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Weekly closes ยท USD
Market context
Stage
1 ยท Stage 1B ยท Basing, as of 18 Sep 2026
Sentiment
52 ยท As of 23 Sep 2026
RS
-7.88
Dynamics
0.83
Fair value gap
+66.7%
Week range
41.34โ43.84
Weekly Chart PackCompleted weekly market data ยท Independent research
NYSE ยท Equity ยท United States
GFI
Gold Fields Ltd ADR
Basic MaterialsGold
Gold Fields Limited is a gold producer with reserves and resources in Chile, South Africa, Ghana, West Africa, Australia and Peru. The company is headquartered in Sandton, South Africa.
Last updated
18 Sep 2026
Exchange
NYSE ยท NYSE
Sector
Basic Materials
Industry
Gold
Currency
USD
Market capitalisation
42,117,135,004
Fair value reference
25.50
Next-week expectancy
Undecided ยท 52.97%
Executive chart read
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-09-18, GFI rose 19.88%, moving from 35.46 to 42.51. The latest weekly close is above the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 0 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -7.88 and has improved across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is 0.83 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 52.97% based on similar historical setup states.
Week Ending
18 Sep 2026
Latest Close
42.51
12-Week Change
19.88%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 52.97%
Signal Weeks
0 of 12
Reversal Map Indicator
Select a chart tab to switch views.
Weekly Trend
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Weekly Close
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity LinesDirection Line
Analysis panels
Choose up to 6 panels. Drag panel headers to reorder.
Price Sponsorship Indicator
What it is
Price Sponsorship Indicator PSI
PSI compares the weekly price move with the market activity behind it. It shows whether price has broad support or whether that support is weakening.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-09-18
Support is starting to improve
PSI is improving, but the change is not yet established. The next completed weeks will show whether support strengthens or fades.
PSI score
55/100
3 completed weeks
Recent support
+2
Limited
Readings pointing the same way
25%
Little clear activity
What it shows
Price and the support behind it
The navy line is price. Green and red bars show support. The coloured trend lines show positive, negative or possible change.
01Support buildsGreen bars rise above zero.
02Price confirmsPrice rises with positive bars.
03Support holdsPositive bars remain with price.
04WarningBars weaken before or with price.
PricePositive trendNegative trendPossible changeStrong supportPositive supportWeak support
What it shows
Is this move specific to the ticker or shared by the market?
This compares the ticker's PSI reading with how widely stocks on its exchange are moving together. It does not change PSI.
Stocks moving together54/100
Broad move building ยท more together
Ticker and market
The ticker reading is mixed
PSI has no clear direction. The wider market adds context, but does not change that mixed reading.
PSI
+10.0
Market togetherness
54/100
Ticker supported, market mixed
Positive PSI without a strong shared market move.
Current contextTicker supported, market moving together
Positive PSI within a strong shared market move.
Ticker weak, market mixed
Weak PSI without matching broad market weakness.
Ticker weak, broad market weak
Weak PSI within a strong shared market decline.
Second check
Does Market Dynamics agree?
PSI shows support for the price move. Market Dynamics provides a separate check on whether conditions beneath price point the same way.
What it shows
The two readings are mixed
Neither reading gives a clear direction.
Current reading
+0.83
Four-week change
+0.74
Sharemaestro ยท GFI ยท Weekly price reversals
RMI Reversal Map Indicator
See where price breaks a previous high or low, turns back, and confirms a change in direction.
โ Broke a prior high / lowโ Closed back across the levelโฒ / โผ Reversal confirmedโ โ Confirmation levelโ Average price since the sweep (VWAP)
Observed follow-through
What happened after confirmation?
Direction-adjusted price moves from the next weekly open. Only outcomes completed by the replay date are included. Before costs; no exit rules applied. Overlapping observations are not independent trades or a forecast.
Dated observations
Setup journal
Reading the chart
The chart opens on the latest 152 weeks. Choose 52 or 104 weeks for a closer view. Only confirmed reversals are shown. Clear confirmations is the stricter starting view; All confirmations also includes reversals that did not meet every strength check. Green marks a confirmed turn up; red marks a confirmed turn down. Dashed outlines mark historical setups. A zone marks where the reversal developed; its end does not mean the whole price move ended. Select a journal entry to review a past setup, or use the replay slider to see what was known at an earlier close.
