet every strength check. Green marks a confirmed turn up; red marks a confirmed turn down. Dashed outlines mark historical setups. A zone marks where the reversal developed; its end does not mean the whole price move ended. Select a journal entry to review a past setup, or use the replay slider to see what was known at an earlier close.
Annotations adds dates and explanations for every visible zone. A separate Follow-up complete marker shows when eight weeks of tracking finished. The price move may continue beyond it. The numbered notes below the chart also let you select a zone to inspect it. Confirmed reversals can fail; failed setups stay in the history. Follow-through figures describe past price moves before costs; they are not a forecast or trading record.
Results use completed weekly prices. Missing or revised source data can affect the saved history.
Adaptive Price Envelope
Price, volatility and confirmation
Adaptive Price Envelope APE
See where price sits inside boundaries that adjust to completed-week direction and volatility, then check whether the wider evidence confirms the move.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-09-18
Price is below the adaptive centre
The completed weekly close is on the lower side of the envelope. A centre recovery and improving confirmation would be the first signs of repair.
Rolling market memory and the nearest established acceptance above and below the current price.
Is market memory moving?
Accepted-value migration
Each column is a rolling one-year auction. Brighter areas show stronger price acceptance.
Where is the next market memory?
Auction runway
The next established shelf is materially farther below than above.
Above14.88Established market memory sits 4.5% above the latest close.
Below9.10Established market memory sits 36.1% below the latest close.
Decision map
What would confirm or challenge the current interpretation?
Sustained weekly closes above16.44
Higher-value acceptance
Holding above this boundary while the acceptance centre rises would strengthen the higher-value interpretation.
Primary market-memory magnet4.66
Rotation toward value
This is the centre of the three-year auction and the principal reference if price rotates back through value.
Sustained weekly closes below3.10
Lower-value acceptance
Holding below this boundary while the acceptance centre falls would strengthen the lower-value interpretation.
Decision context
Structural references and cross-signal agreement
The closest market-memory levels, the evidence that agrees or disagrees, and the limits of the current interpretation.
Market memory
Nearest structural nodes
These are historical acceptance references, not live resting orders.
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
14.88
4.5%
Low-acceptance corridorHistorically limited acceptance makes this a potential fast-travel area.
12.66
-11.2%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
9.10
-36.1%
Low-acceptance corridorHistorically limited acceptance makes this a potential fast-travel area.
5.99
-58.0%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
4.66
-67.3%
Cross-signal agreement
Does the wider Sharemaestro picture agree?
Agreement strengthens context; disagreement identifies where the thesis is vulnerable.
Auction locationShows where the latest close sits relative to established accepted value.Within accepted value
Accepted-value migrationCompares the recent acceptance centre with the preceding one-year auction.Lower
30-week trendThe latest close is 12.7% below the trend line.Price below
Fair-value positionMarket price is 9.1% above the current fair-value reference.Above
Point & Figure structureConfirms whether reversal structure agrees with the current auction direction.Supply column falling
Earnings repricingShows whether accepted market value is developing with or against the earnings relationship.Fundamental fracture
Upside auction rejected
Price tested above accepted value but returned to the established auction range.
More room below
The next established shelf is materially farther below than above.
Established market memory
The three-year acceptance centre at 4.66 remains the dominant rotational reference.
Security-specific analogues
How comparable auction states resolved
Fewer than four non-overlapping comparable episodes exist in the visible history.
1 comparable non-overlapping episodes are visible; at least four are required before outcomes are summarised.
Price Action
Completed weekly market tape
Price Action
A deep view of how price is behaving against its own completed history, trend, structural levels and participation.
Current weekly interpretationDeclining structure with weak close
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range. Price is below its completed-week trend reference and that reference is falling.
Full context ยท Developing
Current structureDeclining structure
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range.
Trend relationshipBelow a falling trend
Price is below its completed-week trend reference and that reference is falling.
Support and resistanceSupport 13.62 ยท Resistance 15.15
Nearest completed structural references around the latest close.
Participation qualityLight participation
The latest weekly move occurred on comparatively light participation.
Price, structure and participation
Where price advanced, failed, reclaimed or lost important ground
Candles preserve the completed weekly tape. Selected annotations identify meaningful finished events and point directly to the week concerned.
Up weekDown weekTrend referenceCompleted supportCompleted resistanceVolumeTypical volumePublished event
What happened this week?
The latest completed candle
The latest week is separated into price change, candle character, closing position and path quality.
Weekly move-4.30%
Latest close versus the preceding completed close.
