Consumer Defensive ยท Household & Personal Products

EPC relative to SPB

Edgewell Personal Care Co / Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc

EPC is relatively depressed; SPB is relatively extended against their shared history.

EPC chart โ†—SPB chart โ†—More EPC pairs โ†—

Weekly 18 Sep 2026 ยท Daily 8 Oct 2026 ยท 156 completed weeks

Weekly separation -0.83ฯƒHistorical percentile 23
Relationship quality 45/100
Evidence alignment 52/100
Stability 92/1007 centre crossings
Break risk 52/100Lower is more dependable
Daily timing Gap extending2.15ฯƒ latest
The relationship through time

Price, separation and the daily turn

The weekly gap measures unusual separation. The two price paths show how it formed. Daily timing shows whether it has started to close.

Weekly gapPrice comparisonDaily timing
Weekly relationship gap

How far apart are they compared with normal?

EPC / SPB gap -0.83ฯƒ
How far apart are they compared with normal?Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, EPC is extended relative to SPB; below zero, EPC is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Zero is the fitted historical centre. Shading marks one standard deviation either side. The fit uses this editionโ€™s full weekly sample; this chart is not a historical trading signal. Above zero, EPC is extended relative to SPB; below zero, EPC is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateEPC / SPB gap
29 Sep 20231.04ฯƒ
6 Oct 20230.99ฯƒ
13 Oct 20230.91ฯƒ
20 Oct 20230.90ฯƒ
27 Oct 20230.84ฯƒ
3 Nov 20230.98ฯƒ
10 Nov 20230.69ฯƒ
17 Nov 20231.37ฯƒ
24 Nov 20231.49ฯƒ
1 Dec 20231.15ฯƒ
8 Dec 20230.97ฯƒ
15 Dec 20230.81ฯƒ
22 Dec 20230.85ฯƒ
29 Dec 20230.91ฯƒ
5 Jan 20240.96ฯƒ
12 Jan 20241.17ฯƒ
19 Jan 20241.12ฯƒ
26 Jan 20241.02ฯƒ
2 Feb 20241.05ฯƒ
9 Feb 20240.97ฯƒ
16 Feb 20240.90ฯƒ
23 Feb 20241.17ฯƒ
1 Mar 20241.09ฯƒ
8 Mar 20240.96ฯƒ
15 Mar 20240.83ฯƒ
22 Mar 20240.75ฯƒ
29 Mar 20240.73ฯƒ
5 Apr 20240.66ฯƒ
12 Apr 20240.79ฯƒ
19 Apr 20240.89ฯƒ
26 Apr 20240.88ฯƒ
3 May 20240.87ฯƒ
10 May 20240.63ฯƒ
17 May 20240.80ฯƒ
24 May 20240.60ฯƒ
31 May 20240.67ฯƒ
7 Jun 20240.70ฯƒ
14 Jun 20240.65ฯƒ
21 Jun 20240.86ฯƒ
28 Jun 20241.06ฯƒ
5 Jul 20241.03ฯƒ
12 Jul 20241.20ฯƒ
19 Jul 20241.14ฯƒ
26 Jul 20241.05ฯƒ
2 Aug 20241.09ฯƒ
9 Aug 20240.62ฯƒ
16 Aug 20240.59ฯƒ
23 Aug 20240.78ฯƒ
30 Aug 20240.66ฯƒ
6 Sep 20240.52ฯƒ
13 Sep 20240.40ฯƒ