Annotations adds dates and explanations for every visible zone. A separate Follow-up complete marker shows when eight weeks of tracking finished. The price move may continue beyond it. The numbered notes below the chart also let you select a zone to inspect it. Confirmed reversals can fail; failed setups stay in the history. Follow-through figures describe past price moves before costs; they are not a forecast or trading record.
Results use completed weekly prices. Missing or revised source data can affect the saved history.
Adaptive Price Envelope
Price, volatility and confirmation
Adaptive Price Envelope APE
See where price sits inside boundaries that adjust to completed-week direction and volatility, then check whether the wider evidence confirms the move.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-09-18
Price is advancing above the adaptive centre
The envelope places current price in context without treating a single band touch as a signal. Direction, persistence and the evidence checks below determine the quality of the read.
Use the envelope for price location and Market Dynamics to see whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.
Supportive Market DynamicsCautious Market DynamicsNeutral line
APE and support read
Market Dynamics supports the upper-envelope position
Underlying support is positive while price is on the upper side of APE. Persistence in both readings would strengthen the completed-week trend evidence.
Current reading
+0.83
Four-week change
+0.74
Current path
Strengthening
Confirmation checks
What supports or challenges the current read
A band touch is context, not a conclusion. These independent checks show whether the completed-week move has broader support.
Envelope pathSupportive70% of the envelope
Price location and the direction of the adaptive centre are read together.
Trend LineMixedNot fully aligned
Checks whether completed-week price and the primary trend are moving in the same direction.
Market DynamicsSupportive+0.83 ยท +0.74 over 4 weeks
Tests whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.
Relative strengthCautious-7.9 ยท -9.4 over 4 weeks
Shows whether the listing is strengthening or weakening against its stored comparison benchmark.
ParticipationMixed0.78ร recent volume
Checks whether the current move is attracting more participation than recent completed weeks.
Completed-week analysis
How to interpret this envelope now
Price position
Above the adaptive centre
The latest close sits at 70% of the current lower-to-upper envelope span and has held this state for 1 completed week.
Envelope width
Envelope width is compressed
Current width ranks at the 7th percentile of the recent completed-week history. Compression can precede expansion but does not determine direction.
Evidence agreement
Partial confirmation
60% of the available trend, support, relative-strength and participation checks agree with or do not contradict the current envelope pressure.
What to watch next
Persistence, repair or rejection
Watch completed closes around the adaptive centre (39.15), upper boundary (47.49) and lower boundary (30.80).
Recent completed events
What changed around the envelope
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Upper-envelope break
Price closed above the adaptive upper boundary.
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Upper-envelope break
Price closed above the adaptive upper boundary.
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Upper-envelope break
Price closed above the adaptive upper boundary.
Auction Intelligence
Sharemaestro market acceptance
Auction Intelligence
Where the market has accepted value, how that value is moving, and which price pathways remain structurally open.
Current auction stateHigher value accepted
The recent auction has built a higher acceptance centre and price is currently above established three-year value.
Price location
Above accepted value
Accepted value
Higher
Persistence
7 weeks
Auction runway
More open above
Accepted value9.45โ33.55
Principal three-year auction range
Rolling market memory and the nearest established acceptance above and below the current price.
Is market memory moving?
Accepted-value migration
Each column is a rolling one-year auction. Brighter areas show stronger price acceptance.
Where is the next market memory?
Auction runway
The upside is in price discovery while established market memory remains below.
AboveOpen discoveryNo established acceptance shelf is visible in this direction inside the three-year range.
Below40.36Established market memory sits 5.0% below the latest close.
Decision map
What would confirm or challenge the current interpretation?
Sustained weekly closes above33.55
Higher-value acceptance
Holding above this boundary while the acceptance centre rises would strengthen the higher-value interpretation.
Primary market-memory magnet13.12
Rotation toward value
This is the centre of the three-year auction and the principal reference if price rotates back through value.
