Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
STLD options intelligence
Steel Dynamics Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
49
Market data through 14 Sep 2026
Checked 15 Sep 2026 13:47 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
STLD currently carries bullish options pressure with a 49/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 4.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
4.7%
Near-term move context
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.32
Call-side skew
Trend fit
39
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-0.9%
RS 10.3
Expected move
4.7%
Put-call volume
0.32
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.55
Max pain
210.00
Underlying
239.79
Nearest expiry
18 Sep 2026
Contracts
992
Research Brief
STLD has a bullish chain read with 49/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 228.47–251.11; The largest call open-interest concentration is 200.00; the largest put concentration is 220.00. The most active strike by current volume is 240.00.
Priced range228.47–251.11
Call concentration200.00
Put concentration220.00
Max pain reference210.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 228.47 to 251.11. Max pain at 210.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
228.47239.79 ± 11.32251.11
Confirmation level
A close beyond 251.11 or below 228.47 at the 18 Sep expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 49/100
Pressure is 57/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure57 × 42%
+23.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.0
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement39 × 26%
+10.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility57 × 10%
+5.7
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 200.00; the largest put concentration is 220.00. The most active strike by current volume is 240.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
187
100.00-58.3%
2
176
170.00-29.1%
20
388
180.00-24.9%
24
23
185.00-22.8%
125
15
190.00-20.8%
487
228
195.00-18.7%
26
183
200.00-16.6%
1190
252
210.00-12.4%
69
656
220.00-8.3%
201
506
230.00-4.1%
324
322
240.000.1%
733
207
250.004.3%
583
119
260.008.4%
648
79
270.0012.6%
380
11
280.0016.8%
519
0
290.0020.9%
212
0
300.0025.1%
535
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$1.9MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak240.00+$614,163
Negative peak220.00-$660,502
Nearest balance233.93Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
160.00-33.3%
-$1,781
165.00-31.2%
-$481
170.00-29.1%
+$2,740
175.00-27.0%
-$7,785
180.00-24.9%
+$30,813
185.00-22.8%
+$18,157
190.00-20.8%
+$83,899
195.00-18.7%
-$85,758
200.00-16.6%
+$80,349
210.00-12.4%
-$117,357
220.00-8.3%
-$660,502
230.00-4.1%
-$398,438
240.000.1%
+$614,163
250.004.3%
+$396,286
260.008.4%
+$250,262
270.0012.6%
+$255,794
280.0016.8%
+$304,081
290.0020.9%
+$467,847
300.0025.1%
+$356,693
310.0029.3%
+$188,491
320.0033.5%
+$44,391
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.55
18 Sep
4d
0.42
16 Oct
32d
0.42
20 Nov
67d
0.41
18 Dec
95d
0.41
15 Jan
123d
0.41
19 Feb
158d
0.41
19 Mar
186d
0.41
17 Jun
276d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
195
200
210
220
230
240
250
260
270
280
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 11 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 27% of the time.
Directional follow-through27%
Moves contained by pricing31%
Average expiry move10.6%
20 Aug
Volatility · 50
-10.6% through expiry
15.9% priced · v2.0
19 Aug
Mixed · 44
-10.6% through expiry
11.4% priced · v2.0
18 Aug
Bullish · 40
-10.6% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
17 Aug
Mixed · 43
-10.6% through expiry
4.0% priced · v2.0
14 Aug
Bullish · 43
-10.6% through expiry
4.5% priced · v2.0
13 Aug
Bullish · 48
-12.9% through expiry
4.7% priced · v2.0
12 Aug
Mixed · 34
-12.9% through expiry
4.9% priced · v2.0
11 Aug
Bearish · 40
-12.9% through expiry
5.7% priced · v2.0
10 Aug
Bearish · 43
-12.9% through expiry
6.8% priced · v2.0
7 Aug
Bullish · 42
-12.9% through expiry
6.7% priced · v2.0
6 Aug
Bullish · 42
-9.0% through expiry
8.4% priced · v2.0
5 Aug
Bullish · 51
-9.0% through expiry
9.5% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 14 Sep 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 992 / 992
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate
Activity is spread across expirations with heavier open interest than current volume, which can be consistent with position maintenance.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Multi-expiry position-maintenance candidate matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $5.6M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+57
1W price-0.9%
Call premium54%
Put premium46%
Notional split
C 54% / P 46%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
39/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Roll detection is conservative because opening and closing legs are not directly observable in this snapshot.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 205 contracts traded, $2.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 42% of visible notional.
$2.4M
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 280 contracts traded, $2.3M estimated gross traded notional, and 40% of visible notional.
$2.3M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 25 contracts traded, $302,430 estimated gross traded notional, and 5% of visible notional.
$302,430
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 106 contracts traded, $227,260 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$227,260
Calls · 0-7 days · ATM
calls cluster with 451 contracts traded, $127,408 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$127,408
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 29 completed sessions
Volume rank76th
Volume/OI rank72th
IV rank97th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close239.79
1W-0.9%
RS10.3
Fair value+61.8%
Options pressure57
Speculation41
Volatility57
Trend fit39
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 7.8% · 15 sessions
13th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.46 · 15 sessions
93th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.61 · 15 sessions
27th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 15 sessions
53th
90d avg - · 29/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 29/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
4 Aug 10:12
Bearish
Pressure -40
Move 8.3%
5 Aug 10:16
Bullish
Pressure 72
Move 9.4%
6 Aug 02:21
Bullish
Pressure 52
Move 9.5%
7 Aug 10:40
Bullish
Pressure 39
Move 8.4%
10 Aug 10:25
Bullish
Pressure 51
Move 6.7%
11 Aug 10:44
Bearish
Pressure -28
Move 6.8%
12 Aug 10:45
Bearish
Pressure -24
Move 5.7%
13 Aug 10:25
Mixed
Pressure 2
Move 4.9%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike65.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 30
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 7
Strike75.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike80.00
Calls · V 7 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike85.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike90.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike95.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 14
Strike100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 187
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts102
Avg IV0.55
Put-call0.16
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts56
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.42
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV0.42
Put-call0.29
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts96
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.25
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts104
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.67
Skew
Call/put IV balance
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.53
Skew0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.41
Skew0.01
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.44
Put IV0.43
Skew-0.01
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.41
Put IV0.42
Skew0.02
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.41
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractSTLD260918C00240000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike240.00
Volume451
OI733
IV0.51
ContractSTLD270219C00150000
SideCall
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike150.00
Volume229
OI-
IV0.49
ContractSTLD270319C00250000
SideCall
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike250.00
Volume94
OI552
IV0.41
ContractSTLD270319P00370000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike370.00
Volume88
OI-
IV0.53
ContractSTLD260918C00250000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike250.00
Volume57
OI583
IV0.50
ContractSTLD260918P00240000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike240.00
Volume55
OI322
IV0.54
ContractSTLD270319P00380000
SidePut
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Strike380.00
Volume55
OI-
IV0.56
ContractSTLD270219P00290000
SidePut
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Strike290.00
Volume48
OI1
IV0.41
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) enters results week with a four-week pullback in view21 Jul 2026 01:59
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) weekly slide lands on heavier steel tape24 Jun 2026 23:30
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) drops 11.6% as weekly volume expands23 Jun 2026 11:15
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) draws heavy tape as weekly selling cuts into steel rally22 Jun 2026 08:00
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) adds a 5.3% week to a steep steel-sector run19 Jun 2026 05:22
Steel Dynamics Inc (STLD) three-month run reaches 73.0%16 Jun 2026 03:20
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.