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Weekly closes ยท USD
Market context
Stage
3 ยท Stage 3A ยท Churning, as of 18 Sep 2026
Sentiment
53 ยท As of 21 Sep 2026
RS
-7.04
Dynamics
-0.56
Fair value gap
+19.0%
Week range
47.64โ51.33
Weekly Chart PackCompleted weekly market data ยท Independent research
NYSE ยท Equity ยท United States
TFC
Truist Financial Corp
Financial ServicesBanks - Regional
Truist Financial Corporation is an American bank holding company headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. Its bank operates 2,781 branches in 15 states and Washington, D.C., and offers consumer and commercial banking, securities brokerage, asset management, mortgage, and insurance products and services.
Last updated
18 Sep 2026
Exchange
NYSE ยท NYSE
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Banks - Regional
Currency
USD
Market capitalisation
61,753,202,871
Fair value reference
40.81
Next-week expectancy
Positive ยท 69.72%
Executive chart read
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-09-18, TFC fell 4.75%, moving from 50.98 to 48.56. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is active on the latest week and was active in 11 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -7.04 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -0.56 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is positive at 69.72% based on similar historical setup states.
Week Ending
18 Sep 2026
Latest Close
48.56
12-Week Change
-4.75%
Trend Signal
Active
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 69.72%
Signal Weeks
11 of 12
Weekly Chart Terminal
Select a chart tab to switch views.
Weekly Trend
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Weekly Close
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity LinesDirection Line
Analysis panels
Choose up to 6 panels. Drag panel headers to reorder.
Price Sponsorship Indicator
What it is
Price Sponsorship Indicator PSI
PSI compares the weekly price move with the market activity behind it. It shows whether price has broad support or whether that support is weakening.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-09-18
Price remains unsettled
Price and PSI remain weak or inconsistent. An improvement in the bars would be the first sign of recovery.
PSI score
39/100
1 completed week
Recent support
+7
Limited
Readings pointing the same way
100%
Activity is weighing on price
What it shows
Price and the support behind it
The navy line is price. Green and red bars show support. The coloured trend lines show positive, negative or possible change.
01Support buildsGreen bars rise above zero.
02Price confirmsPrice rises with positive bars.
03Support holdsPositive bars remain with price.
04WarningBars weaken before or with price.
PricePositive trendNegative trendPossible changeStrong supportPositive supportWeak support
What it shows
Is this move specific to the ticker or shared by the market?
This compares the ticker's PSI reading with how widely stocks on its exchange are moving together. It does not change PSI.
Stocks moving together54/100
Broad move building ยท more together
Ticker and market
Weakness is mainly in this ticker
PSI is weak, but the wider market is not showing the same degree of pressure.
PSI
-22.0
Market togetherness
54/100
Ticker supported, market mixed
Positive PSI without a strong shared market move.
Ticker supported, market moving together
Positive PSI within a strong shared market move.
Ticker weak, market mixed
Weak PSI without matching broad market weakness.
Current contextTicker weak, broad market weak
Weak PSI within a strong shared market decline.
Second check
Does Market Dynamics agree?
PSI shows support for the price move. Market Dynamics provides a separate check on whether conditions beneath price point the same way.
What it shows
Both readings are weak
PSI and Market Dynamics point in the same weak direction.
Current reading
-0.56
Four-week change
-1.00
Adaptive Price Envelope
Price, volatility and confirmation
Adaptive Price Envelope APE
See where price sits inside boundaries that adjust to completed-week direction and volatility, then check whether the wider evidence confirms the move.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-09-18
Price is holding around the adaptive centre
The envelope places current price in context without treating a single band touch as a signal. Direction, persistence and the evidence checks below determine the quality of the read.
Rolling market memory and the nearest established acceptance above and below the current price.
Is market memory moving?
Accepted-value migration
Each column is a rolling one-year auction. Brighter areas show stronger price acceptance.
Where is the next market memory?
Auction runway
The next established shelf is materially farther below than above.
Above49.40Established market memory sits 1.7% above the latest close.
Below43.42Established market memory sits 10.6% below the latest close.
Decision map
What would confirm or challenge the current interpretation?