Sustained weekly closes below9.45
Lower-value acceptance
Holding below this boundary while the acceptance centre falls would strengthen the lower-value interpretation.
Decision context
Structural references and cross-signal agreement
The closest market-memory levels, the evidence that agrees or disagrees, and the limits of the current interpretation.
Market memory
Nearest structural nodes
These are historical acceptance references, not live resting orders.
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
40.36
-5.1%
Low-acceptance corridorHistorically limited acceptance makes this a potential fast-travel area.
26.74
-37.1%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
22.55
-47.0%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
14.17
-66.7%
Cross-signal agreement
Does the wider Sharemaestro picture agree?
Agreement strengthens context; disagreement identifies where the thesis is vulnerable.
Auction locationShows where the latest close sits relative to established accepted value.Above accepted value
Accepted-value migrationCompares the recent acceptance centre with the preceding one-year auction.Higher
30-week trendThe latest close is 2.1% above the trend line.Price above
Fair-value positionMarket price is 66.7% above the current fair-value reference.Above
Point & Figure structureConfirms whether reversal structure agrees with the current auction direction.Downside breakdown
Earnings repricingShows whether accepted market value is developing with or against the earnings relationship.Expectations ahead
Higher value accepted
The recent auction has built a higher acceptance centre and price is currently above established three-year value.
More open above
The upside is in price discovery while established market memory remains below.
Established market memory
The three-year acceptance centre at 13.12 remains the dominant rotational reference.
Security-specific analogues
How comparable auction states resolved
Fewer than four non-overlapping comparable episodes exist in the visible history.
2 comparable non-overlapping episodes are visible; at least four are required before outcomes are summarised.
Price Action
Completed weekly market tape
Price Action
A deep view of how price is behaving against its own completed history, trend, structural levels and participation.
Current weekly interpretationAdvancing structure with negative but contained
Recent completed price swings are progressing higher on both sides of the range. Price is above its completed-week trend reference, while the reference is falling.
Full context ยท Unstable
Current structureAdvancing structure
Recent completed price swings are progressing higher on both sides of the range.
Trend relationshipAbove trend
Price is above its completed-week trend reference, while the reference is falling.
Support and resistanceSupport 41.43 ยท Resistance 47.24
Nearest completed structural references around the latest close.
Participation qualityNormal participation
Participation was broadly consistent with the market's completed recent history.
Price, structure and participation
Where price advanced, failed, reclaimed or lost important ground
Candles preserve the completed weekly tape. Selected annotations identify meaningful finished events and point directly to the week concerned.
Up weekDown weekTrend referenceCompleted supportCompleted resistanceVolumeTypical volumePublished event
What happened this week?
The latest completed candle
The latest week is separated into price change, candle character, closing position and path quality.
Weekly move-5.74%
Latest close versus the preceding completed close.
Candle characterNegative but contained
Price declined, although selling did not fully control the completed weekly range.
Where the week closedMiddle of the range
The close finished at 47% of the completed weekly range.
Path qualityUnstable
Frequent recent changes in direction reduce confidence in the current price path.
Current evaluation
What the weekly tape says now
The interpretation combines completed price structure, trend relationship, participation and path quality.
What supports it
Recent completed price swings are progressing higher on both sides of the range.
What would improve it
A sustained close above the nearest completed resistance, supported by firmer participation, would improve confirmation.
What could weaken it
A sustained loss of the nearest completed support would materially weaken the current price structure.
What to watch next
Trend relationship is above trend; participation is normal participation, and path quality is unstable.
Statistical perspective
Where the latest close sits in its own completed history
These observations describe the available record. They are market context, not predictions of the next move.
Position in completed history73% of range
The latest close's location between the lowest and highest completed closes available for this market.
Distance from completed high-25.5%
How far the latest close sits below the highest completed close in the available history.
Recovery from completed low+1201.0%
How far the latest close has advanced from the lowest completed close in the available history.
Latest move versus typical1.2ร typical
The absolute latest weekly move compared with completed weekly moves available before it.
