Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
MRX options intelligence
Marex Group plc Ordinary Shares options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
48
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 12:04 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
MRX currently carries volatility options pressure with a 48/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.00.
Expected move
11.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.00
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.17
Call-side skew
Trend fit
37
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-1.0%
RS 39.2
Expected move
11.3%
Put-call volume
0.17
Volume / OI
0.00
Reference IV
0.65
Max pain
65.00
Underlying
64.92
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
200
Research Brief
MRX has a volatility chain read with 48/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 57.60–72.24; The largest call open-interest concentration is 65.00; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 65.00.
Priced range57.60–72.24
Call concentration65.00
Put concentration65.00
Max pain reference65.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 57.60 to 72.24. Max pain at 65.00 sits inside that range, 0.1% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
57.6064.92 ± 7.3272.24
Confirmation level
A close beyond 72.24 or below 57.60 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 48/100
Pressure is 71/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure71 × 42%
+30.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation0 × 22%
+0.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement37 × 26%
+9.5
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility86 × 10%
+8.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 65.00; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 65.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
0
35.00-46.1%
0
0
40.00-38.4%
0
0
45.00-30.7%
0
5
50.00-23.0%
5
12
55.00-15.3%
10
27
60.00-7.6%
26
82
65.000.1%
356
10
70.007.8%
283
0
75.0015.5%
58
0
80.0023.2%
8
0
85.0030.9%
2
0
90.0038.6%
27
0
95.0046.3%
0
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$139,513Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak65.00+$68,821
Negative peak50.00-$19,259
Nearest balance54.24Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
12.50-80.7%
-$135
20.00-69.2%
-$12
25.00-61.5%
-$1
30.00-53.8%
+$63
35.00-46.1%
+$524
40.00-38.4%
+$782
45.00-30.7%
-$3,848
50.00-23.0%
-$19,259
55.00-15.3%
+$3,476
60.00-7.6%
+$14,075
65.000.1%
+$68,821
70.007.8%
+$66,455
75.0015.5%
+$2,589
80.0023.2%
+$4,431
85.0030.9%
+$145
90.0038.6%
+$1,259
95.0046.3%
+$6
100.0054.0%
+$142
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.65
21 Aug
21d
0.54
18 Sep
49d
0.53
18 Dec
140d
0.53
15 Jan
168d
0.52
19 Mar
231d
0.53
17 Dec
504d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
55
60
65
70
75
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 200 / 200
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2,230 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 8-21 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+71
1W price-1.0%
Call premium91%
Put premium9%
Notional split
C 91% / P 9%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.00
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
37/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
12 Aug
Matched earnings event is 8 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 8-21 days · ATM
calls cluster with 6 contracts traded, $2,040 estimated gross traded notional, and 91% of visible notional.
$2,040
Puts · 8-21 days · OTM
puts cluster with 1 contracts traded, $190 estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$190
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close64.92
1W-1.0%
RS39.2
Fair value+82.1%
Options pressure71
Speculation0
Volatility86
Trend fit37
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:45
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.7%
30 Jul 10:41
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 12.5%
30 Jul 15:14
Volatility
Pressure -54
Move 12.4%
31 Jul 08:10
Bearish
Pressure -33
Move 11.8%
1 Aug 09:01
Volatility
Pressure 71
Move 11.2%
2 Aug 18:35
Volatility
Pressure -54
Move 11.3%
3 Aug 11:04
Volatility
Pressure 71
Move 11.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike45.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 5
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 10
Puts · V 0 · OI 12
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 26
Puts · V 1 · OI 27
Strike65.00
Calls · V 6 · OI 356
Puts · V 0 · OI 82
Strike70.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 283
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts26
Avg IV0.65
Put-call0.17
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts34
Avg IV0.54
Put-call-
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts42
Avg IV0.53
Put-call-
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts28
Avg IV0.52
Put-call-
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.58
Put IV0.66
Skew0.08
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.54
Put IV0.56
Skew0.02
18 Dec 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.57
Skew0.08
15 Jan 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.48
Put IV0.55
Skew0.07
19 Mar 2027Put IV premium
Call IV0.49
Put IV0.55
Skew0.06
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMRX260821C00065000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume6
OI356
IV0.54
ContractMRX260821P00060000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume1
OI27
IV0.66
ContractMRX270115P00012500
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike12.50
Volume-
OI400
IV0.86
ContractMRX260918P00050000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI375
IV0.29
ContractMRX260918P00045000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI354
IV0.39
ContractMRX261218P00050000
SidePut
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike50.00
Volume-
OI301
IV0.58
ContractMRX260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume-
OI283
IV0.58
ContractMRX271217P00045000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike45.00
Volume-
OI150
IV0.57
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
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Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.