Sustained weekly closes above47.08
Higher-value acceptance
Holding above this boundary while the acceptance centre rises would strengthen the higher-value interpretation.
Primary market-memory magnet43.42
Rotation toward value
This is the centre of the three-year auction and the principal reference if price rotates back through value.
Sustained weekly closes below31.13
Lower-value acceptance
Holding below this boundary while the acceptance centre falls would strengthen the lower-value interpretation.
Decision context
Structural references and cross-signal agreement
The closest market-memory levels, the evidence that agrees or disagrees, and the limits of the current interpretation.
Market memory
Nearest structural nodes
These are historical acceptance references, not live resting orders.
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
49.40
1.7%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
43.42
-10.6%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
38.77
-20.2%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
32.79
-32.5%
Cross-signal agreement
Does the wider Sharemaestro picture agree?
Agreement strengthens context; disagreement identifies where the thesis is vulnerable.
Auction locationShows where the latest close sits relative to established accepted value.Above accepted value
Accepted-value migrationCompares the recent acceptance centre with the preceding one-year auction.Higher
30-week trendThe latest close is 1.4% below the trend line.Price below
Fair-value positionMarket price is 19.0% above the current fair-value reference.Above
Point & Figure structureConfirms whether reversal structure agrees with the current auction direction.Downside breakdown
Earnings repricingShows whether accepted market value is developing with or against the earnings relationship.Expectations ahead
Higher value accepted
The recent auction has built a higher acceptance centre and price is currently above established three-year value.
More room below
The next established shelf is materially farther below than above.
Established market memory
The three-year acceptance centre at 43.42 remains the dominant rotational reference.
Security-specific analogues
How comparable auction states resolved
Fewer than four non-overlapping comparable episodes exist in the visible history.
3 comparable non-overlapping episodes are visible; at least four are required before outcomes are summarised.
Price Action
Completed weekly market tape
Price Action
A deep view of how price is behaving against its own completed history, trend, structural levels and participation.
Current weekly interpretationDeclining structure with weak close
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range. Price is below its completed-week trend reference and that reference is falling.
Full context ยท Developing
Current structureDeclining structure
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range.
Trend relationshipBelow a falling trend
Price is below its completed-week trend reference and that reference is falling.
Support and resistanceSupport 39.65 ยท Resistance 51.20
Nearest completed structural references around the latest close.
The negative weekly move attracted clearly elevated participation.
Price, structure and participation
Where price advanced, failed, reclaimed or lost important ground
Candles preserve the completed weekly tape. Selected annotations identify meaningful finished events and point directly to the week concerned.
Up weekDown weekTrend referenceCompleted supportCompleted resistanceVolumeTypical volumePublished event
What happened this week?
The latest completed candle
The latest week is separated into price change, candle character, closing position and path quality.
Weekly move-3.65%
Latest close versus the preceding completed close.
Candle characterWeak close
Price declined and finished in the lower part of the completed weekly range.
Where the week closedLower part of the range
The close finished at 25% of the completed weekly range.
Path qualityDeveloping
The path is readable, but the completed evidence is not yet consistently aligned.
Current evaluation
What the weekly tape says now
The interpretation combines completed price structure, trend relationship, participation and path quality.
What supports it
Recent completed price swings are progressing lower on both sides of the range.
What would improve it
A sustained close above the nearest completed resistance, supported by firmer participation, would improve confirmation.
What could weaken it
A sustained loss of the nearest completed support would materially weaken the current price structure.
What to watch next
Trend relationship is below a falling trend; participation is strong negative participation, and path quality is developing.
Statistical perspective
Where the latest close sits in its own completed history
These observations describe the available record. They are market context, not predictions of the next move.
Position in completed history82% of range
The latest close's location between the lowest and highest completed closes available for this market.
Distance from completed high-11.2%
How far the latest close sits below the highest completed close in the available history.
Recovery from completed low+138.6%
How far the latest close has advanced from the lowest completed close in the available history.
Latest move versus typical1.4ร typical
The absolute latest weekly move compared with completed weekly moves available before it.
Completed event history
What changed, and when
Only selected completed events are shown. Each annotation is descriptive, not a standalone instruction.
Trend lost
The weekly close moved below the completed trend reference.