Completed event history
What changed, and when
Only selected completed events are shown. Each annotation is descriptive, not a standalone instruction.
Trend reclaimed
The weekly close moved back above the completed trend reference.
4 weeks ago
Support structure lost
The weekly close moved below the preceding completed price structure.
15 weeks ago
Trend lost
The weekly close moved below the completed trend reference.
20 weeks ago
Upside structure cleared
The weekly close moved above the preceding completed price structure.
34 weeks ago
Range
Sharemaestro Range
Where price is trading
The fitted range, accepted trading area and strongest price levels are calculated automatically from completed weekly market data.
Current stateInside accepted value
52-week position
39.8%
Low to high
Accepted price
39.67
Latest versus accepted: 7.16%
Fitted direction
Sideways
-0.10% per week
Range pressure
55/100
Balanced pressure
Range condition
Normal
0.96ร normal range
Range pressureCurrent range pressure ยท 50 is balanced
Weekly closeFitted rangeActivity ribbonEstimated activity at priceAutomatic level
Automatic structure
Strongest price levels
Support39.15
From price
-7.9%
Evidence
94/100
Touches
4
Support41.27
From price
-2.9%
Evidence
91/100
Touches
5
Resistance46.14
From price
8.5%
Evidence
57/100
Touches
3
Resistance53.27
From price
25.3%
Evidence
51/100
Touches
2
Current reading
What the range shows
Current positionInside accepted value
Price is at 39.8% of its latest 52-week range.
Fitted directionSideways
The fitted centre line is moving -0.10% per week.
Range pressureBalanced pressure
The current pressure reading is 55/100; 50 is balanced.
Next structural level46.14
Resistance is 8.5% from the latest close with 57/100 evidence strength.
Point & Figure
Price structure ยท volume at price
Point & Figure market structure
Each X marks a rising price box and each O marks a falling price box. Time is removed from the horizontal scale so reversals, breakouts and areas of heavy trading stand out.
MethodAdaptive scale
Smart Money
Completed-week positioning evidence
Smart Money
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the trend or warning of increased risk.
Current Smart Money readUnderlying support is constructive and strengthening
The visible Smart Money evidence is aligned and its completed-week momentum path is improving.
Momentum 0.27 ยท Improving
Trend qualityConstructive
The current trend state has persisted for 19 completed weeks; visible confirmation is constructive.
Momentum pathSoft ยท Improving
The latest completed-week level and direction.
Latest positive signalNo recent positive signal
The chart is carrying context rather than a fresh positive event marker.
Risk and warningsNormal
Earlier warnings are outside the recent completed-week window.
Price, support and published events
Where confirmation strengthened or risk increased
Selected annotations highlight meaningful completed-week events; every existing chart series and marker remains visible.
Close Price
Trend Line
Demand Threshold Line
Reversal Risk Level
Current evaluation
What the Smart Money chart means now
The reading combines the finished chart state, its direction and the timing of published signals.
What supports it
The current trend relationship and completed-week context are broadly aligned.
What would improve it
Continued alignment without a new warning would reinforce the current constructive position.
What could weaken it
There is no fresh positive event marker, so the current reading depends on continued confirmation rather than a new signal.
Published signal history
What changed, and when
Event markers are observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Reversal danger
The chart registered its strongest reversal warning.
28 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
29 weeks ago
Reversal risk
The chart registered elevated reversal risk.
29 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
30 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
31 weeks ago
Market Dynamics
Price and underlying support
Market Dynamics
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the move or beginning to diverge from it.
Zero lineMarket Dynamics Rate of ChangePrice ActionVolume ActionFlip UpFlip Down
Price and support relationship ยท 12 completed weeks
Underlying support is repairing beneath soft price
Price changed -9.1%, while Market Dynamics improved +0.74 over the latest 4 completed weeks. The gap is constructive but is not yet wide enough to call a decisive divergence.
Latest 4 weeks in focus
Price change from 2026-07-03Market DynamicsLatest 4 completed weeks
Zone-to-zone journey model
24% across the current zone span
The model estimates a 10% chance of confirming accumulation within 52 completed weeks and a 68% chance of returning to the source zone first.