Candle characterWeak close
Price declined and finished in the lower part of the completed weekly range.
Where the week closedNear the weekly low
The close finished at 11% of the completed weekly range.
Path qualityDeveloping
The path is readable, but the completed evidence is not yet consistently aligned.
Current evaluation
What the weekly tape says now
The interpretation combines completed price structure, trend relationship, participation and path quality.
What supports it
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range.
What would improve it
A sustained close above the nearest completed resistance, supported by firmer participation, would improve confirmation.
What could weaken it
A sustained loss of the nearest completed support would materially weaken the current price structure.
What to watch next
Trend relationship is below a falling trend; participation is light participation, and path quality is developing.
Statistical perspective
Where the latest close sits in its own completed history
These observations describe the available record. They are market context, not predictions of the next move.
Position in completed history59% of range
The latest close's location between the lowest and highest completed closes available for this market.
Distance from completed high-37.7%
How far the latest close sits below the highest completed close in the available history.
Recovery from completed low+798.0%
How far the latest close has advanced from the lowest completed close in the available history.
Latest move versus typical0.8ร typical
The absolute latest weekly move compared with completed weekly moves available before it.
Completed event history
What changed, and when
Only selected completed events are shown. Each annotation is descriptive, not a standalone instruction.
Support structure lost
The weekly close moved below the preceding completed price structure.
4 weeks ago
Upside structure cleared
The weekly close moved above the preceding completed price structure.
13 weeks ago
Trend lost
The weekly close moved below the completed trend reference.
21 weeks ago
Trend reclaimed
The weekly close moved back above the completed trend reference.
42 weeks ago
High-participation reversal
Price changed weekly direction with elevated participation.
48 weeks ago
Range
Sharemaestro Range
Where price is trading
The fitted range, accepted trading area and strongest price levels are calculated automatically from completed weekly market data.
Current stateInside accepted value
52-week position
44.9%
Low to high
Accepted price
14.91
Latest versus accepted: -4.46%
Fitted direction
Rising
0.37% per week
Range pressure
23/100
Lower pressure
Range condition
Contracting
0.52ร normal range
Range pressureCurrent range pressure ยท 50 is balanced
Weekly closeFitted rangeActivity ribbonEstimated activity at priceAutomatic level
Automatic structure
Strongest price levels
Support12.58
From price
-11.7%
Evidence
24/100
Touches
1
Support13.64
From price
-4.3%
Evidence
83/100
Touches
7
Resistance14.91
From price
4.7%
Evidence
96/100
Touches
4
Resistance15.96
From price
12.0%
Evidence
92/100
Touches
4
Current reading
What the range shows
Current positionInside accepted value
Price is at 44.9% of its latest 52-week range.
Fitted directionRising
The fitted centre line is moving +0.37% per week.
Range pressureLower pressure
The current pressure reading is 23/100; 50 is balanced.
Next structural level13.64
Support is 4.3% from the latest close with 83/100 evidence strength.
Point & Figure
Price structure ยท volume at price
Point & Figure market structure
Each X marks a rising price box and each O marks a falling price box. Time is removed from the horizontal scale so reversals, breakouts and areas of heavy trading stand out.
MethodAdaptive scale
Smart Money
Completed-week positioning evidence
Smart Money
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the trend or warning of increased risk.
Current Smart Money readSmart Money support is weak
The current completed-week evidence is not providing dependable confirmation for price.
Momentum 0.46 ยท Weakening
Trend qualityWeak alignment
The current trend state has persisted for 5 completed weeks; visible confirmation is weak alignment.
Momentum pathBalanced ยท Weakening
The latest completed-week level and direction.
Latest positive signalNo recent positive signal
The chart is carrying context rather than a fresh positive event marker.
Risk and warningsWatch
The latest reversal warning was 10 completed weeks ago; it is no longer immediate but remains relevant context.
Price, support and published events
Where confirmation strengthened or risk increased
Selected annotations highlight meaningful completed-week events; every existing chart series and marker remains visible.
Close Price
Trend Line
Demand Threshold Line
Reversal Risk Level
Current evaluation
What the Smart Money chart means now
The reading combines the finished chart state, its direction and the timing of published signals.
What supports it
There is limited positive confirmation; the chart should be read cautiously until support improves.
What would improve it
A turn higher in the momentum path, followed by steadier trend confirmation, would strengthen the reading.
What could weaken it
The latest reversal warning was 10 completed weeks ago; it is no longer immediate but remains relevant context.
Published signal history
What changed, and when
Event markers are observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
10 weeks ago
Reversal danger
The chart registered its strongest reversal warning.
