3 ยท Stage 3C ยท Breakdown watch, as of 25 Sep 2026
Sentiment
50 ยท As of 29 Sep 2026
RS
-6.12
Dynamics
-1.10
Fair value gap
+30.0%
Week range
39.50โ40.73
Weekly Chart PackCompleted weekly market data ยท Independent research
TOR ยท Equity ยท Canada
SAP
Saputo Inc.
Consumer DefensivePackaged Foods
Saputo Inc. produces, markets, and distributes dairy products in Canada, the United States, Australia, Argentina, and the United Kingdom. The company offers a variety of cheeses comprising mozzarella and cheddar; specialty cheeses, such as ricotta, provolone, parmesan, goat cheese, feta, havarti, snacking, romano, string, blue, and soft and processed cheeses; brie and camembert fine cheeses; and other cheeses, which includes brick, colby, farmer, munster, monterey jack, and fresh curd. It also provides โฆ
Last updated
25 Sep 2026
Exchange
Toronto Stock Exchange ยท TOR
Sector
Consumer Defensive
Industry
Packaged Foods
Currency
CAD
Market capitalisation
15,798,272,671
Fair value reference
31.19
Next-week expectancy
Undecided ยท 49.09%
Executive chart read
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-09-25, SAP fell 2.34%, moving from 41.53 to 40.56. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 0 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -6.12 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -1.10 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 49.09% based on similar historical setup states.
Week Ending
25 Sep 2026
Latest Close
40.56
12-Week Change
-2.34%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 49.09%
Signal Weeks
0 of 12
Chart views
Completed weekly prices ยท Select a view to explore the evidence.
Weekly Trend
All chart layers are hidden. Open Chart options to select a layer or choose Reset.
Weekly Close
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity LinesDirection Line
Analysis panels
Choose up to 6 panels. Drag panel headers to reorder.
Price Sponsorship Indicator
What it is
Price Sponsorship Indicator PSI
PSI compares the weekly price move with the market activity behind it. It shows whether price has broad support or whether that support is weakening.
Move across either panel to inspect a week
PricePositive trendNegative trendPossible changeStrong supportPositive supportWeak support
What it shows
Price and the support behind it
Price above, support below. Both panels follow the same completed weeks. Use the controls to show or hide trend segments and support averages.
Current completed-week read ยท 2026-09-25
Support remains weak
The current price move has little support from PSI. An improvement in the bars would be the first sign of recovery.
PSI score
53/1002 completed weeks
Recent support
-9Limited
Readings pointing the same way
50%Activity supports price
01Support buildsGreen bars rise above zero.
02Price confirmsPrice rises with positive bars.
03Support holdsPositive bars remain with price.
04WarningBars weaken before or with price.
What it shows
Is this move specific to the ticker or shared by the market?
This compares the ticker's PSI reading with how widely stocks on its exchange are moving together. It does not change PSI.
Stocks moving together24/100
Moving together ยท less together
Ticker and market
The ticker reading is mixed
PSI has no clear direction. The wider market adds context, but does not change that mixed reading.
PSI
+7.0
Market togetherness
24/100
Ticker supported, market mixed
Positive PSI without a strong shared market move.
Current contextTicker supported, market moving together
Positive PSI within a strong shared market move.
Ticker weak, market mixed
Weak PSI without matching broad market weakness.
Ticker weak, broad market weak
Weak PSI within a strong shared market decline.
Second check
Does Market Dynamics agree?
PSI shows support for the price move. Market Dynamics provides a separate check on whether conditions beneath price point the same way.
What it shows
The two readings are mixed
Neither reading gives a clear direction.
Current reading
-1.10
Four-week change
-0.56
Sharemaestro ยท SAP ยท Weekly price reversals
RMI Reversal Map Indicator
See where price breaks a previous high or low, turns back, and confirms a change in direction.
โ Broke a prior high / lowโ Closed back across the levelโฒ / โผ Reversal confirmedโ โ Confirmation levelโ Average price since the sweep (VWAP)
Observed follow-through
What happened after confirmation?
Direction-adjusted price moves from the next weekly open. Only outcomes completed by the replay date are included. Before costs; no exit rules applied. Overlapping observations are not independent trades or a forecast.