20 Sep 20240.22ฯƒ
27 Sep 20240.23ฯƒ
4 Oct 20240.00ฯƒ
11 Oct 20240.15ฯƒ
18 Oct 20240.24ฯƒ
25 Oct 20240.15ฯƒ
1 Nov 20240.16ฯƒ
8 Nov 20240.24ฯƒ
15 Nov 20240.24ฯƒ
22 Nov 20240.31ฯƒ
29 Nov 20240.31ฯƒ
6 Dec 20240.22ฯƒ
13 Dec 20240.23ฯƒ
20 Dec 20240.29ฯƒ
27 Dec 20240.34ฯƒ
3 Jan 20250.15ฯƒ
10 Jan 2025-0.01ฯƒ
17 Jan 20250.23ฯƒ
24 Jan 20250.31ฯƒ
31 Jan 20250.21ฯƒ
7 Feb 20250.28ฯƒ
14 Feb 20250.00ฯƒ
21 Feb 20250.07ฯƒ
28 Feb 20250.27ฯƒ
7 Mar 20250.49ฯƒ
14 Mar 20250.44ฯƒ
21 Mar 20250.40ฯƒ
28 Mar 20250.52ฯƒ
4 Apr 20250.88ฯƒ
11 Apr 20250.97ฯƒ
18 Apr 20251.12ฯƒ
25 Apr 20251.06ฯƒ
2 May 20250.91ฯƒ
9 May 20250.48ฯƒ
16 May 20250.51ฯƒ
23 May 20250.80ฯƒ
30 May 20250.83ฯƒ
6 Jun 20250.89ฯƒ
13 Jun 20250.45ฯƒ
20 Jun 20250.44ฯƒ
27 Jun 20250.38ฯƒ
4 Jul 20250.38ฯƒ
11 Jul 20250.78ฯƒ
18 Jul 20250.60ฯƒ
25 Jul 20250.57ฯƒ
1 Aug 20250.79ฯƒ
8 Aug 2025-0.14ฯƒ
15 Aug 20250.04ฯƒ
22 Aug 20250.20ฯƒ
29 Aug 20250.20ฯƒ
5 Sep 20250.11ฯƒ
12 Sep 20250.01ฯƒ
19 Sep 2025-0.26ฯƒ
26 Sep 2025-0.47ฯƒ
3 Oct 2025-0.41ฯƒ
10 Oct 2025-0.24ฯƒ
17 Oct 2025-0.35ฯƒ
24 Oct 2025-0.64ฯƒ
31 Oct 2025-0.58ฯƒ
7 Nov 2025-0.77ฯƒ
14 Nov 2025-1.14ฯƒ
21 Nov 2025-1.32ฯƒ
28 Nov 2025-1.40ฯƒ
5 Dec 2025-1.53ฯƒ
12 Dec 2025-1.62ฯƒ
19 Dec 2025-1.48ฯƒ
26 Dec 2025-1.51ฯƒ
2 Jan 2026-1.69ฯƒ
9 Jan 2026-1.63ฯƒ
16 Jan 2026-1.32ฯƒ
23 Jan 2026-1.27ฯƒ
30 Jan 2026-1.24ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-1.63ฯƒ
13 Feb 2026-1.39ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-1.44ฯƒ
27 Feb 2026-1.35ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-1.58ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-1.75ฯƒ
20 Mar 2026-1.60ฯƒ
27 Mar 2026-1.44ฯƒ
3 Apr 2026-1.46ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-1.54ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-1.50ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-1.48ฯƒ
1 May 2026-1.59ฯƒ
8 May 2026-1.80ฯƒ
15 May 2026-2.97ฯƒ
22 May 2026-2.54ฯƒ
29 May 2026-2.62ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-2.16ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-1.51ฯƒ
19 Jun 2026-1.51ฯƒ
26 Jun 2026-0.80ฯƒ
3 Jul 2026-0.77ฯƒ
10 Jul 2026-0.82ฯƒ
17 Jul 2026-0.53ฯƒ
24 Jul 2026-0.85ฯƒ
31 Jul 2026-0.93ฯƒ
7 Aug 2026-0.81ฯƒ
14 Aug 2026-0.79ฯƒ
21 Aug 2026-0.63ฯƒ
28 Aug 2026-0.65ฯƒ
4 Sep 2026-0.67ฯƒ
11 Sep 2026-0.88ฯƒ
18 Sep 2026-0.83ฯƒ
Price paths ยท first shared close = 100

Which security created the gap?