Current journey
Distribution to accumulation ยท Progressing
Activated
2026-03-06
Model data
Through 2026-08-21
What Market Dynamics shows
Yes. Market Dynamics follows the completed-week transition between the two sides of a market cycle. Accumulation is the lower zone where selling pressure may be absorbed and support may be forming; distribution is the upper zone where earlier demand may be tiring and supply can begin to take control. The model measures both accumulation to distribution and the reverse journey, and waits for a deeper close or repeated closes before treating a new zone as confirmed. GFI is 24% across its current move from distribution back toward accumulation. The journey remains open because neither the target nor a return to the source has been confirmed. For an investor, the value is in separating an apparent price move from a completed change in market character: target confirmation can strengthen the case that a new phase is taking hold, while a confirmed source return warns that the attempted change did not persist and the risk/reward should be reassessed. The completed journeys below show how 1 transitions in this ticker's stored history reached and confirmed the opposite zone.
Current zone-span position 24%
Distribution to Accumulation ยท 28 completed weeks since exit
Complete within 26 weeks 4%
Confirm the current accumulation zone first
Complete within 52 weeks 10%
Confirm the target zone using completed weeks
Invalidate within 52 weeks 68%
Confirm a return to the source zone first
Question 1 ยท Where has price travelled?
Current journey through the zone span
Zero is the confirmed starting zone; 100% is the opposite target zone.
Observed zone-span positionStarting-zone sideTarget-zone side
Question 2 ยท What does the model estimate?
Current 52-week outcome probability
These are competing model outcomes for the active journey, not next-week forecasts.
Confirm target within 52 weeksReturn to source within 52 weeks
12 weeks1%
26 weeks4%
52 weeks10%
Accumulation zone
16.30 / deep 10.57
Current close
42.51
Distribution zone
50.69 / deep 56.42
Source-zone dwell
17 completed weeks
Market Dynamics 0.83Latest causal completed-week reading12-week change 1.73Change in underlying supportTrend position 2%Close relative to the Trend LineVolume ratio 1.07รRecent activity versus its baseline
What actually happened before?
Successful zone transitions
Target-confirmed opposite-zone transitions from the latest 156 charted weeks.
Most recent successful journeyAccumulation to Distribution ยท Confirmed distribution
2025-02-07โ2026-02-13 ยท 54 completed weeks ยท price move +200.9%. Across this chart, 1 journey confirmed an opposite zone: 1 reached distribution and 0 reached accumulation.
0% ยท confirmed source exit100% ยท confirmed opposite zone
Accumulation to DistributionConfirmed distribution
2025-02-07โ2026-02-13 ยท journey 54w ยท source dwell 14w
Source exit50%Target confirmed
Furthest point
100%
Price move
+200.9%
Time to confirm
54w
Reached and confirmed distribution after 54 completed weeks. Price moved +200.9% from the confirmed source-zone exit.
Earnings and Price Index
Earnings and Price Index
A three-year index of the relationship between earnings power and market price.
Current stateExpectations ahead
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 11 updates.
Spread
Widening
Persistence
11 quarters
Confirmation
Awaiting refresh
Repricing pressure
Extreme โ price-led
Market move326.9%
Three-year change
Earnings move149.7%
Three-year change
Repricing spread-177.2 pts
widening
Current valuation11.9ร
Price relative to earnings power
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 11 updates.
Market price
Earnings power
Repricing spread
Earnings update
Expectations stretched
Price has moved materially faster than delivered earnings power.
Supporting evidence
Attribution, business confirmation and horizon robustness
The components behind the repricing relationship and the independent evidence that supports or challenges it.
What drove the move?
Earnings and relative valuation contributions
Shows how the earnings move and relative valuation combine into the total market move.
What supports the earnings picture?
Business confirmation
Business confirmation is not yet aligned to the latest earnings update.
The latest business-confirmation view is awaiting aligned financial data.
Signal robustness
Does the relationship persist across time horizons?
Shows whether the same earnings or price lead remains visible from shorter starting points.