Dated observations
Setup journal
Reading the chart
The chart opens on the latest 152 weeks. Choose 52 or 104 weeks for a closer view. Only confirmed reversals are shown. Clear confirmations is the stricter starting view; All confirmations also includes reversals that did not meet every strength check. Green marks a confirmed turn up; red marks a confirmed turn down. Dashed outlines mark historical setups. A zone marks where the reversal developed; its end does not mean the whole price move ended. Select a journal entry to review a past setup, or use the replay slider to see what was known at an earlier close.
Annotations adds dates and explanations for every visible zone. A separate Follow-up complete marker shows when eight weeks of tracking finished. The price move may continue beyond it. The numbered notes below the chart also let you select a zone to inspect it. Confirmed reversals can fail; failed setups stay in the history. Follow-through figures describe past price moves before costs; they are not a forecast or trading record.
Results use completed weekly prices. Missing or revised source data can affect the saved history.
Adaptive Price Envelope
Price, volatility and confirmation
Adaptive Price Envelope APE
See where price sits inside boundaries that adjust to completed-week direction and volatility, then check whether the wider evidence confirms the move.
The envelope places current price in context without treating a single band touch as a signal. Direction, persistence and the evidence checks below determine the quality of the read.
Position
64%Above the adaptive centre
Pressure
+18Balanced
Confirmation
50%Partial confirmation
Underlying support
Market Dynamics context
Use the envelope for price location and Market Dynamics to see whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.
Supportive Market DynamicsCautious Market DynamicsNeutral line
APE and support read
Market Dynamics is not confirming the upper-envelope position
Price remains on the upper side of APE while underlying support is cautious. That divergence raises the importance of the adaptive centre and the next completed closes.
Current reading
-1.10
Four-week change
-0.56
Current path
Weakening
Confirmation checks
What supports or challenges the current read
A band touch is context, not a conclusion. These independent checks show whether the completed-week move has broader support.
Envelope pathSupportive64% of the envelope
Price location and the direction of the adaptive centre are read together.
Trend LineCautiousBelow and falling
Checks whether completed-week price and the primary trend are moving in the same direction.
Market DynamicsCautious-1.10 ยท -0.56 over 4 weeks
Tests whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.
Relative strengthMixed-6.1 ยท +2.9 over 4 weeks
Shows whether the listing is strengthening or weakening against its stored comparison benchmark.
ParticipationSupportive2.32ร recent volume
Checks whether the current move is attracting more participation than recent completed weeks.
Completed-week analysis
How to interpret this envelope now
Price position
Above the adaptive centre
The latest close sits at 64% of the current lower-to-upper envelope span and has held this state for 1 completed week.
Envelope width
Envelope width is compressed
Current width ranks at the 5th percentile of the recent completed-week history. Compression can precede expansion but does not determine direction.
Evidence agreement
Partial confirmation
50% of the available trend, support, relative-strength and participation checks agree with or do not contradict the current envelope pressure.
What to watch next
Persistence, repair or rejection
Watch completed closes around the adaptive centre (39.34), upper boundary (42.78) and lower boundary (36.61).
Recent completed events
What changed around the envelope
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Upper-envelope break
Price closed above the adaptive upper boundary.
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Compression release
The envelope began expanding after an unusually compressed period.
Upper-envelope break
Price closed above the adaptive upper boundary.
Lower repair
Price moved back inside the envelope after a lower break.
Price Action
Completed weekly market tape
Price Action
A deep view of how price is behaving against its own completed history, trend, structural levels and participation.
Price, structure and participation
Where price advanced, failed, reclaimed or lost important ground
Candles preserve the completed weekly tape. Selected annotations identify meaningful finished events and point directly to the week concerned.
Up weekDown weekTrend referenceCompleted supportCompleted resistanceVolumeTypical volumePublished event
Current weekly interpretationRange-bound structure with constructive close
Recent completed price swings are mixed, with neither side establishing a clean sequence. Price is below its completed-week trend reference and that reference is falling.
Full context ยท Mixed confirmation
Current structureRange-bound structure
Recent completed price swings are mixed, with neither side establishing a clean sequence.
Trend relationshipBelow a falling trend
Price is below its completed-week trend reference and that reference is falling.
Support and resistanceSupport 34.34 ยท Resistance 40.57
Nearest completed structural references around the latest close.
