- The trend backdrop is active with a 10-week active streak.
- Price is above the Trend Line, keeping the weekly tape constructive.
- Activity pressure is positive on the latest completed week.
- Volume is elevated versus the 13-week average, confirming attention.
GRG
LSE
Week ended 02 Oct 2026
Weekly Investor Report
Greggs plc · Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Latest close
2,026.00 GBP
8.9%
latest week
Weekly setup
Constructive, but selective
The weekly trend is active. Price is 19.8% above the Trend Line and sits at 95.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 8.9%, after a 9.8% four-week move. The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers. The latest news-sentiment score is 56/100. Near-term considerations: price is close to its 52-week high.
Setup score
75
out of 100
Latest Close
2,026.00 GBP
2 Oct 2026
1W Return
8.9%
latest completed week
4W Return
9.8%
short-term follow-through
12W Return
29.9%
quarterly tape
Trend Breadth
32.7%
17 of 52 weeks active
Volume Ratio
5.1x
vs 13-week average
- Price is below Fair Value, so the market is still discounting the latest tape.
- Price is close to its 52-week high; watch for continuation or exhaustion.
- Trend Line remains the key weekly regime level.
- Activity pressure is the gauge to monitor for confirmation or fade.
- A volume ratio above 1.5x would show stronger participation in the next move.
Price follow-through
8.9%
Latest completed week; four-week move 9.8%.
Indicator stack
53/72
Trend and activity pressure are weighted against the latest 12-week confirmation window.
Trend backdrop
Active
The trend backdrop defines the current weekly regime.
Patient Capital
Recent
Activity-pressure buy-signal status for institutional accumulation timing.
News sentiment
56/100
11 relevant articles in the latest sentiment read.
01 · Price action
Study the full chart
Where price is—and whether the trend supports it
The weekly trend is active. Price is 19.8% above the Trend Line and sits at 95.1% of its 52-week range. The latest completed week returned 8.9%, after a 9.8% four-week move.
52-week price path
Price vs Trend Line and Fair Value
Price
Trend Line
Fair Value
02 · Volume and demand
Is real participation confirming the move?
Latest weekly volume is 5.1x the 13-week average. Participation is unusually strong and confirms that the move is attracting attention.
26-week volume confirmation
Bar height shows volume; colour shows the weekly price direction
10 Apr
17 Apr
24 Apr
1 May
8 May
15 May
22 May
29 May
5 Jun
12 Jun
19 Jun
26 Jun
3 Jul
10 Jul
17 Jul
24 Jul
31 Jul
7 Aug
14 Aug
21 Aug
28 Aug
4 Sep
11 Sep
18 Sep
25 Sep
2 Oct
Up week
Down week
Demand beneath price
Activity pressure and institutional-style signals
These indicators assess whether participation is improving beneath the headline price move. They are supporting evidence, not proof of institutional buying.
Activity pressure path
Latest 0.7312-week average 0.53
12-week confirmation
Trend active10/12Active trend-backdrop weeks in the latest 12-week window.
Positive pressure9/12Weeks with constructive activity pressure in the latest 12-week window.
Positive leadership10/12Weeks with positive relative leadership in the latest 12-week window.
Activity pressure0.73Current proprietary activity-pressure read.
Buy signals1Accumulation signal count in the latest 12 weeks.
Reversal markers0No reversal markers
No recent accumulation markers. No reversal markers.
03 · Momentum and leadership
Is performance persistent—and is the stock leading?
Performance is 9.8% over four weeks, 29.9% over 12 weeks, and 20.9% over one year. The current trend has remained active for 10 consecutive weeks.
Performance by holding period
Active trend streak10 weeks
Active weeks in one year17
Trend breadth32.7%
Activity pressure vs relative leadership
Activity pressureRelative leadership
Pressure1.21Latest activity-pressure read.
Pressure change8.6%Four-week change in activity pressure.
Leadership19.70Latest relative-leadership reading.
RS change261.1%Four-week change in relative leadership.
04 · Fundamentals and valuation
Open full factor analysis
What investors are paying for—and the quality behind it
The latest factor snapshot indicates quality ranks strongly versus its universe; growth ranks weakly; valuation is expensive relative to peers.