Latest week
Trend reclaimed
The weekly close moved back above the completed trend reference.
12 weeks ago
Support structure lost
The weekly close moved below the preceding completed price structure.
27 weeks ago
Upside structure cleared
The weekly close moved above the preceding completed price structure.
32 weeks ago
Range
Sharemaestro Range
Where price is trading
The fitted range, accepted trading area and strongest price levels are calculated automatically from completed weekly market data.
Current stateInside accepted value
52-week position
58.2%
Low to high
Accepted price
49.51
Latest versus accepted: -1.91%
Fitted direction
Rising
0.29% per week
Range pressure
38/100
Balanced pressure
Range condition
Normal
0.97ร normal range
Range pressureCurrent range pressure ยท 50 is balanced
Weekly closeFitted rangeActivity ribbonEstimated activity at priceAutomatic level
Automatic structure
Strongest price levels
Support42.64
From price
-12.2%
Evidence
87/100
Touches
4
Support44.14
From price
-9.1%
Evidence
81/100
Touches
3
Support47.84
From price
-1.5%
Evidence
34/100
Touches
1
Resistance49.51
From price
2.0%
Evidence
96/100
Touches
4
Resistance50.57
From price
4.1%
Evidence
73/100
Touches
2
Current reading
What the range shows
Current positionInside accepted value
Price is at 58.2% of its latest 52-week range.
Fitted directionRising
The fitted centre line is moving +0.29% per week.
Range pressureBalanced pressure
The current pressure reading is 38/100; 50 is balanced.
Next structural level47.84
Support is 1.5% from the latest close with 34/100 evidence strength.
Point & Figure
Price structure ยท volume at price
Point & Figure market structure
Each X marks a rising price box and each O marks a falling price box. Time is removed from the horizontal scale so reversals, breakouts and areas of heavy trading stand out.
MethodAdaptive scale
Smart Money
Completed-week positioning evidence
Smart Money
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the trend or warning of increased risk.
Current Smart Money readSmart Money evidence is mixed
Some visible evidence is supportive, but the combined picture does not yet justify a strong conclusion.
Momentum 0.73 ยท Holding steady
Trend qualityConstructive
The current trend state has persisted for 11 completed weeks; visible confirmation is constructive.
Momentum pathConstructive ยท Holding steady
The latest completed-week level and direction.
Latest positive signalNo recent positive signal
The chart is carrying context rather than a fresh positive event marker.
Risk and warningsWatch
The latest reversal warning was 9 completed weeks ago; it is no longer immediate but remains relevant context.
Price, support and published events
Where confirmation strengthened or risk increased
Selected annotations highlight meaningful completed-week events; every existing chart series and marker remains visible.
Close Price
Trend Line
Demand Threshold Line
Reversal Risk Level
Current evaluation
What the Smart Money chart means now
The reading combines the finished chart state, its direction and the timing of published signals.
What supports it
The current trend relationship and completed-week context are broadly aligned.
What would improve it
Continued alignment without a new warning would reinforce the current constructive position.
What could weaken it
The latest reversal warning was 9 completed weeks ago; it is no longer immediate but remains relevant context.
Published signal history
What changed, and when
Event markers are observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Reversal risk
The chart registered elevated reversal risk.
9 weeks ago
Reversal danger
The chart registered its strongest reversal warning.
31 weeks ago
Reversal risk
The chart registered elevated reversal risk.
32 weeks ago
Market Dynamics
Price and underlying support
Market Dynamics
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the move or beginning to diverge from it.
Zero lineMarket Dynamics Rate of ChangePrice ActionVolume ActionFlip UpFlip Down
Price and support relationship ยท 12 completed weeks
Price is running ahead of Market Dynamics
Price is -4.7% across this view and is in the upper part of its stored price range, while Market Dynamics is -0.56 after a -1.00 change over the latest 4 completed weeks. The price move has less underlying support than its location suggests.
Latest 4 weeks in focus
Price change from 2026-07-03Market DynamicsLatest 4 completed weeks
Zone-to-zone journey model
9% across the current zone span
The model estimates a 5% chance of confirming accumulation within 52 completed weeks and a 87% chance of returning to the source zone first.