12 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
13 weeks ago
Reversal risk
The chart registered elevated reversal risk.
13 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
69 weeks ago
Market Dynamics
Price and underlying support
Market Dynamics
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the move or beginning to diverge from it.
Zero lineMarket Dynamics Rate of ChangePrice ActionVolume ActionFlip UpFlip Down
Price and support relationship ยท 12 completed weeks
Price is running ahead of Market Dynamics
Price is -26.4% across this view and is in the middle part of its stored price range, while Market Dynamics is -0.92 after a -0.69 change over the latest 4 completed weeks. The price move has less underlying support than its location suggests.
Latest 4 weeks in focus
Price change from 2026-07-03Market DynamicsLatest 4 completed weeks
Zone-to-zone journey model
42% across the current zone span
The model estimates a 20% chance of confirming accumulation within 52 completed weeks and a 56% chance of returning to the source zone first.
Current journey
Distribution to accumulation ยท Progressing
Activated
2026-06-26
Model data
Through 2026-08-21
What Market Dynamics shows
Yes. Market Dynamics follows the completed-week transition between the two sides of a market cycle. Accumulation is the lower zone where selling pressure may be absorbed and support may be forming; distribution is the upper zone where earlier demand may be tiring and supply can begin to take control. The model measures both accumulation to distribution and the reverse journey, and waits for a deeper close or repeated closes before treating a new zone as confirmed. BBAR is 42% across its current move from distribution back toward accumulation. The journey remains open because neither the target nor a return to the source has been confirmed. For an investor, the value is in separating an apparent price move from a completed change in market character: target confirmation can strengthen the case that a new phase is taking hold, while a confirmed source return warns that the attempted change did not persist and the risk/reward should be reassessed. The completed journeys below show how 1 transitions in this ticker's stored history reached and confirmed the opposite zone.
Current zone-span position 42%
Distribution to Accumulation ยท 12 completed weeks since exit
Complete within 26 weeks 9%
Confirm the current accumulation zone first
Complete within 52 weeks 20%
Confirm the target zone using completed weeks
Invalidate within 52 weeks 56%
Confirm a return to the source zone first
Question 1 ยท Where has price travelled?
Current journey through the zone span
Zero is the confirmed starting zone; 100% is the opposite target zone.
Observed zone-span positionStarting-zone sideTarget-zone side
Question 2 ยท What does the model estimate?
Current 52-week outcome probability
These are competing model outcomes for the active journey, not next-week forecasts.
Confirm target within 52 weeksReturn to source within 52 weeks
12 weeks2%
26 weeks9%
52 weeks20%
Accumulation zone
5.92 / deep 3.53
Current close
14.25
Distribution zone
20.25 / deep 22.63
Source-zone dwell
2 completed weeks
Market Dynamics -0.92Latest causal completed-week reading12-week change -2.05Change in underlying supportTrend position -13%Close relative to the Trend LineVolume ratio 0.97รRecent activity versus its baseline
What actually happened before?
Successful zone transitions
Target-confirmed opposite-zone transitions from the latest 156 charted weeks.
Most recent successful journeyAccumulation to Distribution ยท Confirmed distribution
2024-03-08โ2025-01-10 ยท 45 completed weeks ยท price move +272.9%. Across this chart, 1 journey confirmed an opposite zone: 1 reached distribution and 0 reached accumulation.
0% ยท confirmed source exit100% ยท confirmed opposite zone
Accumulation to DistributionConfirmed distribution
2024-03-08โ2025-01-10 ยท journey 45w ยท source dwell 23w
Source exit50%Target confirmed
Furthest point
100%
Price move
+272.9%
Time to confirm
45w
Reached and confirmed distribution after 45 completed weeks. Price moved +272.9% from the confirmed source-zone exit.
Earnings and Price Index
Earnings and Price Index
A three-year index of the relationship between earnings power and market price.
Current stateFundamental fracture
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is closing and has persisted through 12 updates.
Spread
Closing
Persistence
12 quarters
Confirmation
Broad support
Repricing pressure
Extreme โ price-led
Market move318.5%
Three-year change
Earnings move-29.7%
Three-year change
Repricing spread-348.2 pts
closing
Current valuation14.0ร
Price relative to earnings power
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is closing and has persisted through 12 updates.
Market price
Earnings power
Repricing spread
Earnings update
Fundamental fracture
Earnings have weakened while price has not adjusted to the same degree.
Supporting evidence
Attribution, business confirmation and horizon robustness
The components behind the repricing relationship and the independent evidence that supports or challenges it.