EPC 78.04SPB 117.71
Which security created the gap?Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions. 40.060.080.0100.0120.0 Sep 2023Jun 2024Mar 2025Dec 2025Sep 2026

Both price paths begin at 100. Their raw returns and the fitted relationship gap answer different questions.

View chart values ยท 156 observations
DateEPCSPB
29 Sep 2023100.00100.00
6 Oct 202396.1396.59
13 Oct 202394.0295.83
20 Oct 202394.7297.00
27 Oct 202392.7896.04
3 Nov 202397.8998.81
10 Nov 202392.5999.22
17 Nov 202394.9786.56
24 Nov 202395.2784.53
1 Dec 202394.8991.37
8 Dec 202394.7395.39
15 Dec 202397.15102.01
22 Dec 202399.52104.09
29 Dec 202399.54102.44
5 Jan 202496.7297.92
12 Jan 2024102.7599.93
19 Jan 2024101.91100.17
26 Jan 2024102.53103.44
2 Feb 2024101.39101.26
9 Feb 2024107.21110.26
16 Feb 2024103.67108.01
23 Feb 2024105.11102.69
1 Mar 2024103.40102.55
8 Mar 2024104.91107.77
15 Mar 2024101.66107.35
22 Mar 2024102.62110.68
29 Mar 2024105.43114.88
5 Apr 202499.40108.94
12 Apr 202497.65103.34
19 Apr 2024100.00103.73
26 Apr 2024102.12106.57
3 May 2024103.19107.99
10 May 2024109.05122.35
17 May 2024110.17118.81
24 May 2024106.27119.70
31 May 2024105.26116.35
7 Jun 2024106.49117.11
14 Jun 2024105.15116.67
21 Jun 2024109.04115.80
28 Jun 2024110.08111.41
5 Jul 2024107.34108.81
12 Jul 2024110.16107.84
19 Jul 2024110.38109.46
26 Jul 2024109.99111.50
2 Aug 2024107.34107.35
9 Aug 2024102.35113.86
16 Aug 2024104.95118.08
23 Aug 2024109.88118.98
30 Aug 2024110.16122.84
6 Sep 2024104.80119.92
13 Sep 2024103.04120.96
20 Sep 202499.74121.81
27 Sep 2024100.29122.15
4 Oct 202494.54120.56
11 Oct 202495.81117.99
18 Oct 202498.31119.14
25 Oct 202494.85116.59
1 Nov 202496.41118.70
8 Nov 202499.41120.62
15 Nov 202495.48114.89
22 Nov 202498.89117.80
29 Nov 2024100.56120.37
6 Dec 2024101.43124.20
13 Dec 202497.62118.44
20 Dec 202494.17111.83
27 Dec 202494.12110.29
3 Jan 202590.17109.92
10 Jan 202587.00109.41
17 Jan 202593.07111.96
24 Jan 202593.35109.99