Current journey
Distribution to accumulation ยท Leaving source zone
Activated
2026-08-21
Model data
Through 2026-08-21
What Market Dynamics shows
Yes. Market Dynamics follows the completed-week transition between the two sides of a market cycle. Accumulation is the lower zone where selling pressure may be absorbed and support may be forming; distribution is the upper zone where earlier demand may be tiring and supply can begin to take control. The model measures both accumulation to distribution and the reverse journey, and waits for a deeper close or repeated closes before treating a new zone as confirmed. TFC is 9% across its current move from distribution back toward accumulation. The journey remains open because neither the target nor a return to the source has been confirmed. For an investor, the value is in separating an apparent price move from a completed change in market character: target confirmation can strengthen the case that a new phase is taking hold, while a confirmed source return warns that the attempted change did not persist and the risk/reward should be reassessed. The completed journeys below show how 1 transitions in this ticker's stored history reached and confirmed the opposite zone.
Current zone-span position 9%
Distribution to Accumulation ยท 4 completed weeks since exit
Complete within 26 weeks 2%
Confirm the current accumulation zone first
Complete within 52 weeks 5%
Confirm the target zone using completed weeks
Invalidate within 52 weeks 87%
Confirm a return to the source zone first
Question 1 ยท Where has price travelled?
Current journey through the zone span
Zero is the confirmed starting zone; 100% is the opposite target zone.
Observed zone-span positionStarting-zone sideTarget-zone side
Question 2 ยท What does the model estimate?
Current 52-week outcome probability
These are competing model outcomes for the active journey, not next-week forecasts.
Confirm target within 52 weeksReturn to source within 52 weeks
12 weeks1%
26 weeks2%
52 weeks5%
Accumulation zone
27.85 / deep 24.07
Current close
48.56
Distribution zone
50.50 / deep 54.27
Source-zone dwell
7 completed weeks
Market Dynamics -0.56Latest causal completed-week reading12-week change -1.25Change in underlying supportTrend position -1%Close relative to the Trend LineVolume ratio 0.91รRecent activity versus its baseline
What actually happened before?
Successful zone transitions
Target-confirmed opposite-zone transitions from the latest 156 charted weeks.
Most recent successful journeyAccumulation to Distribution ยท Confirmed distribution
2023-11-17โ2026-02-06 ยท 117 completed weeks ยท price move +92.8%. Across this chart, 1 journey confirmed an opposite zone: 1 reached distribution and 0 reached accumulation.
0% ยท confirmed source exit100% ยท confirmed opposite zone
Accumulation to DistributionConfirmed distribution
2023-11-17โ2026-02-06 ยท journey 117w ยท source dwell 7w
Source exit50%Target confirmed
Furthest point
100%
Price move
+92.8%
Time to confirm
117w
Reached and confirmed distribution after 117 completed weeks. Price moved +92.8% from the confirmed source-zone exit.
Earnings and Price Index
Earnings and Price Index
A three-year index of the relationship between earnings power and market price.
Current stateExpectations ahead
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is stable and has persisted through 11 updates.
Spread
Stable
Persistence
11 quarters
Confirmation
Broad support
Repricing pressure
High โ price-led
Market move94.8%
Three-year change
Earnings move-1.5%
Three-year change
Repricing spread-96.3 pts
stable
Current valuation10.8ร
Price relative to earnings power
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is stable and has persisted through 11 updates.
Market price
Earnings power
Repricing spread
Earnings update
Expectations stretched
Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power.
Supporting evidence
Attribution, business confirmation and horizon robustness
The components behind the repricing relationship and the independent evidence that supports or challenges it.
What drove the move?
Earnings and relative valuation contributions
Shows how the earnings move and relative valuation combine into the total market move.
What supports the earnings picture?
Business confirmation
4 of 5 available business-quality checks are supportive.
EarningsRevenueCash generation
Cash conversionWhether reported profit is supported by free cash generation.Supportive
Revenue directionWhether top-line progress supports the earnings direction.Mixed
Free-cash-flow directionWhether free cash flow is improving with earnings.Supportive
Accrual pressureLower accrual pressure is a cleaner confirmation of earnings.Supportive
Share countA stable or falling share count makes per-share progress more durable.Supportive
Signal robustness
Does the relationship persist across time horizons?
