CME NASDAQ Week ended 31 Jul 2026

Weekly Investor Report

CME Group Inc · Financial Services · Financial Data & Stock Exchanges

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Latest close 267.8 USD
4.9% latest week
Weekly setup

Mixed setup

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -3.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 48.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.9%, after a 13.2% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers. Options positioning is mixed with 29/100 conviction, while the latest news-sentiment score is 66/100. Near-term considerations: volume confirmation is below normal; earnings are due in 81d.

Setup score 41 out of 100
Latest Close 267.8 USD 31 Jul 2026
1W Return 4.9% latest completed week
4W Return 13.2% short-term follow-through
12W Return -4.3% quarterly tape
Trend Breadth 50.0% 26 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio 0.8x vs 13-week average
What is working
  • Price is above Fair Value, showing premium demand versus the model.
  • Latest weekly return ranks in the strongest part of its sector group.
What could go wrong
  • The trend backdrop is inactive, so price action has not confirmed a constructive regime.
  • Price is below the Trend Line, which keeps downside pressure in focus.
  • Activity pressure is negative, which weakens the current setup.
  • Activity pressure is weak, so confirmation is not yet broad enough.
What to watch next
  • Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
  • Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
  • A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through 4.9% Latest completed week; four-week move 13.2%. Indicator stack 28/34 Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window. Trend backdrop Active The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime. Patient Capital Quiet Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing. Options pressure Mixed 29/100 conviction; expected move 1.2%. News sentiment 66/100 8 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read. Event risk 81d Next report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
01 · Price action

Where price is—and whether the trend supports it

The weekly trend is not active. Price is -3.5% below the Trend Line and sits at 48.8% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 4.9%, after a 13.2% four-week move.

Study the full chart

52-week price path

Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price Trend Line Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand

Is real participation confirming the move?

Latest weekly volume is 0.8x the 13-week average. Participation is below its recent norm, so price strength is not receiving full volume confirmation.

26-week volume confirmation

Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
6 Feb 13 Feb 20 Feb 27 Feb 6 Mar 13 Mar 20 Mar 27 Mar 3 Apr 10 Apr 17 Apr 24 Apr 1 May 8 May 15 May 22 May 29 May 5 Jun 12 Jun 19 Jun 26 Jun 3 Jul 10 Jul 17 Jul 24 Jul 31 Jul
Up week Down week
Demand beneath price

Activity pressure and institutional-style signals

These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.

Activity pressure path

Latest 0.1012-week average 0.34

12-week confirmation

Trend active3/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure0/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership0/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.10Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals0Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers

No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.

03 · Momentum and leadership

Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?

Performance is 13.2% over four weeks, -4.3% over 12 weeks, and -0.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 0 consecutive weeks.

Performance by holding period

1W4.9%
4W13.2%
12W-4.3%
26W-4.6%
52W-0.9%
Active trend streak0 weeks
Active weeks in one year26
Trend breadth50.0%

Activity pressure vs relative leadership

Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure-0.90Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change7.5%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership-9.93Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change59.9%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation

What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it

The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth is moderate; valuation is expensive relative to peers.

Open full factor analysis
Factor week 26 Jul 2026 Financial statements through 30 Jun 2026 Field coverage 97% Model confidence 97%

Relative factor standing

Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.

Overall factor strength22/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 79; rank 1 is best.
Value18/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 83; rank 1 is best.
Quality94/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 7; rank 1 is best.
Momentum20/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 81; rank 1 is best.
Growth67/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 34; rank 1 is best.
How to read this

Quality and valuation are separate questions

A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.

Valuation

How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.

P/E
21.6x
Price divided by trailing earnings.
Price / sales
13.6x
Market value relative to trailing revenue.
EV / EBITDA
17.4x
Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
Free-cash-flow yield
4.7%
Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.

Business quality

Margins and the return generated on invested capital.

Gross margin
81.9%
Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
Operating margin
76.8%
Operating profit retained from revenue.
Free-cash-flow margin
64.4%
Free cash flow generated from revenue.
Return on invested capital
14.3%
Operating return generated on invested capital.

Growth and financial strength

Recent business growth and accounting strength.

