Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
CME options intelligence
CME Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
29
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 1 Aug 2026 01:50 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
CME currently carries mixed options pressure with a 29/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.2%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
1.2%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.75
Call-side skew
Trend fit
46
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+4.9%
RS -9.9
Expected move
1.2%
Put-call volume
0.75
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.22
Max pain
255.00
Underlying
255.31
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
1242
Research Brief
CME has a mixed chain read with 29/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 252.34–258.28; The largest call open-interest concentration is 265.00; the largest put concentration is 257.50. The most active strike by current volume is 267.50.
Priced range252.34–258.28
Call concentration265.00
Put concentration257.50
Max pain reference255.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 252.34 to 258.28. Max pain at 255.00 sits inside that range, 0.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
252.34255.31 ± 2.97258.28
Confirmation level
A close beyond 258.28 or below 252.34 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 29/100
Pressure is 15/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure15 × 42%
+6.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement46 × 26%
+11.8
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility20 × 10%
+2.0
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 265.00; the largest put concentration is 257.50. The most active strike by current volume is 267.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
291
210.00-17.7%
11
462
230.00-9.9%
61
27
235.00-8.0%
16
237
240.00-6.0%
48
279
245.00-4.0%
226
151
247.50-3.1%
2
472
250.00-2.1%
57
131
252.50-1.1%
60
308
255.00-0.1%
2465
515
257.500.9%
336
177
260.001.8%
375
106
262.502.8%
95
79
265.003.8%
2679
40
267.504.8%
237
35
270.005.8%
111
0
290.0013.6%
74
0
385.0050.8%
79
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Back-loaded volatility
Longer-dated options carry more implied volatility than the front expiry, so risk is priced farther out.
0.22
31 Jul
0d
0.31
7 Aug
7d
0.25
14 Aug
14d
0.28
21 Aug
21d
0.28
28 Aug
28d
0.28
4 Sep
35d
0.28
11 Sep
42d
0.28
18 Sep
49d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
205
215
220
223
228
233
235
240
245
250
255
258
263
268
270
275
280
285
290
295
305
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1242 / 1242
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.8M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+15
1W price+4.9%
Call premium62%
Put premium38%
Notional split
C 62% / P 38%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
46/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 340 contracts traded, $226258 estimated gross traded notional, and 13% of visible notional.
$226258
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 137 contracts traded, $219235 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$219235
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 493 contracts traded, $205065 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$205065
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 34 contracts traded, $185210 estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$185210
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 98 contracts traded, $149750 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$149750
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close267.79
1W+4.9%
RS-9.9
Fair value+16.1%
Options pressure15
Speculation41
Volatility20
Trend fit46
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:02
Bullish
Pressure 57
Move 3.2%
30 Jul 12:53
Mixed
Pressure -12
Move 4.5%
30 Jul 13:45
Mixed
Pressure -3
Move 3.3%
30 Jul 15:16
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 3.1%
30 Jul 15:35
Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 3.2%
30 Jul 19:54
Bullish
Pressure 41
Move 4.6%
31 Jul 11:03
Bullish
Pressure 56
Move 4.8%
1 Aug 00:50
Mixed
Pressure 15
Move 1.2%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike175.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike180.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike185.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 4
Strike190.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike195.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts122
Avg IV0.22
Put-call0.36
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV0.31
Put-call0.89
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts108
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.01
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.28
Put-call1.43
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts76
Avg IV0.28
Put-call5.69
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.08
Put IV0.38
Skew0.29
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.30
Skew0.03
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.39
Skew0.14
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.28
Put IV0.29
Skew0.01
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.27
Put IV0.29
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCME270115P00230000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike230.00
Volume276
OI760
IV0.32
ContractCME260821P00252500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike252.50
Volume177
OI2
IV0.28
ContractCME260821C00280000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike280.00
Volume164
OI782
IV0.28
ContractCME260731C00265000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike265.00
Volume147
OI2679
IV0.01
ContractCME260918C00300000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike300.00
Volume147
OI1012
IV0.28
ContractCME261016C00290000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike290.00
Volume144
OI36
IV0.24
ContractCME260918C00290000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike290.00
Volume124
OI648
IV0.25
ContractCME260918C00260000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike260.00
Volume124
OI605
IV0.27
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.