31 Jan 202591.91110.69
7 Feb 202587.22102.26
14 Feb 202582.20102.14
21 Feb 202584.87104.32
28 Feb 202586.86101.98
7 Mar 202588.6499.07
14 Mar 202584.1794.37
21 Mar 202581.5791.75
28 Mar 202585.0193.52
4 Apr 202582.2982.33
11 Apr 202582.6881.14
18 Apr 202583.3178.76
25 Apr 202585.4882.58
2 May 202584.7884.83
9 May 202575.0281.46
16 May 202579.2786.21
23 May 202575.9976.52
30 May 202576.6076.69
6 Jun 202575.4774.14
13 Jun 202564.5968.67
20 Jun 202564.7869.16
27 Jun 202564.8470.16
4 Jul 202568.6675.11
11 Jul 202575.5876.42
18 Jul 202571.2874.43
25 Jul 202575.3080.01
1 Aug 202570.1769.73
8 Aug 202561.4474.78
15 Aug 202563.9575.14
22 Aug 202566.8276.09
29 Aug 202566.9976.29
5 Sep 202565.6776.15
12 Sep 202560.9371.43
19 Sep 202557.0370.47
26 Sep 202555.4071.76
3 Oct 202557.3773.64
10 Oct 202555.1567.40
17 Oct 202556.8671.90
24 Oct 202555.2674.57
31 Oct 202554.4272.13
7 Nov 202552.5772.53
14 Nov 202550.8876.47
21 Nov 202549.2076.82
28 Nov 202550.1380.11
5 Dec 202547.3777.19
12 Dec 202549.2782.78
19 Dec 202549.6180.63
26 Dec 202549.4981.06
2 Jan 202647.7481.04
9 Jan 202651.5387.39
16 Jan 202652.8683.59
23 Jan 202655.3887.30
30 Jan 202655.1085.99
6 Feb 202658.75102.20
13 Feb 202661.98102.77
20 Feb 202664.33108.80
27 Feb 202664.39106.43
6 Mar 202660.25103.92
13 Mar 202656.35100.11
20 Mar 202655.4194.70
27 Mar 202659.9499.94
3 Apr 202659.83100.11
10 Apr 202662.42107.33
17 Apr 202666.73115.03
24 Apr 202666.76114.55
1 May 202664.33112.65
8 May 202660.60110.63
15 May 202645.43104.67
22 May 202650.36106.39
29 May 202649.96107.49
5 Jun 202656.66111.40
12 Jun 202665.87113.79
19 Jun 202666.36114.70
26 Jun 202679.59119.51
3 Jul 202678.13116.10
10 Jul 202676.03113.80
17 Jul 202685.16121.15
24 Jul 202679.34120.68
31 Jul 202678.07120.62
7 Aug 202681.04122.47
14 Aug 202681.15122.20
21 Aug 202681.58118.10
28 Aug 202682.95121.14
4 Sep 202682.44120.89
11 Sep 202677.33117.78
18 Sep 202678.04117.71
Completed daily timing