Revenue growth
5.1%
Latest one-year revenue growth.
EPS growth
13.7%
Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
Free-cash-flow growth
-
Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
Piotroski F-score
5/9
Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.

Shareholder return and balance sheet

Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.

Dividend yield
4.4%
Cash dividends relative to market value.
Buyback yield
0.3%
Net share repurchases relative to market value.
Shareholder yield
4.7%
Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
Net debt / EBITDA
0.2x
Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment

What other market participants are doing

Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.

Options positioningMixed

CME shows mixed options pressure with a 29/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.75, expected move of 1.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Conviction29/100
Expected move1.2%
Put/call volume0.75
Pressure15
Speculation41
Volatility20
Trend agreement46
Open options detail
Insider activity20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

Acquisitions / disposals over the latest 180 days. Insider activity is context, not a stand-alone signal.
News sentiment66/100

Weighted news tone is positive across 8 relevant articles.

4 positive · 4 neutral · 0 negative
Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal
06 · Catalysts and risk

What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been

Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.

Next earnings81dNext report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
Options expected move1.2%Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-16.2%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility5.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.

Weekly gains and losses

Latest 26 completed weeks

Each bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.

Weeks higher14 of 2612 weeks finished lower.
Best week+7.1%Week of 3 Jul.
Worst week-10.3%Week of 26 Jun.
Latest week+4.9%Week of 31 Jul.

Shape of recent returns

Strong gains6
Modest gains8
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses5
Recent vol5.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol3.7%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split27/25Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew2.9% / -3.1%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context

Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?

Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.

08 · Evidence and weekly data

The underlying research record

Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.

Weekly tape35/100

Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 35/100 tape read.

 Indicator analysis16/100

Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 3/12, activity pressure 0/12, relative leadership 0/12.

Activity pressure 0.10; No reversal markers Factors38/100

O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.

Buyback Yield rank 38 Patient CapitalQuiet

Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.

No recent buy signal Options43/100

CME shows mixed options pressure with a 29/100 conviction score, put-call volume ratio of 0.75, expected move of 1.2%, and Sharemaestro trend signal inactive.

Mixed · Options-market disagreement · Expected move 1.2% Sentiment66/100

Weighted news tone is positive across 8 relevant articles.

CME Group Inc. Cl A stock outperforms competitors on strong trading day Insiders20 / 0

20 acquisitions and 0 disposals in the latest 180-day insider tape.

 Earnings81d

Next report is scheduled for 21 Oct 2026; event risk rises as the date approaches.
WeekCloseReturnTrend LineFair ValuePressureLeadershipVolumeTrend
31 Jul 2026267.8 USD4.9%277.6 USD230.7 USD-0.90-9.9312.7MOff
24 Jul 2026255.3 USD4.2%277.4 USD230.1 USD-1.08-14.0415.2MOff
17 Jul 2026245.1 USD2.0%277.8 USD229.6 USD-1.17-19.1812.3MOff
10 Jul 2026240.3 USD1.6%278.4 USD229.1 USD-1.10-24.4515.3MOff
3 Jul 2026236.6 USD7.1%279.2 USD228.6 USD-0.97-24.7518.9MOff
26 Jun 2026221.0 USD-10.3%280.1 USD228.1 USD-0.91-29.5622.3MOff
19 Jun 2026246.4 USD-8.6%281.8 USD227.7 USD-0.84-25.5620.4MOff
12 Jun 2026269.5 USD5.2%282.4 USD227.2 USD-0.79-16.9917.0MOff
5 Jun 2026256.1 USD-5.9%282.6 USD226.5 USD-0.67-19.7227.1MOff
29 May 2026272.2 USD-6.1%283.0 USD225.9 USD-0.73-18.9913.8MOn
22 May 2026289.8 USD-2.6%282.4 USD225.2 USD-0.71-11.8810.8MOn
15 May 2026297.3 USD6.3%281.5 USD224.3 USD-0.64-8.9713.1MOn
8 May 2026279.8 USD-2.9%280.2 USD223.4 USD-0.58-14.9310.5MOn
1 May 2026288.1 USD1.6%279.6 USD222.7 USD-0.18-8.2510.3MOn
How to use this report

This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.