Market acceptance
How price responded to each earnings update
Across completed four-week windows, 2 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 4 had a meaningful positive price response.
Professional contextPeer rarity, comparable outcomes and state history
Peer groupGold18 comparable companies
Repricing rarity82peer percentile
Spread position82peer percentile
Quality position88peer percentile
Comparable historical outcomes
Comparable outcomes use the available three-year peer history, are descriptive, include overlapping periods and are not a forecast.
State transitions
Highlights when the dominant relationship between earnings power and market price changed.
Broadly aligned
Fundamental fracture
Expectations ahead
Related repricing signals
AGIEarnings-led225.9 pts
PAASEarnings-led125.7 pts
WPMEarnings-led119.0 pts
BEarnings-led102.6 pts
FSMEarnings-led94.1 pts
KGCEarnings-led86.1 pts
DRDEarnings-led77.9 pts
AEMEarnings-led72.5 pts
Price Cycle
Completed-week market perception
Price Cycle
A deep view of whether price pressure is strong, weak, strengthening, fading or moving through a higher-risk transition.
Current Price Cycle readPositive pressure remains established, but is cooling
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position. Positive pressure remains, but it is becoming less forceful.
+66.70% ยท Positive ยท Cooling
Market positionPositive
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position.
Pressure directionCooling
Positive pressure remains, but it is becoming less forceful.
Trend qualityUnstable
The recent path has changed direction frequently, reducing confidence in persistence.
Risks and warningsTransition risk
Frequent recent changes around balance make the current direction less dependable.
Pressure, price and published transitions
Where market perception strengthened, faded or changed state
The percentage reading is primary. Weekly close is retained only as market context; selected annotations identify meaningful completed transitions.
Market PerceptionPositive pressureNegative pressureWeekly CloseBalanceCrossed upCrossed downPublished transition or Price Action signal
Current evaluation
What the Price Cycle says now
The evaluation combines the finished pressure state, its direction, persistence and historical context.
What supports it
Price remains in positive market-perception territory.
What would improve it
Renewed upward pressure without further loss of path quality would restore confidence.
What could weaken it
Frequent recent changes around balance make the current direction less dependable.
What to watch next
The latest path is cooling with unstable trend quality. Comparable history is mixed follow-through.
Statistical perspective
How unusual, persistent and historically consequential is this position?
Historical observations describe completed evidence. They do not predict the next price move.
Historical positionUpper 20% of history
The latest reading is stronger than 80% of completed observations.
State persistence184 completed weeks
The current positive state has persisted without interruption.
Comparable historyMixed follow-through
Across 130 comparable completed observations, later closes were higher 54% of the time; the typical move was +1.3%. This is context, not a forecast.
Published transition history
What changed, and when
Transitions are completed observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
Latest week
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
20 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
28 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
30 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
37 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
48 weeks ago
VWAP Control
Completed-week volume-weighted structure
VWAP Control
Shows price against its completed-week volume-weighted references, changes in control and the levels that would confirm or weaken the current reading.
Current controlBuyer control developing
Price is above the core VWAP, which is falling. 62% of recent weighted activity has been accepted below it.
65/100 pressure
ControlBuyer control developing
Pressure 65/100 and +3.7 points over four weeks.
VWAP stack4 of 7 below price
4 references converge near 42.06: High-activity anchor, 52-week VWAP, Year VWAP, 26-week VWAP.
Acceptance62% below
Share of recent completed weighted activity accepted on the prevailing side of the core VWAP.
Control backgroundBuyer controlContestedSeller control
Seller control50 ยท contestedBuyer control
Current VWAP signals
Control, agreement and concentration
Constructive VWAP test
Constructive VWAP test
Price is testing the core VWAP while the broader control reading remains constructive.
Price and VWAP pressure broadly agree
No material six-week disagreement is present between price direction and VWAP control.
VWAP cluster present
4 references converge near 42.06: High-activity anchor, 52-week VWAP, Year VWAP, 26-week VWAP.
Confirmation and failure levels
Levels that change the current reading
Confirmation42.70
A completed close above High-activity anchor with pressure holding above 60 would strengthen buyer control.