What drove the move?
Earnings and relative valuation contributions
Shows how the earnings move and relative valuation combine into the total market move.
What supports the earnings picture?
Business confirmation
4 of 4 available business-quality checks are supportive.
EarningsRevenue
Cash conversionWhether reported profit is supported by free cash generation.Supportive
Revenue directionWhether top-line progress supports the earnings direction.Supportive
Accrual pressureLower accrual pressure is a cleaner confirmation of earnings.Supportive
Share countA stable or falling share count makes per-share progress more durable.Supportive
Signal robustness
Does the relationship persist across time horizons?
Shows whether the same earnings or price lead remains visible from shorter starting points.
Market acceptance
How price responded to each earnings update
Across completed four-week windows, 1 improving update had a non-positive price response; 2 had a meaningful positive price response.
Professional contextPeer rarity, comparable outcomes and state history
Peer groupBanks - Regional27 comparable companies
Repricing rarity100peer percentile
Spread position0peer percentile
Quality position77peer percentile
Comparable historical outcomes
Comparable outcomes use the available three-year peer history, are descriptive, include overlapping periods and are not a forecast.
State transitions
Highlights when the dominant relationship between earnings power and market price changed.
Broadly aligned
Fundamental fracture
Expectations ahead
Fundamental fracture
Related repricing signals
CIBPrice-led-74.2 pts
BCHPrice-led-52.1 pts
SHGPrice-led-46.9 pts
KBPrice-led-43.9 pts
BSACPrice-led-32.7 pts
WFPrice-led-21.3 pts
FITBPrice-led-17.4 pts
FCNCAPrice-led-15.3 pts
Price Cycle
Completed-week market perception
Price Cycle
A deep view of whether price pressure is strong, weak, strengthening, fading or moving through a higher-risk transition.
Current Price Cycle readPositive pressure is established and holding steady
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position. The latest completed readings are broadly stable.
+9.10% ยท Positive ยท Holding steady
Market positionPositive
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position.
Pressure directionHolding steady
The latest completed readings are broadly stable.
Trend qualityPersistent
Directional progress remains visible despite some interruption.
Risks and warningsNormal
No elevated completed-week pressure warning is active.
Pressure, price and published transitions
Where market perception strengthened, faded or changed state
The percentage reading is primary. Weekly close is retained only as market context; selected annotations identify meaningful completed transitions.
Market PerceptionPositive pressureNegative pressureWeekly CloseBalanceCrossed upCrossed downPublished transition or Price Action signal
Current evaluation
What the Price Cycle says now
The evaluation combines the finished pressure state, its direction, persistence and historical context.
What supports it
Price remains in positive market-perception territory.
What would improve it
Continued positive pressure with an orderly completed path would strengthen confirmation.
What could weaken it
A turn lower in the pressure path or a loss of balance would weaken the current interpretation.
What to watch next
The latest path is holding steady with persistent trend quality. Comparable history is limited record.
Statistical perspective
How unusual, persistent and historically consequential is this position?
Historical observations describe completed evidence. They do not predict the next price move.
Historical positionLower 40% of history
The latest reading is weaker than 60% of completed observations.
State persistence48 completed weeks
The current positive state has persisted without interruption.
Comparable historyLimited record
There are not yet enough comparable completed observations for a dependable historical summary.
Published transition history
What changed, and when
Transitions are completed observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Deep weakness
Negative pressure entered an historically weak position.
5 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
9 weeks ago
Deep weakness
Negative pressure entered an historically weak position.
21 weeks ago
Deep weakness
Negative pressure entered an historically weak position.
29 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
32 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
35 weeks ago
VWAP Control
Completed-week volume-weighted structure
VWAP Control
Shows price against its completed-week volume-weighted references, changes in control and the levels that would confirm or weaken the current reading.
Current controlSeller control developing
Price is below the core VWAP, which is rising. 55% of recent weighted activity has been accepted below it.
27/100 pressure
ControlSeller control developing
Pressure 27/100 and +2.3 points over four weeks.
VWAP stack0 of 7 below price
4 references converge near 16.71: High-activity anchor, Year VWAP, 26-week VWAP, 13-week VWAP.
Acceptance55% below
Share of recent completed weighted activity accepted on the prevailing side of the core VWAP.
Control backgroundBuyer controlContestedSeller control
Seller control50 ยท contestedBuyer control
Current VWAP signals
Control, agreement and concentration
Seller control developing
Seller control developing
The current position, VWAP direction and completed acceptance evidence broadly agree.