Is the gap closing yet?

EPC / SPB gap 2.15ฯƒ
Is the gap closing yet?Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, EPC is extended relative to SPB; below zero, EPC is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap. -2.0ฯƒ0.0ฯƒ2.0ฯƒ Jan 2026Mar 2026Jun 2026Aug 2026Oct 2026

Daily observations use the weekly fit. A narrowing gap needs support from the weekly case and can reverse. Above zero, EPC is extended relative to SPB; below zero, EPC is depressed. Movement toward zero narrows the gap.

View chart values ยท 180 observations
DateEPC / SPB gap
22 Jan 20261.28ฯƒ
23 Jan 20261.49ฯƒ
26 Jan 20261.38ฯƒ
27 Jan 20261.21ฯƒ
28 Jan 20261.55ฯƒ
29 Jan 20261.36ฯƒ
30 Jan 20261.66ฯƒ
2 Feb 20261.29ฯƒ
3 Feb 20261.11ฯƒ
4 Feb 20261.10ฯƒ
5 Feb 2026-0.23ฯƒ
6 Feb 2026-0.16ฯƒ
9 Feb 2026-0.31ฯƒ
10 Feb 2026-0.05ฯƒ
11 Feb 2026-0.02ฯƒ
12 Feb 20260.08ฯƒ
13 Feb 20260.26ฯƒ
17 Feb 20260.03ฯƒ
18 Feb 2026-0.14ฯƒ
19 Feb 2026-0.09ฯƒ
20 Feb 2026-0.20ฯƒ
23 Feb 2026-0.14ฯƒ
24 Feb 20260.08ฯƒ
25 Feb 20260.13ฯƒ
26 Feb 20260.17ฯƒ
27 Feb 20260.12ฯƒ
2 Mar 2026-0.15ฯƒ
3 Mar 2026-0.34ฯƒ
4 Mar 2026-0.20ฯƒ
5 Mar 2026-0.18ฯƒ
6 Mar 2026-0.16ฯƒ
9 Mar 2026-0.17ฯƒ
10 Mar 2026-0.21ฯƒ
11 Mar 2026-0.77ฯƒ
12 Mar 2026-0.93ฯƒ
13 Mar 2026-0.26ฯƒ
16 Mar 2026-0.13ฯƒ
17 Mar 2026-0.21ฯƒ
18 Mar 20260.03ฯƒ
19 Mar 20260.04ฯƒ
20 Mar 20260.36ฯƒ
23 Mar 2026-0.16ฯƒ
24 Mar 2026-0.43ฯƒ
25 Mar 2026-0.42ฯƒ
26 Mar 2026-0.01ฯƒ
27 Mar 20260.33ฯƒ
30 Mar 20260.50ฯƒ
31 Mar 20260.46ฯƒ
1 Apr 20260.33ฯƒ
2 Apr 20260.29ฯƒ
6 Apr 2026-0.09ฯƒ
7 Apr 2026-0.26ฯƒ
8 Apr 2026-0.36ฯƒ
9 Apr 2026-0.30ฯƒ
10 Apr 2026-0.29ฯƒ
13 Apr 2026-0.13ฯƒ
14 Apr 2026-0.27ฯƒ
15 Apr 2026-0.15ฯƒ
16 Apr 2026-0.42ฯƒ
17 Apr 2026-0.64ฯƒ
20 Apr 2026-0.68ฯƒ
21 Apr 2026-0.43ฯƒ
22 Apr 2026-0.60ฯƒ
23 Apr 2026-0.44ฯƒ
24 Apr 2026-0.57ฯƒ
27 Apr 2026-0.59ฯƒ
28 Apr 2026-0.57ฯƒ
29 Apr 2026-0.77ฯƒ
30 Apr 2026-0.63ฯƒ
1 May 2026-0.68ฯƒ
4 May 2026-0.57ฯƒ
5 May 2026-0.47ฯƒ
6 May 2026-1.10ฯƒ
7 May 2026-0.32ฯƒ