Shows whether the same earnings or price lead remains visible from shorter starting points.
Market acceptance
How price responded to each earnings update
Across completed four-week windows, 3 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 2 had a meaningful positive price response.
Professional contextPeer rarity, comparable outcomes and state history
Peer groupBanks - Regional26 comparable companies
Repricing rarity50peer percentile
Spread position56peer percentile
Quality position52peer percentile
Comparable historical outcomes
There are not yet enough comparable point-in-time observations for a responsible outcome summary.
State transitions
Highlights when the dominant relationship between earnings power and market price changed.
Broadly aligned
Shared contraction
Fundamental fracture
Expectations ahead
Related repricing signals
EWBCAligned-led2.5 pts
CFGAligned-led5.4 pts
RFAligned-led-0.6 pts
PNCAligned-led6.6 pts
MTBAligned-led-2.7 pts
USBAligned-led-4.4 pts
Price Cycle
Completed-week market perception
Price Cycle
A deep view of whether price pressure is strong, weak, strengthening, fading or moving through a higher-risk transition.
Current Price Cycle readPositive pressure remains established, but is cooling
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position. Positive pressure remains, but it is becoming less forceful.
+18.99% ยท Positive ยท Cooling
Market positionPositive
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position.
Pressure directionCooling
Positive pressure remains, but it is becoming less forceful.
Trend qualityUnstable
The recent path has changed direction frequently, reducing confidence in persistence.
Risks and warningsTransition risk
Frequent recent changes around balance make the current direction less dependable.
Pressure, price and published transitions
Where market perception strengthened, faded or changed state
The percentage reading is primary. Weekly close is retained only as market context; selected annotations identify meaningful completed transitions.
Market PerceptionPositive pressureNegative pressureWeekly CloseBalanceCrossed upCrossed downPublished transition or Price Action signal
Current evaluation
What the Price Cycle says now
The evaluation combines the finished pressure state, its direction, persistence and historical context.
What supports it
Price remains in positive market-perception territory.
What would improve it
Renewed upward pressure without further loss of path quality would restore confidence.
What could weaken it
Frequent recent changes around balance make the current direction less dependable.
What to watch next
The latest path is cooling with unstable trend quality. Comparable history is constructive follow-through.
Statistical perspective
How unusual, persistent and historically consequential is this position?
Historical observations describe completed evidence. They do not predict the next price move.
Historical positionUpper 36% of history
The latest reading is stronger than 64% of completed observations.
State persistence74 completed weeks
The current positive state has persisted without interruption.
Comparable historyConstructive follow-through
Across 85 comparable completed observations, later closes were higher 60% of the time; the typical move was +2.6%. This is context, not a forecast.
Published transition history
What changed, and when
Transitions are completed observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
4 weeks ago
Elevated strength
Positive pressure entered an historically strong position.
6 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
10 weeks ago
Elevated strength
Positive pressure entered an historically strong position.
12 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
13 weeks ago
Elevated strength
Positive pressure entered an historically strong position.
15 weeks ago
VWAP Control
Completed-week volume-weighted structure
VWAP Control
Shows price against its completed-week volume-weighted references, changes in control and the levels that would confirm or weaken the current reading.
Current controlControl is contested
Price is below the core VWAP, which is rising. 89% of recent weighted activity has been accepted above it.
48/100 pressure
ControlControl is contested
Pressure 48/100 and -18.6 points over four weeks.
VWAP stack1 of 7 below price
6 references converge near 50.33: Year VWAP, 26-week VWAP, Swing high, High-activity anchor, 13-week VWAP, Latest earnings VWAP.
Acceptance89% above
Share of recent completed weighted activity accepted on the prevailing side of the core VWAP.
Control backgroundBuyer controlContestedSeller control
Seller control50 ยท contestedBuyer control
Current VWAP signals
Control, agreement and concentration
Control transfer weakening
Control transfer weakening
Price has completed its first move below the core VWAP; recovery or further acceptance below will decide the next state.
Price and VWAP pressure broadly agree
No material six-week disagreement is present between price direction and VWAP control.
VWAP cluster present
6 references converge near 50.33: Year VWAP, 26-week VWAP, Swing high, High-activity anchor, 13-week VWAP, Latest earnings VWAP.
