Weekly Chart PackCompleted weekly market data · Independent research
NYSE · Equity · United States
AMTB
Amerant Bancorp Inc.
Financial ServicesBanks - Regional
Amerant Bancorp Inc. is the banking holding company for Amerant Bank, NA that provides banking products and services to individuals and businesses in the United States and internationally. The company is headquartered in Coral Gables, Florida.
Last updated
9 Oct 2026
Exchange
NYSE · NYSE
Sector
Financial Services
Industry
Banks - Regional
Currency
USD
Market capitalisation
1,124,357,047
Fair value reference
21.50
Next-week expectancy
Undecided · 48.81%
Executive chart read
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-10-09, AMTB rose 1.26%, moving from 28.41 to 28.77. The latest weekly close is above the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is active on the latest week and was active in 12 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is 13.75 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is 0.50 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 48.81% based on similar historical setup states.
Week Ending
9 Oct 2026
Latest Close
28.77
12-Week Change
1.26%
Trend Signal
Active
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 48.81%
Signal Weeks
12 of 12
Chart views
Completed weekly prices · Select a view to explore the evidence.
Weekly Trend
All chart layers are hidden. Open Chart options to select a layer or choose Reset.
Weekly Close
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity LinesDirection Line
Analysis panels
Choose up to 6 panels. Drag panel headers to reorder.
Price Sponsorship Indicator
What it is
Price Sponsorship Indicator PSI
PSI compares the weekly price move with the market activity behind it. It shows whether price has broad support or whether that support is weakening.
Move across either panel to inspect a week
PricePositive trendNegative trendPossible changeStrong supportPositive supportWeak support
What it shows
Price and the support behind it
Price above, support below. Both panels follow the same completed weeks. Use the controls to show or hide trend segments and support averages.
Current completed-week read · 2026-10-09
Price rise holding up
Price is holding up even though recent activity is lighter. The green bars show whether this support is holding or fading.
PSI score
64/1003 completed weeks
Recent support
+34Building
Readings pointing the same way
50%Little clear activity
01Support buildsGreen bars rise above zero.
02Price confirmsPrice rises with positive bars.
03Support holdsPositive bars remain with price.
04WarningBars weaken before or with price.
What it shows
Is this move specific to the ticker or shared by the market?
This compares the ticker's PSI reading with how widely stocks on its exchange are moving together. It does not change PSI.
Stocks moving together35/100
Moving together · more together
Ticker and market
Ticker support is not relying on the whole market
PSI is positive while the wider market is not moving as one.
PSI
+28.0
Market togetherness
35/100
Ticker supported, market mixed
Positive PSI without a strong shared market move.
Current contextTicker supported, market moving together
Positive PSI within a strong shared market move.
Ticker weak, market mixed
Weak PSI without matching broad market weakness.
Ticker weak, broad market weak
Weak PSI within a strong shared market decline.
Second check
Does Market Dynamics agree?
PSI shows support for the price move. Market Dynamics provides a separate check on whether conditions beneath price point the same way.
What it shows
Both readings are positive
PSI and Market Dynamics point in the same positive direction.
Current reading
+0.50
Four-week change
-0.70
Sharemaestro · AMTB · Weekly price reversals
RMI Reversal Map Indicator
See where price breaks a previous high or low, turns back, and confirms a change in direction.
○ Broke a prior high / low◇ Closed back across the level▲ / ▼ Reversal confirmed– – Confirmation level— Average price since the sweep (VWAP)
Observed follow-through
What happened after confirmation?
Direction-adjusted price moves from the next weekly open. Only outcomes completed by the replay date are included. Before costs; no exit rules applied. Overlapping observations are not independent trades or a forecast.
Dated observations
Setup journal
Reading the chart
The chart opens on the latest 152 weeks. Choose 52 or 104 weeks for a closer view. Only confirmed reversals are shown. Clear confirmations is the stricter starting view; All confirmations also includes reversals that did not meet every strength check. Green marks a confirmed turn up; red marks a confirmed turn down. Dashed outlines mark historical setups. A zone marks where the reversal developed; its end does not mean the whole price move ended. Select a journal entry to review a past setup, or use the replay slider to see what was known at an earlier close.