8 May 2026-0.98ฯƒ
11 May 2026-1.29ฯƒ
12 May 2026-1.75ฯƒ
13 May 2026-2.07ฯƒ
14 May 2026-2.99ฯƒ
15 May 2026-2.88ฯƒ
18 May 2026-2.76ฯƒ
19 May 2026-2.08ฯƒ
20 May 2026-1.84ฯƒ
21 May 2026-1.79ฯƒ
22 May 2026-2.16ฯƒ
26 May 2026-2.37ฯƒ
27 May 2026-2.03ฯƒ
28 May 2026-2.38ฯƒ
29 May 2026-2.37ฯƒ
1 Jun 2026-2.06ฯƒ
2 Jun 2026-2.00ฯƒ
3 Jun 2026-2.02ฯƒ
4 Jun 2026-1.78ฯƒ
5 Jun 2026-1.71ฯƒ
8 Jun 2026-1.49ฯƒ
9 Jun 2026-1.51ฯƒ
10 Jun 2026-0.81ฯƒ
11 Jun 2026-1.23ฯƒ
12 Jun 2026-0.60ฯƒ
15 Jun 2026-0.79ฯƒ
16 Jun 2026-0.84ฯƒ
17 Jun 2026-0.29ฯƒ
18 Jun 2026-0.65ฯƒ
22 Jun 2026-0.69ฯƒ
23 Jun 20260.61ฯƒ
24 Jun 20260.28ฯƒ
25 Jun 2026-0.06ฯƒ
26 Jun 20260.47ฯƒ
29 Jun 20260.82ฯƒ
30 Jun 20260.46ฯƒ
1 Jul 20260.61ฯƒ
2 Jul 20260.70ฯƒ
6 Jul 20260.77ฯƒ
7 Jul 20260.76ฯƒ
8 Jul 20260.85ฯƒ
9 Jul 20260.42ฯƒ
10 Jul 20260.73ฯƒ
13 Jul 20260.76ฯƒ
14 Jul 20260.93ฯƒ
15 Jul 20260.48ฯƒ
16 Jul 20260.61ฯƒ
17 Jul 20260.90ฯƒ
20 Jul 20260.60ฯƒ
21 Jul 20260.26ฯƒ
22 Jul 20260.20ฯƒ
23 Jul 20260.13ฯƒ
24 Jul 20260.23ฯƒ
27 Jul 20260.29ฯƒ
28 Jul 20260.17ฯƒ
29 Jul 20260.51ฯƒ
30 Jul 20260.11ฯƒ
31 Jul 20260.09ฯƒ
3 Aug 20260.20ฯƒ
4 Aug 20260.19ฯƒ
5 Aug 20260.48ฯƒ
6 Aug 20260.48ฯƒ
7 Aug 20260.27ฯƒ
10 Aug 20260.50ฯƒ
11 Aug 20260.77ฯƒ
12 Aug 20260.70ฯƒ
13 Aug 20260.29ฯƒ
14 Aug 20260.39ฯƒ
17 Aug 20260.60ฯƒ
18 Aug 20260.70ฯƒ
19 Aug 20260.67ฯƒ
20 Aug 20260.70ฯƒ
21 Aug 20260.92ฯƒ
24 Aug 20260.62ฯƒ
25 Aug 20260.64ฯƒ
26 Aug 20260.50ฯƒ
27 Aug 20260.57ฯƒ
28 Aug 20260.66ฯƒ
31 Aug 20260.94ฯƒ
1 Sep 20260.72ฯƒ
2 Sep 20260.36ฯƒ
3 Sep 20260.53ฯƒ
4 Sep 20260.63ฯƒ
8 Sep 20260.42ฯƒ
9 Sep 20260.55ฯƒ
10 Sep 20260.48ฯƒ
11 Sep 20260.40ฯƒ
14 Sep 20260.45ฯƒ
15 Sep 20260.39ฯƒ
16 Sep 20260.30ฯƒ
17 Sep 20260.40ฯƒ
18 Sep 20260.50ฯƒ
21 Sep 20260.62ฯƒ
22 Sep 20260.46ฯƒ
23 Sep 20260.41ฯƒ
24 Sep 20260.78ฯƒ
25 Sep 20260.92ฯƒ
28 Sep 20261.42ฯƒ
29 Sep 20261.53ฯƒ
30 Sep 20261.55ฯƒ
1 Oct 20261.46ฯƒ
2 Oct 20261.76ฯƒ
5 Oct 20262.11ฯƒ
6 Oct 20262.01ฯƒ
7 Oct 20262.18ฯƒ
8 Oct 20262.15ฯƒ
Separate the two contributions

