- The trend backdrop is active with a 19-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Activity pressure is constructive, supporting the smart-money activity read.
TLYS
NYSE
Week ended 24 Jul 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Tillys Inc · Consumer Cyclical · Apparel Retail
Latest close
3.77 USD
-4.8%
latest week
Weekly setup
Mixed setup
The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 55.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.8%, after a -8.0% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive. Options positioning is volatility with 57/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 52/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 34d.
Setup score
40
out of 100
Latest Close
3.77 USD
24 Jul 2026
1W Return
-4.8%
latest completed week
4W Return
-8.0%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
-14.3%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
53.8%
28 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
0.5x
vs 13-week average
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 42.23% based on similar historical setup states.
- The share remains more than 20% below its 52-week high.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
-4.8%
Latest completed week; four-week move -8.0%.
Indicator stack
75/0
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Quiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 42.23%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
Options pressure
Volatility
57/100 conviction; expected move 35.1%.
News sentiment
52/100
36 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
Event risk
34d
Next report is scheduled for 02 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 12.1% above the Trend Line and sits at 55.3% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned -4.8%, after a -8.0% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 0.5x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
30 Jan
6 Feb
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.7112-week average 0.86
12-week confirmation
Trend active12/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure8/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership12/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.71Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is -8.0% over four weeks, -14.3% over 12 weeks, and 110.6% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 19 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak19 weeks
Active weeks in one year28
Trend breadth53.8%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.76Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change-707.2%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership33.69Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change-39.7%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks weakly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is neither clearly cheap nor expensive.
Factor week 26 Jul 2026
Financial statements through 28 Feb 2026
Field coverage 88%
Model confidence 88%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength76/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 25; rank 1 is best.
Value74/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 27; rank 1 is best.
Quality6/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 95; rank 1 is best.
Momentum95/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 6; rank 1 is best.
Growth21/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 80; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- - Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.2x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- - Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 3.6% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 31.3% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- -2.0% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 1.7% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- -3.7% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- -3.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- - Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- 30.9% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- - Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- 0.0% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 0.0% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- -89.4x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Options positioningVolatility
TLYS shows volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 35.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Conviction57/100
Expected move35.1%
Put/call volume0.00
Insider activity5 / 1
5 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.News sentiment52/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 36 relevant articles.
9 positive · 26 neutral · 1 negativePatient CapitalQuiet
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings34dNext report is scheduled for 02 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move35.1%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-36.1%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility8.5%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
30 Jan
27 Feb
27 Mar
24 Apr
22 May
19 Jun
24 Jul
Weeks higher14 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+80.5%Week of 13 Mar.
Worst week-22.5%Week of 24 Apr.
Latest week-4.8%Week of 24 Jul.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains9
Modest gains5
Flat weeks1
Modest losses4
Sharp losses7
Recent vol8.5%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol16.0%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split24/27Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew13.7% / -7.4%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorUS Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank- / 100
Group average-0.8%
Trend breadth36.0%
Trend36.0%active weekly trend signals
MD53.0%positive activity pressure
RS31.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryUS Apparel Retail
4-week rank23 / 28
Group average2.2%
Trend breadth39.3%
Trend39.3%active weekly trend signals
MD46.4%positive activity pressure
RS39.3%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape45/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 45/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis79/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 12/12, activity pressure 8/12, relative leadership 12/12.
Activity pressure 0.71; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 42.23%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 42.23% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors60/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Tiny Titans rank 5; Buyback Yield rank 67; Small Cap Core rank 37 Patient CapitalQuietActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
No recent buy signal Options42/100TLYS shows volatility options pressure with a 57/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.00, expected move of 35.1%, and Sharemaestro trend signal active.
Volatility · Volatility expansion watch · Expected move 35.1% Sentiment52/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 36 relevant articles.
Tillys Inc (TLYS) Risk Assessment: Volatility, Financial Risk & Investment Risk Insiders5 / 15 acquisitions and 1 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.
Earnings34dNext report is scheduled for 02 Sep 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2026 | 3.77 USD | -4.8% | 3.36 USD | 4.37 USD | -0.76 | 33.69 | 706.8K | On |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 3.96 USD | -3.9% | 3.30 USD | 4.40 USD | -0.69 | 41.21 | 723.6K | On |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 4.12 USD | 4.6% | 3.23 USD | 4.42 USD | -0.55 | 46.89 | 1.2M | On |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 3.94 USD | -3.9% | 3.15 USD | 4.45 USD | -0.21 | 44.69 | 1.4M | On |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 4.10 USD | -7.4% | 3.08 USD | 4.47 USD | 0.13 | 55.87 | 781.2K | On |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 4.43 USD | -18.7% | 2.99 USD | 4.49 USD | 0.39 | 67.60 | 992.0K | On |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 5.45 USD | 6.2% | 2.88 USD | 4.50 USD | 0.58 | 112.60 | 1.6M | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 5.13 USD | 15.0% | 2.75 USD | 4.51 USD | 0.53 | 107.49 | 6.5M | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 4.46 USD | 2.8% | 2.62 USD | 4.52 USD | 0.55 | 80.73 | 542.2K | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 4.34 USD | 7.4% | 2.53 USD | 4.53 USD | 0.68 | 82.12 | 761.1K | On |
| 15 May 2026 | 4.04 USD | -4.3% | 2.44 USD | 4.56 USD | 0.79 | 75.56 | 942.0K | On |
| 8 May 2026 | 4.22 USD | -4.1% | 2.35 USD | 4.58 USD | 1.05 | 88.42 | 876.5K | On |
| 1 May 2026 | 4.40 USD | 10.3% | 2.26 USD | 4.60 USD | 1.28 | 106.05 | 991.1K | On |
| 24 Apr 2026 | 3.99 USD | -22.5% | 2.18 USD | 4.63 USD | 1.46 | 92.90 | 2.9M | On |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.