Confirmation and failure levels
Levels that change the current reading
Confirmation49.34
A completed close above Year VWAP with pressure holding above 60 would strengthen buyer control.
Decision area48.11
52-week VWAP at 48.11, 0.9% below the latest close.
Weakening level48.11
A completed close below 52-week VWAP with acceptance moving under 50% would weaken the present structure.
Current VWAP stack
Volume-weighted price levels
52-week VWAP48.11
-0.93% from close
Year VWAP49.34
+1.60% from close
26-week VWAP49.61
+2.15% from close
Swing high50.31
+3.60% from close
High-activity anchor50.69
+4.39% from close
13-week VWAP50.90
+4.83% from close
Latest earnings VWAP51.13
+5.29% from close
Estimated activity position
Activity above and below price
Below price 44%Above price 56%
40%near price
A notable share of recent weighted activity remains above price and may act as overhead supply.
Estimated from completed weekly typical prices and reported activity; it is not holder-level cost-basis data.
Benchmark, sector and industry
VWAP control comparison
Sector and industry comparisons require at least ten constituents with aligned completed history.
Benchmark ยท SPYWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -33.4 points.
Buyers firmly in control ยท 81/100
Sector ยท Financial ServicesWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -21.3 points.
Buyer control developing ยท 69/100
Industry ยท Banks - RegionalWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -27.8 points.
Buyer control developing ยท 76/100
Historical VWAP outcomes
Reclaims, losses and similar states
Descriptive outcomes from this ticker's visible historyโnot a forecast.
Weekly reclaim83% favourable
Events
6
Median 4w
+1.84%
Median 13w
+6.78%
Typical best
+9.10%
Typical worst
-3.04%
Completed occasions when price moved back above the core VWAP.
Weekly loss29% favourable
Events
7
Median 4w
+5.67%
Median 13w
+6.95%
Typical best
+11.45%
Typical worst
-2.10%
Completed occasions when price moved below the core VWAP.
Comparable control states13 matched weeks
Positive after 4w
92%
Median 4w
+10.01%
Positive after 13w
85%
Median 13w
+13.07%
Best / worst 13w
+19.6% / -16.4%
Outcomes after completed weeks with a similar control score and the same side of the core VWAP.
VWAP control history
Completed changes
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Next-State Map
Next-State Map
Historical one-week transition paths from similar completed-week states.
SMI
Proprietary completed-week evidence
SMI
See whether the underlying conditions beneath price are strengthening, weakening or holding firm.
Current SMI readUnderlying support remains constructive
Price and SMI are not presenting a decisive combined message. The latest reading is based on completed weekly evidence.
0.78 ยท Constructive
Current stateConstructive ยท 0.78
Latest completed-week SMI reading
DirectionHolding steady
How the completed SMI path is changing
PersistenceNew
1 completed week in the current state
Price relationshipMixed relationship
Price and SMI are not presenting a decisive combined message.
Price and SMI transitions
Where underlying support changed
Annotations identify selected completed SMI state changes.
Weekly CloseTrend LineFair ValueActivity Lines
SMI pathDirection, persistence and turning points
SMI 0.78 ยท Constructive
ImprovingHolding steadyWeakening
SMI in context
Comparable SMI states have produced mixed historical outcomes
Across 36 comparable completed observations, 58.3% closed higher after 13 weeks. The median move was +3.3%.
Comparable observations
36
Completed historical readings
Positive outcomes
58.3%
After 13 completed weeks
Median move
+3.3%
Over the following 13 weeks
Versus normal baseline
-3.9 pts
Difference in positive outcome rate
Chart Summary
Key Points
Week Ending
18 Sep 2026
Latest Close
48.56
12-Week Change
-4.75%
Trend Signal
Active
Next-Week Expectancy
Positive 69.72%
Signal Weeks
11 of 12
Vs Trend Line
Below
Vs Fair Value
Above
Relative Strength
-7.04
Market Dynamics
-0.56
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-09-18, TFC fell 4.75%, moving from 50.98 to 48.56. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is active on the latest week and was active in 11 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -7.04 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -0.56 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is positive at 69.72% based on similar historical setup states.
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