The positive weekly move attracted clearly elevated participation.
What happened this week?
The latest completed candle
The latest week is separated into price change, candle character, closing position and path quality.
Weekly move+1.86%
Latest close versus the preceding completed close.
Candle characterConstructive close
Price advanced and finished in the upper part of the completed weekly range.
Where the week closedNear the weekly high
The close finished at 86% of the completed weekly range.
Path qualityMixed confirmation
Recent price structure and the longer trend relationship are not fully aligned.
Current evaluation
What the weekly tape says now
The interpretation combines completed price structure, trend relationship, participation and path quality.
What supports it
Recent completed price swings are mixed, with neither side establishing a clean sequence.
What would improve it
A sustained close above the nearest completed resistance, supported by firmer participation, would improve confirmation.
What could weaken it
A sustained loss of the nearest completed support would materially weaken the current price structure.
What to watch next
Trend relationship is below a falling trend; participation is strong positive participation, and path quality is mixed confirmation.
Statistical perspective
Where the latest close sits in its own completed history
These observations describe the available record. They are market context, not predictions of the next move.
Position in completed history80% of range
The latest close's location between the lowest and highest completed closes available for this market.
Distance from completed high-10.0%
How far the latest close sits below the highest completed close in the available history.
Recovery from completed low+81.5%
How far the latest close has advanced from the lowest completed close in the available history.
Latest move versus typical1.1ร typical
The absolute latest weekly move compared with completed weekly moves available before it.
Completed event history
What changed, and when
Only selected completed events are shown. Each annotation is descriptive, not a standalone instruction.
High-participation reversal
Price changed weekly direction with elevated participation.
1 week ago
Trend lost
The weekly close moved below the completed trend reference.
5 weeks ago
Trend reclaimed
The weekly close moved back above the completed trend reference.
10 weeks ago
Support structure lost
The weekly close moved below the preceding completed price structure.
23 weeks ago
Upside structure cleared
The weekly close moved above the preceding completed price structure.
33 weeks ago
Range
Sharemaestro Range
Where price is trading
The fitted range, accepted trading area and strongest price levels are calculated automatically from completed weekly market data.
Current stateInside accepted value
Range pressureCurrent range pressure ยท 50 is balanced
Weekly closeFitted rangeActivity ribbonEstimated activity at priceAutomatic level
52-week position
63.5%
Low to high
Accepted price
41.02
Latest versus accepted: -1.13%
Fitted direction
Rising
0.15% per week
Range pressure
41/100
Balanced pressure
Range condition
Contracting
0.73ร normal range
Automatic structure
Strongest price levels
Structural price levels, distance from close and supporting evidence
Reference
Price
From close
Evidence
Touches
Support
33.30
-17.9%
68/100
2
Support
39.07
-3.7%
67/100
4
Support
40.21
-0.9%
66/100
2
Resistance
41.54
2.4%
98/100
6
Resistance
43.12
6.3%
82/100
4
Current reading
What the range shows
Current positionInside accepted value
Price is at 63.5% of its latest 52-week range.
Fitted directionRising
The fitted centre line is moving +0.15% per week.
Range pressureBalanced pressure
The current pressure reading is 41/100; 50 is balanced.
Next structural level40.21
Support is 0.9% from the latest close with 66/100 evidence strength.
Point & Figure
Price structure ยท volume at price
Point & Figure market structure
Each X marks a rising price box and each O marks a falling price box. Time is removed from the horizontal scale so reversals, breakouts and areas of heavy trading stand out.
MethodAdaptive scale
Smart Money
Completed-week positioning evidence
Smart Money
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the trend or warning of increased risk.
Price, support and published events
Where confirmation strengthened or risk increased
Selected annotations highlight meaningful completed-week events; every existing chart series and marker remains visible.
Close Price
Trend Line
Demand Threshold Line
Reversal Risk Level
Current Smart Money readSmart Money support is weak
The current completed-week evidence is not providing dependable confirmation for price.
Momentum 0.36 ยท Weakening
Trend qualityWeak alignment
The current trend state has persisted for 13 completed weeks; visible confirmation is weak alignment.
Momentum pathSoft ยท Weakening
The latest completed-week level and direction.
Latest positive signalNo recent positive signal
The chart is carrying context rather than a fresh positive event marker.