What actually drove the recent move?

The depressed leg can recover, the extended leg can weaken, or both can move together at different speeds.

Completed windowEPCDepressed legSPBExtended legReturn differenceEPC less SPB
1 week2026-09-11 โ†’ 2026-09-180.9%-0.1%1.0 pp
4 weeks2026-08-21 โ†’ 2026-09-18-4.3%-0.3%-4.0 pp
13 weeks2026-06-19 โ†’ 2026-09-1817.6%2.6%15.0 pp

Observed price returns over shared weekly dates. Percentage-point differences use equal weights; they are not the fitted spread or a trading return.

Specific pair playbook

What is the play in EPC / SPB?

Use the current conditions as checkpoints. A strong historical relationship and a wide gap can still lack a supported entry case.

Watchlist pair - not triggered

Possible future structure: long EPC / short SPB

The proposed pair would look for EPC to outperform SPB, but the current evidence does not yet justify treating the gap as a convergence trade.

01 ยท Relationship45/100

Stability 92/100 ยท break risk 52/100

02 ยท Separation0.83ฯƒ

Distance from the historical centre, not a price target.

03 ยท Supporting evidence52/100

Direction and supporting research compared across both securities.

04 ยท Daily turnGap extending

Through 08 Oct 2026

What would confirm it?

The next useful observation

The cleaner confirmation is a narrowing spread led by weakness in the extended leg rather than strength in both securities.

Wait for a completed daily turn toward normal and fresh evidence that EPC is improving relative to SPB. The size of the gap alone is not the trigger.

What keeps it valid?

Follow both sides of the pair

If the daily gap keeps widening, leave the pair alone rather than averaging into the separation.

A favourable relative move means EPC rises more than SPB, falls less than SPB, or rises while SPB falls. If SPB outperforms EPC, the pair moves against the case.

What would cancel it?

Recognise a changing relationship

A fresh strengthening in the extended leg can prolong the separation and increase short-side risk.

Do not use the pair if the completed gap keeps widening, EPC continues to weaken relative to SPB, or the relationship moves into a break state.

Possible setup paths ยท How the relative-value idea could be expressed
Two-leg convergence structure

Long EPC / short SPB

Treat both legs as one relative position. The setup looks for EPC to outperform SPB; EPC can rise faster, fall less, or rise while SPB falls. The pair loses ground when SPB outperforms EPC.

When it becomes relevant This is a structure to study only after the current course changes from โ€œWait for the daily turnโ€ to confirmed convergence. The clearest next checkpoint is a sustained turn from a stable or extending daily gap to a narrowing one.

Principal risk Requires a live review of both legs, borrow availability and cost, event dates, liquidity and the research normalisation.

Depressed-leg recovery study

Study EPC alone if its own evidence confirms

This simpler expression focuses on recovery in EPC. It avoids short-borrow mechanics, but it no longer isolates relative value: the result is exposed to the broad market, the sector and EPC-specific news.

When it becomes relevant A stronger case needs improving EPC price structure and supporting evidence, not just a wide relationship gap.

Principal risk Carries full single-security and broad-market direction risk.

Extended-leg rollover study

Study SPB alone if its support continues to weaken

This expression focuses on weakness in SPB. It may fit a leader-rollover case, but it also abandons the relative hedge and adds direct market direction, squeeze and company-event risk.

When it becomes relevant Weakening in SPB must be visible in its own completed evidence; relative extension alone is not enough.

Principal risk Short selling can involve unlimited loss, borrow fees, recalls and forced close-outs.

Explore possibilities ยท fixed weekly relationship

Different price moves. Different outcomes for the gap.

Test hypothetical moves from the published weekly close. The result shows distance from the fitted centre; it is not a forecast, position size or profit estimate.

0.67ฯƒ from the centre

Example: EPC +5%, SPB +2%.

The same percentage move in both names does not necessarily leave the fitted gap unchanged: their historical sensitivity is 0.842, relative to the depressed leg.

Compare the examples
ScenarioEPCSPBNew gap
Both rise5%2%0.67ฯƒ
Both fall-2%-5%0.72ฯƒ
Move in opposite directions3%-3%0.56ฯƒ
The gap works against you-3%3%1.10ฯƒ
Current distance: 0.83ฯƒ. Examples use the same fixed fit as the calculator.
How the scenario is calculated

Keep the published weekly fit and its historical spread variation fixed. The change is log(1 + depressed-leg return) minus 0.842 ร— log(1 + extended-leg return), expressed in standard deviations. Returns enter as decimals. If the depressed leg is the modelโ€™s second security, both the coefficient and spread scale are inverted consistently.

Starting point: 18 Sep 2026. The calculation does not refit the relationship, forecast how either security moves or include fees, dividends or borrow costs. A result beyond the centre can become a new gap on the opposite side.

