Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
CME options intelligence
CME Group Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
30
Market data through 16 Sep 2026
Checked 17 Sep 2026 13:42 · complete available chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
CME currently carries mixed options pressure with a 30/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.8%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
1.8%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
1.19
Balanced tape
Trend fit
72
Options agree with trend context
Weekly backdrop
-1.6%
RS -9.1
Expected move
1.8%
Put-call volume
1.19
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.29
Max pain
275.00
Underlying
275.54
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
1266
Research Brief
CME has a mixed chain read with 30/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 270.59–280.49; The largest call open-interest concentration is 280.00; the largest put concentration is 260.00. The most active strike by current volume is 290.00.
Priced range270.59–280.49
Call concentration280.00
Put concentration260.00
Max pain reference275.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 270.59 to 280.49. Max pain at 275.00 sits inside that range, 0.2% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
270.59275.54 ± 4.95280.49
Confirmation level
A close beyond 280.49 or below 270.59 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 30/100
Pressure is 11/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure11 × 42%
+4.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation17 × 22%
+3.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement72 × 26%
+18.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility27 × 10%
+2.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 280.00; the largest put concentration is 260.00. The most active strike by current volume is 290.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
443
200.00-27.4%
0
230
210.00-23.8%
0
432
220.00-20.2%
22
562
230.00-16.5%
13
406
240.00-12.9%
10
383
250.00-9.3%
20
1109
260.00-5.6%
107
891
270.00-2.0%
633
722
275.00-0.2%
819
627
277.500.7%
172
210
280.001.6%
897
98
290.005.2%
777
124
300.008.9%
617
25
310.0012.5%
528
3
320.0016.1%
503
0
330.0019.8%
354
0
340.0023.4%
263
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Balanced gamma proxy
Call- and put-side gamma sensitivity is broadly balanced across the retained chain. Individual strike concentrations may still matter more than the chain-wide net.
Net profile-$5.2MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak280.00+$2.5M
Negative peak270.00-$5.1M
Nearest balance275.40Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
250.00-9.3%
-$746,613
252.50-8.4%
-$9,257
255.00-7.5%
-$248,022
257.50-6.5%
-$7,937
260.00-5.6%
-$1.6M
262.50-4.7%
-$27,599
265.00-3.8%
-$959,568
267.50-2.9%
-$427,361
270.00-2.0%
-$5.1M
272.50-1.1%
-$986,656
275.00-0.2%
+$320,955
277.500.7%
-$1.7M
280.001.6%
+$2.5M
282.502.5%
+$127,154
285.003.4%
+$375,754
287.504.3%
+$142,823
290.005.2%
+$1.3M
292.506.2%
+$9,259
295.007.1%
+$38,774
297.508.0%
+$601
300.008.9%
+$1.7M
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
0.29
18 Sep
2d
0.25
25 Sep
9d
0.25
2 Oct
16d
0.25
9 Oct
23d
0.25
16 Oct
30d
0.27
23 Oct
37d
0.27
30 Oct
44d
0.26
20 Nov
65d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
225
235
240
250
253
258
263
265
270
273
278
283
285
290
293
298
303
305
315
320
330
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 18 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 67% of the time.
Directional follow-through67%
Moves contained by pricing64%
Average expiry move2.2%
9 Sep
Bullish · 31
-2.0% through expiry
3.0% priced · v2.0
4 Sep
Bearish · 52
-2.0% through expiry
2.5% priced · v2.0
2 Sep
Bearish · 55
-2.0% through expiry
2.8% priced · v2.0
28 Aug
Mixed · 29
-2.0% through expiry
2.5% priced · v2.0
27 Aug
Bearish · 58
3.4% through expiry
2.4% priced · v2.0
26 Aug
Bullish · 32
3.4% through expiry
2.6% priced · v2.0
25 Aug
Mixed · 29
3.4% through expiry
2.2% priced · v2.0
24 Aug
Bullish · 31
3.4% through expiry
2.6% priced · v2.0
21 Aug
Bullish · 32
3.4% through expiry
2.6% priced · v2.0
20 Aug
Bullish · 33
1.4% through expiry
1.8% priced · v2.0
19 Aug
Bearish · 49
1.4% through expiry
2.7% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Bearish · 51
1.4% through expiry
2.1% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 16 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1266 / 1266
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Likely noise
There is useful activity, but aggregate chain data does not isolate participant intent.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Likely noise matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.2M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · atm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure-11
1W price-1.6%
Call premium41%
Put premium59%
Notional split
C 41% / P 59%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
72/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ATM
puts cluster with 439 contracts traded, $959,030 estimated gross traded notional, and 44% of visible notional.
$959,030
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 56 contracts traded, $380,950 estimated gross traded notional, and 17% of visible notional.
$380,950
Calls · 91+ days · ATM
calls cluster with 74 contracts traded, $180,875 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$180,875
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 54 contracts traded, $169,560 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$169,560
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 101 contracts traded, $127,608 estimated gross traded notional, and 6% of visible notional.
$127,608
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Normal range
Activity is broadly in line with recent stored snapshots.
Baseline: 30 completed sessions
Volume rank17th
Volume/OI rank17th
IV rank50th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close275.54
1W-1.6%
RS-9.1
Fair value+17.6%
Options pressure-11
Speculation17
Volatility27
Trend fit72
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 2.5% · 16 sessions
0th
90d avg 2.6% · 30 sessions
7th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.30 · 16 sessions
50th
90d avg 0.29 · 30 sessions
50th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.33 · 16 sessions
62th
90d avg 1.10 · 30 sessions
67th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.07 · 16 sessions
19th
90d avg 0.37 · 30 sessions
17th
180d avg - · 30/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
5 Aug 12:46
Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 2.8%
5 Aug 20:00
Mixed
Pressure -15
Move 2.2%
6 Aug 08:54
Bullish
Pressure 23
Move 2.1%
6 Aug 14:35
Bearish
Pressure -24
Move 1.8%
8 Aug 06:29
Bearish
Pressure -41
Move 2.9%
10 Aug 15:02
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 3.0%
12 Aug 10:20
Mixed
Pressure 16
Move 2.2%
12 Aug 19:49
Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 1.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike135.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike140.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike145.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike150.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike155.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike165.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 3
Strike170.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 9
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.29
Put-call0.37
Expiry25 Sep 2026
Contracts104
Avg IV0.25
Put-call1.79
Expiry2 Oct 2026
Contracts98
Avg IV0.25
Put-call9.29
Expiry9 Oct 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV0.25
Put-call-
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.25
Put-call0.08
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.29
Put IV0.32
Skew0.03
25 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.28
Skew0.03
2 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.25
Put IV0.27
Skew0.02
9 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.24
Skew-
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.24
Put IV0.27
Skew0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractCME270319P00270000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike270.00
Volume282
OI174
IV0.32
ContractCME261016C00290000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike290.00
Volume204
OI721
IV0.24
ContractCME260918C00290000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike290.00
Volume188
OI777
IV0.33
ContractCME270319P00280000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike280.00
Volume127
OI177
IV0.32
ContractCME270319P00290000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike290.00
Volume54
OI257
IV0.32
ContractCME261218P00150000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike150.00
Volume49
OI692
IV0.39
ContractCME270115P00150000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike150.00
Volume49
OI686
IV0.34
ContractCME270319C00280000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike280.00
Volume45
OI142
IV0.25
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.