Risk and warningsWatch
The latest reversal warning was 5 completed weeks ago; it is no longer immediate but remains relevant context.
Current evaluation
What the Smart Money chart means now
The reading combines the finished chart state, its direction and the timing of published signals.
What supports it
There is limited positive confirmation; the chart should be read cautiously until support improves.
What would improve it
A turn higher in the momentum path, followed by steadier trend confirmation, would strengthen the reading.
What could weaken it
The latest reversal warning was 5 completed weeks ago; it is no longer immediate but remains relevant context.
Published signal history
What changed, and when
Event markers are observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
5 weeks ago
Reversal danger
The chart registered its strongest reversal warning.
5 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
6 weeks ago
Reversal risk
The chart registered elevated reversal risk.
6 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
10 weeks ago
Market Dynamics
Price and underlying support
Market Dynamics
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the move or beginning to diverge from it.
Zero lineMarket Dynamics Rate of ChangePrice ActionVolume ActionFlip UpFlip Down
Price and support relationship ยท 12 completed weeks
Price is running ahead of Market Dynamics
Price is -2.3% across this view and is in the upper part of its stored price range, while Market Dynamics is -1.10 after a -0.56 change over the latest 4 completed weeks. The price move has less underlying support than its location suggests.
Latest 4 weeks in focus
Price change from 2026-07-10Market DynamicsLatest 4 completed weeks
Zone-to-zone journey model
9% across the current zone span
The model estimates a 5% chance of confirming accumulation within 52 completed weeks and a 80% chance of returning to the source zone first.
Current journey
Distribution to accumulation ยท Leaving source zone
Activated
2026-06-12
Model data
Through 2026-08-21
What Market Dynamics shows
Yes. Market Dynamics follows the completed-week transition between the two sides of a market cycle. Accumulation is the lower zone where selling pressure may be absorbed and support may be forming; distribution is the upper zone where earlier demand may be tiring and supply can begin to take control. The model measures both accumulation to distribution and the reverse journey, and waits for a deeper close or repeated closes before treating a new zone as confirmed. SAP is 9% across its current move from distribution back toward accumulation. The journey remains open because neither the target nor a return to the source has been confirmed. For an investor, the value is in separating an apparent price move from a completed change in market character: target confirmation can strengthen the case that a new phase is taking hold, while a confirmed source return warns that the attempted change did not persist and the risk/reward should be reassessed. The completed journeys below show how 1 transitions in this ticker's stored history reached and confirmed the opposite zone.
Current zone-span position 9%
Distribution to Accumulation ยท 15 completed weeks since exit
Complete within 26 weeks 3%
Confirm the current accumulation zone first
Complete within 52 weeks 5%
Confirm the target zone using completed weeks
Invalidate within 52 weeks 80%
Confirm a return to the source zone first
Question 1 ยท Where has price travelled?
Current journey through the zone span
Zero is the confirmed starting zone; 100% is the opposite target zone.
Observed zone-span positionStarting-zone sideTarget-zone side
Question 2 ยท What does the model estimate?
Current 52-week outcome probability
These are competing model outcomes for the active journey, not next-week forecasts.
Confirm target within 52 weeksReturn to source within 52 weeks
12 weeks1%
26 weeks3%
52 weeks5%
Accumulation zone
25.41 / deep 22.64
Current close
40.56
Distribution zone
42.00 / deep 44.76
Source-zone dwell
2 completed weeks
Market Dynamics -1.10Latest causal completed-week reading12-week change -0.11Change in underlying supportTrend position -2%Close relative to the Trend LineVolume ratio 0.63รRecent activity versus its baseline
What actually happened before?
Successful zone transitions
Target-confirmed opposite-zone transitions from the latest 156 charted weeks.
Most recent successful journeyAccumulation to Distribution ยท Confirmed distribution
2025-04-18โ2026-02-13 ยท 44 completed weeks ยท price move +64.8%. Across this chart, 1 journey confirmed an opposite zone: 1 reached distribution and 0 reached accumulation.
0% ยท confirmed source exit100% ยท confirmed opposite zone
Accumulation to DistributionConfirmed distribution
2025-04-18โ2026-02-13 ยท journey 44w ยท source dwell 17w
Source exit50%Target confirmed
Furthest point
100%
Price move
+64.8%
Time to confirm
44w
Reached and confirmed distribution after 44 completed weeks. Price moved +64.8% from the confirmed source-zone exit.