Decision area42.70
High-activity anchor at 42.70, 0.4% above the latest close.
Weakening level42.24
A completed close below 52-week VWAP with acceptance moving under 50% would weaken the present structure.
Current VWAP stack
Volume-weighted price levels
High-activity anchor42.70
+0.44% from close
52-week VWAP42.24
-0.63% from close
Year VWAP43.05
+1.26% from close
26-week VWAP40.25
-5.32% from close
Swing high45.06
+5.99% from close
Latest earnings VWAP38.84
-8.64% from close
13-week VWAP38.53
-9.37% from close
Estimated activity position
Activity above and below price
Below price 56%Above price 44%
32%near price
A notable share of recent weighted activity remains above price and may act as overhead supply.
Estimated from completed weekly typical prices and reported activity; it is not holder-level cost-basis data.
Benchmark, sector and industry
VWAP control comparison
Sector and industry comparisons require at least ten constituents with aligned completed history.
Benchmark ยท SPYWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -16.6 points.
Buyers firmly in control ยท 81/100
Sector ยท Basic MaterialsStronger control than reference
Stronger control than reference; control-score gap +33.9 points.
Seller control developing ยท 31/100
Industry ยท GoldBroadly aligned with reference
Broadly aligned with reference; control-score gap -9.0 points.
Buyer control developing ยท 74/100
Historical VWAP outcomes
Reclaims, losses and similar states
Descriptive outcomes from this ticker's visible historyโnot a forecast.
Weekly reclaim17% favourable
Events
6
Median 4w
-4.05%
Median 13w
-16.29%
Typical best
+7.21%
Typical worst
-18.93%
Completed occasions when price moved back above the core VWAP.
Weekly loss43% favourable
Events
7
Median 4w
+5.34%
Median 13w
+3.15%
Typical best
+23.63%
Typical worst
-8.13%
Completed occasions when price moved below the core VWAP.
Comparable control states16 matched weeks
Positive after 4w
44%
Median 4w
-4.32%
Positive after 13w
31%
Median 13w
-6.91%
Best / worst 13w
+32.5% / -28.5%
Outcomes after completed weeks with a similar control score and the same side of the core VWAP.
VWAP control history
Completed changes
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
VWAP structure turned lower
The fast VWAP crossed below the core VWAP.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Next-State Map
Next-State Map
Historical one-week transition paths from similar completed-week states.
SMI
Proprietary completed-week evidence
SMI
See whether the underlying conditions beneath price are strengthening, weakening or holding firm.
Current SMI readUnderlying support is fragile, but repair has begun
Price and SMI are not presenting a decisive combined message. The latest reading is based on completed weekly evidence.
0.35 ยท Fragile
Current stateFragile ยท 0.35
Latest completed-week SMI reading
DirectionImproving
How the completed SMI path is changing
PersistenceNew
3 completed weeks in the current state
Price relationshipMixed relationship
Price and SMI are not presenting a decisive combined message.
Price and SMI transitions
Where underlying support changed
Annotations identify selected completed SMI state changes.
Weekly CloseTrend LineFair ValueActivity Lines
SMI pathDirection, persistence and turning points
SMI 0.35 ยท Fragile
ImprovingHolding steadyWeakening
SMI in context
Comparable SMI states have carried a positive historical bias
Across 26 comparable completed observations, 69.2% closed higher after 13 weeks. The median move was +21.7%.
Comparable observations
26
Completed historical readings
Positive outcomes
69.2%
After 13 completed weeks
Median move
+21.7%
Over the following 13 weeks
Versus normal baseline
+8.2 pts
Difference in positive outcome rate
Chart Summary
Key Points
Week Ending
18 Sep 2026
Latest Close
42.51
12-Week Change
19.88%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 52.97%
Signal Weeks
0 of 12
Vs Trend Line
Above
Vs Fair Value
Above
Relative Strength
-7.88
Market Dynamics
0.83
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-09-18, GFI rose 19.88%, moving from 35.46 to 42.51. The latest weekly close is above the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 0 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -7.88 and has improved across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is 0.83 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 52.97% based on similar historical setup states.
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