Factor week 02 Oct 2026
Financial statements through 31 Dec 2025
Field coverage 97%
Model confidence 69%
Relative factor standing
Higher display scores are better. Each score is converted from the underlying universe rank, where rank 1 is best.
Overall factor strength54/100Blend of value, momentum, and quality. Underlying universe rank 47; rank 1 is best.
Value19/100Relative valuation strength. Underlying universe rank 82; rank 1 is best.
Quality84/100Profitability and accounting quality. Underlying universe rank 17; rank 1 is best.
Momentum87/100Medium-term price momentum. Underlying universe rank 14; rank 1 is best.
Growth12/100Revenue and earnings growth. Underlying universe rank 89; rank 1 is best.
Quality and valuation are separate questions
A strong company can still carry a demanding valuation. This report shows profitability, growth, balance-sheet strength, and the price paid for those characteristics separately.
Value-quality framework47/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Valuation
How much investors are paying for earnings, sales, and cash flow.
- P/E
- 16.9x Price divided by trailing earnings.
- Price / sales
- 1.0x Market value relative to trailing revenue.
- EV / EBITDA
- 7.2x Enterprise value relative to operating cash earnings.
- Free-cash-flow yield
- 2.1% Free cash flow as a share of enterprise value.
Business quality
Margins and the return generated on invested capital.
- Gross margin
- 61.5% Gross profit retained from each unit of revenue.
- Operating margin
- 8.5% Operating profit retained from revenue.
- Free-cash-flow margin
- 2.4% Free cash flow generated from revenue.
- Return on invested capital
- 13.0% Operating return generated on invested capital.
Growth and financial strength
Recent business growth and accounting strength.
- Revenue growth
- 6.8% Latest one-year revenue growth.
- EPS growth
- -20.3% Latest one-year earnings-per-share growth.
- Free-cash-flow growth
- -33.6% Latest one-year free-cash-flow growth.
- Piotroski F-score
- 3/9 Nine-point accounting-strength checklist.
Shareholder return and balance sheet
Cash returned to owners and financial leverage.
- Dividend yield
- 3.4% Cash dividends relative to market value.
- Buyback yield
- -0.1% Net share repurchases relative to market value.
- Shareholder yield
- 3.3% Dividend yield plus net buyback yield.
- Net debt / EBITDA
- 1.2x Balance-sheet debt relative to operating cash earnings.
05 · Ownership, options, and sentiment
What other market participants are doing
Options, insider transactions, market sentiment, and activity-pressure signals can confirm or challenge the price story. None should be used alone.
Insider activity-
No recent insider transactions are stored for this company.
News sentiment56/100
Weighted news tone is neutral across 11 relevant articles.
3 positive · 8 neutral · 0 negativePatient CapitalRecent
Activity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks
06 · Catalysts and risk
What can move the shares—and how volatile the path has been
Event timing, options-implied movement, drawdown, and weekly return distribution frame the risk around the current setup.
Next earnings-No event is currently stored.
Options expected move-Nearest-chain priced movement where available.
52-week drawdown-1.6%Distance below the 52-week high.
13-week volatility6.1%Standard deviation of weekly returns.
Weekly gains and losses
Latest 26 completed weeksEach bar is one week. Gains rise above the zero line; losses fall below it. Taller bars mean a larger weekly move.
10 Apr
8 May
5 Jun
3 Jul
31 Jul
28 Aug
2 Oct
Weeks higher15 of 2611 weeks finished lower.
Best week+18.8%Week of 31 Jul.
Worst week-7.1%Week of 1 May.
Latest week+8.9%Week of 2 Oct.
Shape of recent returns
Strong gains3
Modest gains12
Flat weeks0
Modest losses7
Sharp losses4
Recent vol6.1%13-week weekly-return volatility.
Base vol5.1%52-week weekly-return volatility.
Up/down split26/26Count of positive and negative weeks in the 52-week window.
Average skew4.3% / -3.3%Average positive week versus average negative week.
07 · Sector and peer context
Is this stock leading—or simply moving with its group?
Sector and industry breadth distinguish company-specific strength from a broad group move.
