Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
ALMU options intelligence
Aeluma, Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
53
Market data through 11 Aug 2026
Checked 12 Aug 2026 13:40 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
ALMU currently carries volatility options pressure with a 53/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 16.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.14.
Expected move
16.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.14
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.05
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+13.0%
RS -8.6
Expected move
16.5%
Put-call volume
0.05
Volume / OI
0.14
Reference IV
1.21
Max pain
17.50
Underlying
18.30
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
152
Research Brief
ALMU has a volatility chain read with 53/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 15.28–21.32; The largest call open-interest concentration is 20.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00.
Priced range15.28–21.32
Call concentration20.00
Put concentration15.00
Max pain reference17.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Participation is above the ticker's stored normal, which makes the read more noteworthy.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 15.28 to 21.32. Max pain at 17.50 sits inside that range, 4.4% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
15.2818.30 ± 3.0221.32
Confirmation level
A close beyond 21.32 or below 15.28 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 53/100
Pressure is 96/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure96 × 42%
+40.5
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation13 × 22%
+2.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 20.00; the largest put concentration is 15.00. The most active strike by current volume is 20.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
25
2.50-86.3%
1
129
5.00-72.7%
83
180
7.50-59.0%
8
413
10.00-45.4%
93
543
12.50-31.7%
40
109
14.00-23.5%
32
626
15.00-18.0%
103
184
16.00-12.6%
14
189
17.50-4.4%
387
14
19.003.8%
116
279
20.009.3%
1568
161
22.5023.0%
506
191
25.0036.6%
654
34
30.0063.9%
589
0
35.0091.3%
469
0
40.00118.6%
43
0
45.00145.9%
144
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$84,445Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak20.00+$49,470
Negative peak15.00-$13,895
Nearest balance16.40Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.50-86.3%
-$5
5.00-72.7%
-$52
6.00-67.2%
-$2
7.50-59.0%
-$901
9.00-50.8%
-$10
10.00-45.4%
+$745
11.00-39.9%
-$124
12.50-31.7%
-$5,155
14.00-23.5%
-$1,413
15.00-18.0%
-$13,895
16.00-12.6%
-$4,130
17.50-4.4%
+$11,466
19.003.8%
+$6,140
20.009.3%
+$49,470
22.5023.0%
+$14,086
25.0036.6%
+$5,206
30.0063.9%
+$11,903
35.0091.3%
+$3,861
40.00118.6%
+$3,495
45.00145.9%
+$3,760
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Balanced volatility curve
Near- and longer-dated implied volatility are broadly aligned; no exceptional front-expiry premium is visible.
1.21
21 Aug
10d
1.29
18 Sep
38d
1.31
20 Nov
101d
1.32
19 Feb
192d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
15
16
18
19
20
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 11 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 152 / 152
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Volatility expansion bet
The strongest message is movement risk: expected move and implied volatility are carrying more signal than direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Volatility expansion bet matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $196,696 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+96
1W price+13.0%
Call premium96%
Put premium4%
Notional split
C 96% / P 4%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.14
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2054 contracts traded, $164,702 estimated gross traded notional, and 84% of visible notional.
$164,702
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 29 contracts traded, $8,120 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$8,120
Calls · 22-45 days · OTM
calls cluster with 35 contracts traded, $6,392 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$6,392
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 28 contracts traded, $6,240 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$6,240
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 15 contracts traded, $5,325 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$5,325
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Above normal
Activity is running above the recent historical baseline.
Baseline: 10 completed sessions
Volume rank100th
Volume/OI rank100th
IV rank10th
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close18.30
1W+13.0%
RS-8.6
Fair value+88.6%
Options pressure96
Speculation13
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg 24.5% · 10 sessions
0th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 1.33 · 10 sessions
10th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.35 · 10 sessions
10th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
30d avg 0.05 · 10 sessions
100th
90d avg - · 10/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 10/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:29
Bullish
Pressure 59
Move 26.2%
30 Jul 11:13
Bullish
Pressure 60
Move 27.4%
30 Jul 17:12
Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 28.0%
31 Jul 02:05
Volatility
Pressure 96
Move 27.6%
2 Aug 01:45
Volatility
Pressure 66
Move 25.6%
4 Aug 10:15
Bullish
Pressure 60
Move 24.7%
5 Aug 07:52
Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 26.2%
6 Aug 06:27
Volatility
Pressure 67
Move 24.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike2.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 25
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 83
Puts · V 0 · OI 129
Strike6.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike7.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 180
Strike9.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike10.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 93
Puts · V 0 · OI 413
Strike11.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 22
Strike12.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 40
Puts · V 81 · OI 543
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV1.21
Put-call0.04
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts36
Avg IV1.29
Put-call0.44
Expiry20 Nov 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV1.31
Put-call-
Expiry19 Feb 2027
Contracts36
Avg IV1.32
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.39
Put IV1.39
Skew-
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.27
Put IV1.29
Skew0.02
20 Nov 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.38
Put IV1.33
Skew-0.05
19 Feb 2027Balanced skew
Call IV1.34
Put IV1.39
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractALMU260821C00020000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume1966
OI1568
IV1.23
ContractALMU260821P00012500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike12.50
Volume81
OI543
IV1.68
ContractALMU260821C00025000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike25.00
Volume51
OI654
IV0.82
ContractALMU260821C00017500
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.50
Volume22
OI387
IV1.18
ContractALMU260821C00030000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike30.00
Volume17
OI589
IV1.89
ContractALMU260918C00022500
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike22.50
Volume15
OI254
IV1.18
ContractALMU260918P00019000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike19.00
Volume15
OI-
IV1.33
ContractALMU260918C00020000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike20.00
Volume14
OI32
IV1.27
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.