Price Cycle
Completed-week market perception
Price Cycle
A deep view of whether price pressure is strong, weak, strengthening, fading or moving through a higher-risk transition.
Pressure, price and published transitions
Where market perception strengthened, faded or changed state
The percentage reading is primary. Weekly close is retained only as market context; selected annotations identify meaningful completed transitions.
Market PerceptionPositive pressureNegative pressureWeekly CloseBalanceCrossed upCrossed downPublished transition or Price Action signal
Current Price Cycle readPositive pressure is historically strong and holding steady
Positive pressure is elevated relative to the completed history. The latest completed readings are broadly stable.
+30.03% ยท Historically strong ยท Holding steady
Market positionHistorically strong
Positive pressure is elevated relative to the completed history.
Pressure directionHolding steady
The latest completed readings are broadly stable.
Trend qualityMixed
Recent pressure is moving unevenly and needs further confirmation.
Risks and warningsNormal
No elevated completed-week pressure warning is active.
Current evaluation
What the Price Cycle says now
The evaluation combines the finished pressure state, its direction, persistence and historical context.
What supports it
Price remains in positive market-perception territory.
What would improve it
Continued positive pressure with an orderly completed path would strengthen confirmation.
What could weaken it
A turn lower in the pressure path or a loss of balance would weaken the current interpretation.
What to watch next
The latest path is holding steady with mixed trend quality. Comparable history is limited record.
Statistical perspective
How unusual, persistent and historically consequential is this position?
Historical observations describe completed evidence. They do not predict the next price move.
Historical positionUpper 12% of history
The latest reading is stronger than 88% of completed observations.
State persistence60 completed weeks
The current historically strong state has persisted without interruption.
Comparable historyLimited record
There are not yet enough comparable completed observations for a dependable historical summary.
Published transition history
What changed, and when
Transitions are completed observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
3 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
9 weeks ago
Elevated strength
Positive pressure entered an historically strong position.
10 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
12 weeks ago
Elevated strength
Positive pressure entered an historically strong position.
13 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
14 weeks ago
VWAP Control
Completed-week volume-weighted structure
VWAP Control
Read who has control, whether that control is strengthening, and which price levels would change the picture.
Price, VWAP structure and control transfers
Where control changed
156 completed weeks ยท Reported weekly volume
Price and its referencesThe navy line is price. Compare it with the VWAP lines to see whether it is holding above or below areas of volume-weighted trading.
Control over timeGreen, blue and rose backgrounds mark buyer control, contested conditions and seller control. Circles mark completed changes in control.
Strength of controlThe lower panel follows pressure through the same weeks. Higher readings favour buyers; lower readings favour sellers. This is a strength reading, not a probability.
Control backgroundBuyer controlContestedSeller control
Pressure through time ยท green above 60: buyer control ยท blue between 40 and 60: contested ยท rose below 40: seller control.
Current controlControl is contested
Price is below the core VWAP, which is falling. 92% of recent weighted activity has been accepted below it.
Pressure 41/100 and +3.0 points over four weeks.
VWAP stack4 of 7 below price
7 references converge near 40.74: 52-week VWAP, 13-week VWAP, Swing high, Latest earnings VWAP, 26-week VWAP, High-activity anchor, Year VWAP.
Acceptance92% below
Share of recent completed weighted activity accepted on the prevailing side of the core VWAP.
Core direction-0.3% / week
Four-week direction; change in pace -0.8 pts.
Stretch0.2 normal ranges below
Price is -1.1% from the core VWAP.
Persistence6 completed weeks
Price has remained below the core VWAP.
Current VWAP signals
Control, agreement and concentration
01 ยท Control trajectoryWeak VWAP test
Price is close to the core VWAP, but the completed control evidence still favours sellers.
02 ยท Price and pressurePrice and VWAP pressure broadly agree
No material six-week disagreement is present between price direction and VWAP control.
03 ยท Reference concentrationVWAP cluster present
7 references converge near 40.74: 52-week VWAP, 13-week VWAP, Swing high, Latest earnings VWAP, 26-week VWAP, High-activity anchor, Year VWAP.