Supporting research for both securities

Check the story behind the separation

The comparison below is saved with the weekly pair edition. Linked apps may have newer readings; compare their dates before combining evidence.

Evidence now
  • SPB Market Dynamics is weakening.
What can overwhelm the relationship?
  • SPB has a stored short-interest crowding or squeeze warning.
  • Borrow availability, borrow cost and locate status are not stored and must be checked before any short sale.
  • Pair relationships can break after company-specific news, earnings, capital actions or a structural industry change.
Fitted sensitivity

0.842ร—

A 1% move in SPB is associated with approximately 0.842% in EPC in the historical log-price fit.

This coefficient is not a share ratio or a position-size instruction. The displayed hedge ratio is a research normalisation, not a position-size instruction. Live borrow and transaction costs are outside the stored evidence set.

Relationship diagnostics

Why this pair is on the map

Separate how well the relationship fits the past from what happened in later, held-out observations.

Return co-movement0.51

Correlation of completed weekly returns.

Historical stability92/100

Consistency across earlier and later parts of the sample.

Estimated half-life25.9 weeks

Estimated time to halve a deviation under the fitted model, not a deadline.

Centre crossings7

Observed crossings in 156 completed weeks.

Tradability context66/100

Stored price, size and volume; no live short-borrow information.

Held-out resolution 0 / 3

Historical separations returned near the centre

Non-overlapping cases measured using a relationship fitted on earlier data. Small sample: 3 cases. These outcomes are descriptive, not a future probability or a trading backtest.

Observed resolution rate
0.0%
Median time among resolved cases
Not observed
Largest further extension
4.50ฯƒ
State history ยท what changed and when
Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-09-21.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-09-18.

Relationship discovered

Published as Leader rollover after the completed 2026-09-18 observation.

Relationship retired

Removed from the current map because the relationship no longer passed the publication checks.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap extending through 2026-08-20.

Daily timing changed

Completed daily timing changed to gap stable through 2026-08-17.

Relationship discovered

Published as Unconfirmed stretch after the completed 2026-08-14 observation.

Same-industry comparisons

Put this pair beside its peers

Measure guide

Weekly separation

How far the latest completed weekly relationship sits from its own historical centre.

A larger reading means the two securities are unusually far apart relative to this relationship's completed history. It identifies a dislocation; it does not, by itself, predict convergence.
Measure guide

Daily timing

The direction of the gap across the latest completed daily sessions.

Narrowing means the daily gap has begun to close, extending means it has widened, and stable means the change is not yet material. The weekly relationship remains the primary research clock.
Measure guide

Relationship quality

A public summary of how dependable the completed historical relationship has been.

It brings together repeatability, stability and later-sample behaviour. Higher is stronger, but no score guarantees that a historical relationship will continue.
Measure guide

Evidence alignment

Whether the wider stored evidence supports the depressed leg relative to the extended leg.

The comparison uses published price structure and supporting research for both securities. Higher alignment means more of that evidence points in the same relative direction; construction weights are not disclosed.
Measure guide

Stability

How consistently the relationship held across earlier and later completed observations.

Higher stability means the relationship changed less across the sample. It is a durability check, not a forecast or a guarantee of mean reversion.
Measure guide

Break risk

The risk that the earlier relationship is no longer a dependable reference point.

Lower is better. A high reading warns that the separation may reflect new information or a structural change rather than a temporary gap.
Measure guide

Fitted price sensitivity

The coefficient in the historical log-price relationship, not a number of shares.

The fit compares log price A with a constant plus this coefficient times log price B. For small percentage moves, it describes how much A historically moved with a 1% move in B. It is not a position-size instruction or a hedge in shares; portfolio value, live borrow, costs and risk limits are separate.
Measure guide

Held-out resolution

How often earlier measured separations later moved back near their fitted centre.

Each historical check is fitted only on information that came before it. The result is descriptive evidence from this relationship's history, not an expected return or future probability.

Evidence context