Price and VWAP pressure broadly agree
No material six-week disagreement is present between price direction and VWAP control.
VWAP cluster present
4 references converge near 16.71: High-activity anchor, Year VWAP, 26-week VWAP, 13-week VWAP.
Confirmation and failure levels
Levels that change the current reading
Confirmation14.84
A completed close above Latest earnings VWAP with pressure holding above 60 would strengthen buyer control.
Decision area14.84
Latest earnings VWAP at 14.84, 4.1% above the latest close.
Weakening level16.71
A completed loss of the core VWAP with pressure below 40 would strengthen seller control.
Current VWAP stack
Volume-weighted price levels
Latest earnings VWAP14.84
+4.12% from close
Swing high14.96
+5.00% from close
52-week VWAP15.11
+6.01% from close
High-activity anchor16.46
+15.51% from close
Year VWAP16.69
+17.15% from close
26-week VWAP16.71
+17.30% from close
13-week VWAP16.99
+19.23% from close
Estimated activity position
Activity above and below price
Below price 28%Above price 72%
31%near price
A notable share of recent weighted activity remains above price and may act as overhead supply.
Estimated from completed weekly typical prices and reported activity; it is not holder-level cost-basis data.
Benchmark, sector and industry
VWAP control comparison
Sector and industry comparisons require at least ten constituents with aligned completed history.
Benchmark ยท SPYWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -54.6 points.
Buyers firmly in control ยท 81/100
Sector ยท Financial ServicesWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -42.5 points.
Buyer control developing ยท 69/100
Industry ยท Banks - RegionalWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -49.0 points.
Buyer control developing ยท 76/100
Historical VWAP outcomes
Reclaims, losses and similar states
Descriptive outcomes from this ticker's visible historyโnot a forecast.
Weekly reclaim50% favourable
Events
4
Median 4w
+1.01%
Median 13w
+0.29%
Typical best
+21.10%
Typical worst
-19.34%
Completed occasions when price moved back above the core VWAP.
Weekly loss25% favourable
Events
4
Median 4w
+14.30%
Median 13w
+16.93%
Typical best
+44.14%
Typical worst
-2.68%
Completed occasions when price moved below the core VWAP.
Comparable control states4 matched weeks
Positive after 4w
75%
Median 4w
+24.01%
Positive after 13w
50%
Median 13w
-14.45%
Best / worst 13w
+39.7% / -48.9%
Outcomes after completed weeks with a similar control score and the same side of the core VWAP.
VWAP control history
Completed changes
Seller pressure established
The completed control reading moved into negative territory.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
VWAP structure turned higher
The fast VWAP crossed above the core VWAP.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
Seller pressure established
The completed control reading moved into negative territory.
Seller pressure established
The completed control reading moved into negative territory.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Next-State Map
Next-State Map
Historical one-week transition paths from similar completed-week states.
SMI
Proprietary completed-week evidence
SMI
See whether the underlying conditions beneath price are strengthening, weakening or holding firm.
Current SMI readUnderlying support remains weak and requires repair
Price weakness is accompanied by a cautious SMI state. The latest reading is based on completed weekly evidence.
0.34 ยท Fragile
Current stateFragile ยท 0.34
Latest completed-week SMI reading
DirectionWeakening
How the completed SMI path is changing
PersistenceNew
1 completed week in the current state
Price relationshipConfirming price weakness
Price weakness is accompanied by a cautious SMI state.
Price and SMI transitions
Where underlying support changed
Annotations identify selected completed SMI state changes.
Weekly CloseTrend LineFair ValueActivity Lines
SMI pathDirection, persistence and turning points
SMI 0.34 ยท Fragile
ImprovingHolding steadyWeakening
SMI in context
Comparable SMI states have carried a positive historical bias
Across 22 comparable completed observations, 72.7% closed higher after 13 weeks. The median move was +9.8%.
Comparable observations
22
Completed historical readings
Positive outcomes
72.7%
After 13 completed weeks
Median move
+9.8%
Over the following 13 weeks
Versus normal baseline
+12.8 pts
Difference in positive outcome rate
Chart Summary
Key Points
Week Ending
18 Sep 2026
Latest Close
14.25
12-Week Change
-26.44%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 58.52%
Signal Weeks
7 of 12
Vs Trend Line
Below
Vs Fair Value
Above
Relative Strength
-16.86
Market Dynamics
-0.92
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-09-18, BBAR fell 26.44%, moving from 19.37 to 14.25. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 7 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -16.86 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -0.92 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is positive at 58.52% based on similar historical setup states.
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