Confirmation and failure levels
Levels that change the current reading
Confirmation41.00
A completed close above 26-week VWAP with pressure holding above 60 would strengthen buyer control.
Decision area40.34
52-week VWAP at 40.34, 0.5% below the latest close.
Weakening level40.34
A completed close below 52-week VWAP with acceptance moving under 50% would weaken the present structure.
Current VWAP stack
Volume-weighted price levels
View exact VWAP reference values
VWAP references relative to the latest close
Reference
Price
From close
52-week VWAP
40.34
-0.53%
13-week VWAP
40.33
-0.56%
Swing high
40.28
-0.68%
Latest earnings VWAP
40.27
-0.72%
26-week VWAP
41.00
+1.08%
High-activity anchor
41.47
+2.23%
Year VWAP
41.47
+2.24%
Estimated activity position
Activity above and below price
Below price 47%Above price 53%
45%near price
A notable share of recent weighted activity remains above price and may act as overhead supply.
Estimated from completed weekly typical prices and reported activity; it is not holder-level cost-basis data.
Benchmark, sector and industry
VWAP control comparison
Sector and industry comparisons require at least ten constituents with aligned completed history.
Benchmark ยท ^GSPTSEWeaker control than reference
Weaker control than reference; control-score gap -34.4 points.
Buyer control developing ยท 76/100
Sector ยท Consumer DefensiveStronger control than reference
Stronger control than reference; control-score gap +23.4 points.
Sellers firmly in control ยท 18/100
Historical VWAP outcomes
Reclaims, losses and similar states
Descriptive outcomes from this ticker's visible historyโnot a forecast.
Weekly reclaim67% favourable
Events
6
Median 4w
+1.89%
Median 13w
+8.04%
Typical best
+8.16%
Typical worst
-4.12%
Completed occasions when price moved back above the core VWAP.
Weekly loss40% favourable
Events
5
Median 4w
+3.63%
Median 13w
+11.57%
Typical best
+11.57%
Typical worst
-1.34%
Completed occasions when price moved below the core VWAP.
Comparable control states12 matched weeks
Positive after 4w
50%
Median 4w
+0.14%
Positive after 13w
75%
Median 13w
+6.62%
Best / worst 13w
+23.5% / -16.6%
Outcomes after completed weeks with a similar control score and the same side of the core VWAP.
VWAP control history
Completed changes
Seller pressure established
The completed control reading moved into negative territory.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
Core VWAP lost
Price completed the week below the core VWAP.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
Next-State Map
Next-State Map
Historical one-week transition paths from similar completed-week states.
SMI
Proprietary completed-week evidence
SMI
See whether the underlying conditions beneath price are strengthening, weakening or holding firm.
Price and SMI transitions
Where underlying support changed
Annotations identify selected completed SMI state changes.
Weekly CloseTrend LineFair ValueActivity Lines
SMI pathDirection, persistence and turning points
SMI 0.34 ยท Fragile
ImprovingHolding steadyWeakening
Current SMI readUnderlying support remains weak and requires repair
Price weakness is accompanied by a cautious SMI state. The latest reading is based on completed weekly evidence.
0.34 ยท Fragile
Current stateFragile ยท 0.34
Latest completed-week SMI reading
DirectionWeakening
How the completed SMI path is changing
PersistenceNew
1 completed week in the current state
Price relationshipConfirming price weakness
Price weakness is accompanied by a cautious SMI state.
SMI in context
Comparable SMI states have carried a cautious historical bias
Across 15 comparable completed observations, 33.3% closed higher after 13 weeks. The median move was -4.3%.
Comparable observations
15Completed historical readings
Positive outcomes
33.3%After 13 completed weeks
Median move
-4.3%Over the following 13 weeks
Versus normal baseline
-17.7 ptsDifference in positive outcome rate
Chart Summary
Key Points
Week Ending
25 Sep 2026
Latest Close
40.56
12-Week Change
-2.34%
Trend Signal
Inactive
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 49.09%
Signal Weeks
0 of 12
Vs Trend Line
Below
Vs Fair Value
Above
Relative Strength
-6.12
Market Dynamics
-1.10
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-09-25, SAP fell 2.34%, moving from 41.53 to 40.56. The latest weekly close is below the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is inactive on the latest week and was active in 0 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is -6.12 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is -1.10 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 49.09% based on similar historical setup states.
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