SectorGB Consumer Cyclical
4-week rank8 / 100
Group average-2.7%
Trend breadth55.0%
Trend55.0%active weekly trend signals
MD55.0%positive activity pressure
RS50.0%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
IndustryGB Restaurants
4-week rank3 / 17
Group average1.0%
Trend breadth70.6%
Trend70.6%active weekly trend signals
MD41.2%positive activity pressure
RS76.5%positive relative leadership
Four-week leaders
08 · Evidence and weekly data
The underlying research record
Every top-level statement above should be traceable to a stored market, fundamental, event, or positioning observation.
Weekly tape69/100
Trend, activity pressure, participation, and risk combine to a 69/100 tape read.
Indicator analysis74/100Latest 12-week confirmation: trend 10/12, activity pressure 9/12, relative leadership 10/12.
Activity pressure 0.73; No reversal markers Factors60/100O'Shaughnessy factor stack blends value, quality, momentum, and confidence.
Buyback Yield rank 88; Small Cap Core rank 41 SVQF47/100Value and quality alignment from the Sharemaestro SVQF framework.
Composite rank 132.5 of 247 Patient CapitalRecentActivity-pressure buy-signal evidence highlights potential institutional accumulation windows.
Recent buy signal in the last 8 weeks Sentiment56/100Weighted news tone is neutral across 11 relevant articles.
Greggs shares are up 10% on a profit upgrade. Should I Buy, Sell, or Hold? Insiders50/100No recent insider transaction evidence is stored.
Earnings50/100No stored earnings event is currently attached to this ticker.
| Week | Close | Return | Trend Line | Fair Value | Pressure | Leadership | Volume | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2026 | 2,026.00 GBP | 8.9% | 1,691.34 GBP | 2,170.33 GBP | 1.21 | 19.70 | 5.0M | On |
| 25 Sep 2026 | 1,861.00 GBP | 3.4% | 1,679.66 GBP | 2,172.59 GBP | 1.04 | 7.78 | 1.1M | On |
| 18 Sep 2026 | 1,800.00 GBP | 4.0% | 1,670.41 GBP | 2,176.34 GBP | 0.95 | 4.62 | 1.5M | On |
| 11 Sep 2026 | 1,731.00 GBP | -6.2% | 1,663.52 GBP | 2,180.49 GBP | 0.94 | 0.70 | 893.6K | On |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 1,845.20 GBP | 0.6% | 1,657.87 GBP | 2,185.66 GBP | 1.11 | 5.46 | 957.4K | On |
| 28 Aug 2026 | 1,834.32 GBP | 0.9% | 1,652.35 GBP | 2,189.18 GBP | 1.16 | 4.81 | 174.8K | On |
| 21 Aug 2026 | 1,818.49 GBP | 0.9% | 1,644.75 GBP | 2,193.18 GBP | 1.30 | 3.95 | 201.0K | On |
| 14 Aug 2026 | 1,802.66 GBP | -5.0% | 1,639.55 GBP | 2,197.08 GBP | 0.91 | 3.60 | 336.0K | On |
| 7 Aug 2026 | 1,897.64 GBP | 0.9% | 1,634.61 GBP | 2,201.08 GBP | 0.47 | 7.48 | 354.3K | On |
| 31 Jul 2026 | 1,880.00 GBP | 18.8% | 1,625.87 GBP | 2,205.39 GBP | -0.03 | 6.74 | 1.2M | On |
| 24 Jul 2026 | 1,582.00 GBP | -0.7% | 1,619.09 GBP | 2,209.55 GBP | -0.37 | -9.10 | 367.9K | Off |
| 17 Jul 2026 | 1,593.00 GBP | 2.1% | 1,622.44 GBP | 2,216.81 GBP | -0.11 | -7.73 | 185.7K | Off |
| 10 Jul 2026 | 1,560.00 GBP | -2.0% | 1,626.92 GBP | 2,223.90 GBP | 0.04 | -9.20 | 360.0K | Off |
| 3 Jul 2026 | 1,592.00 GBP | -3.4% | 1,629.17 GBP | 2,230.85 GBP | 0.34 | -9.39 | 144.3K | Off |
How to use this report
This is a completed-week research summary. It explains the available evidence and its conflicts; it does not predict a guaranteed outcome or replace your own risk assessment. Fundamental figures may refer to an earlier financial reporting period, which is shown above.