- The trend backdrop is active with a 2-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
- Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
GRG
LSE
Week ended 07 Aug 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Greggs plc · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Latest close
1,918 GBP
2.0%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 17.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 80.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.0%, after a 22.9% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 54/100.
Setup score
64
out of 100
Latest Close
1,918 GBP
7 Aug 2026
1W Return
2.0%
latest completed week
4W Return
22.9%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
13.0%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
17.3%
9 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
1.7x
vs 13-week average
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Next-week expectancy is negative at 42.51% based on similar historical setup states.
- Recent volatility is running well above the one-year baseline.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
2.0%
Latest completed week; four-week move 22.9%.
Indicator stack
16/100
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Recent
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
Next-Week Expectancy
Negative 42.51%
Historical one-week expectancy contributes to the evidence score when direction is confirmed.
News sentiment
54/100
39 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 17.3% above the Trend Line and sits at 80.0% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 2.0%, after a 22.9% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 1.7x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
13 Feb
20 Feb
27 Feb
6 Mar
13 Mar
20 Mar
27 Mar
3 Apr
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.4812-week average 0.37
12-week confirmation
Trend active5/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure11/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership2/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.48Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals2Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 22.9% over four weeks, 13.0% over 12 weeks, and 17.7% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 2 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak2 weeks
Active weeks in one year9
Trend breadth17.3%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure0.79Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change470.9%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership8.61Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change193.6%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 02 Aug 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 91%
Model confidence 73%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength53/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 48; rank 1 is best.
Value19/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Quality85/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 16; rank 1 is best.
Momentum84/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Growth12/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework52/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 15.7x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 0.9x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 6.7x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 2.2% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 61.5% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 8.7% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 2.4% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 13.7% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 6.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -20.4% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -33.6% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 3.7% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -0.1% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 3.6% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.2x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment54/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 39 relevant articles.
13 positive · 22 neutral · 4 negativePatient CapitalRecent
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-6.3%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.7%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
13 Feb
13 Mar
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
7 Aug
Weeks higher12 of 2614 weeks finished lower.
Best week+18.8%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-7.1%Week of 1 May.
Latest week+2.0%Week of 7 Aug.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains4
Modest gains8
Flat weeks0
Modest losses9
Sharp losses5
Recent vol6.7%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol4.9%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split24/28Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.5% / -3.0%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorGB Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank5 / 100
Group average5.3%
Trend breadth48.0%
Trend48.0%active weekly trend signals
MD74.0%positive activity pressure
RS43.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryGB Restaurants
4-week rank1 / 17
Group average4.5%
Trend breadth70.6%
Trend70.6%active weekly trend signals
MD76.5%positive activity pressure
RS70.6%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape56/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 56/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis50/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 5/12, activity pressure 11/12, relative leadership 2/12.
Activity pressure 0.48; No reversal markers Next-Week ExpectancyNegative 42.51%Next-week expectancy is negative with a 42.51% historical one-week setup read.
Adds short-term historical context without overriding trend, activity, or relative leadership. Factors59/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 87; Small Cap Core rank 40 SVQF52/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 122.5 of 252 Patient CapitalRecentActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks Sentiment54/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 39 relevant articles.
Why Greggs shares surged 21% in July Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aug 2026 | 1,918 GBP | 2.0% | 1,635 GBP | 2,201 GBP | 0.79 | 8.61 | 3.0M | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 1,880 GBP | 18.8% | 1,626 GBP | 2,205 GBP | 0.30 | 6.74 | 6.6M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 1,582 GBP | -0.7% | 1,619 GBP | 2,210 GBP | -0.11 | -9.10 | 2.0M | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 1,593 GBP | 2.1% | 1,622 GBP | 2,217 GBP | 0.04 | -7.73 | 964.5K | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 1,560 GBP | -2.0% | 1,627 GBP | 2,224 GBP | 0.14 | -9.20 | 1.7M | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 1,592 GBP | -3.4% | 1,629 GBP | 2,231 GBP | 0.34 | -9.39 | 144.3K | Off |
| 26 Jun 2026 | 1,648 GBP | 3.3% | 1,632 GBP | 2,237 GBP | 0.51 | -5.19 | 294.3K | Off |
| 19 Jun 2026 | 1,595 GBP | -7.1% | 1,629 GBP | 2,243 GBP | 0.68 | -7.65 | 425.5K | Off |
| 12 Jun 2026 | 1,716 GBP | 1.4% | 1,624 GBP | 2,249 GBP | 0.93 | -2.39 | 153.4K | On |
| 5 Jun 2026 | 1,692 GBP | -1.4% | 1,618 GBP | 2,255 GBP | 1.01 | -3.45 | 560.1K | On |
| 29 May 2026 | 1,716 GBP | -0.6% | 1,613 GBP | 2,261 GBP | 0.60 | -3.14 | 1.5M | On |
| 22 May 2026 | 1,726 GBP | 1.7% | 1,610 GBP | 2,268 GBP | 0.13 | -3.87 | 1.5M | Off |
| 15 May 2026 | 1,697 GBP | 14.0% | 1,609 GBP | 2,274 GBP | -0.13 | -3.76 | 3.9M | Off |
| 8 May 2026 | 1,489 GBP | -1.8% | 1,608 GBP | 2,280 GBP | -0.38 | -16.50 | 1.7M | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.