Annotations adds dates and explanations for every visible zone. A separate Follow-up complete marker shows when eight weeks of tracking finished. The price move may continue beyond it. The numbered notes below the chart also let you select a zone to inspect it. Confirmed reversals can fail; failed setups stay in the history. Follow-through figures describe past price moves before costs; they are not a forecast or trading record.
Results use completed weekly prices. Missing or revised source data can affect the saved history.
Adaptive Price Envelope
Price, volatility and confirmation
Adaptive Price Envelope APE
See where price sits inside boundaries that adjust to completed-week direction and volatility, then check whether the wider evidence confirms the move.
The envelope places current price in context without treating a single band touch as a signal. Direction, persistence and the evidence checks below determine the quality of the read.
Position
63%Above the adaptive centre
Pressure
+19Balanced
Confirmation
70%Broad confirmation
Underlying support
Market Dynamics context
Use the envelope for price location and Market Dynamics to see whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.
Supportive Market DynamicsCautious Market DynamicsNeutral line
APE and support read
Market Dynamics supports the upper-envelope position
Underlying support is positive while price is on the upper side of APE. Persistence in both readings would strengthen the completed-week trend evidence.
Current reading
+0.50
Four-week change
-0.70
Current path
Weakening
Confirmation checks
What supports or challenges the current read
A band touch is context, not a conclusion. These independent checks show whether the completed-week move has broader support.
Envelope pathSupportive63% of the envelope
Price location and the direction of the adaptive centre are read together.
Trend LineSupportiveAbove and rising
Checks whether completed-week price and the primary trend are moving in the same direction.
Market DynamicsMixed+0.50 · -0.70 over 4 weeks
Tests whether support beneath price is strengthening or weakening.
Relative strengthMixed+13.7 · -7.2 over 4 weeks
Shows whether the listing is strengthening or weakening against its stored comparison benchmark.
ParticipationMixed0.82× recent volume
Checks whether the current move is attracting more participation than recent completed weeks.
Completed-week analysis
How to interpret this envelope now
Price position
Above the adaptive centre
The latest close sits at 63% of the current lower-to-upper envelope span and has held this state for 1 completed week.
Envelope width
Envelope width is typical
Current width ranks at the 53th percentile of the recent completed-week history. Compression can precede expansion but does not determine direction.
Evidence agreement
Broad confirmation
70% of the available trend, support, relative-strength and participation checks agree with or do not contradict the current envelope pressure.
What to watch next
Persistence, repair or rejection
Watch completed closes around the adaptive centre (26.33), upper boundary (31.06) and lower boundary (24.86).
Recent completed events
What changed around the envelope
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Compression release
The envelope began expanding after an unusually compressed period.
Upper-envelope break
Price closed above the adaptive upper boundary.
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Upper-envelope break
Price closed above the adaptive upper boundary.
Upper re-entry
Price moved back inside the envelope after an upper break.
Auction Intelligence
Sharemaestro market acceptance
Auction Intelligence
Where the market has accepted value, how that value is moving, and which price pathways remain structurally open.
The auction map
Price path and acceptance geometry
Price shows the journey; the profile shows where that journey developed durable market memory.
Value migration39.9%
Recent centre versus prior year
Value breadth40.7%
Width of the accepted-value range
Supporting evidence
Acceptance migration and auction runway
Rolling market memory and the nearest established acceptance above and below the current price.
Is market memory moving?
Accepted-value migration
Each column is a rolling one-year auction. Brighter areas show stronger price acceptance.
Where is the next market memory?
Auction runway
The next established shelf is materially farther below than above.
Above29.09Established market memory sits 1.1% above the latest close.
Below22.49Established market memory sits 21.8% below the latest close.
Decision map
What would confirm or challenge the current interpretation?
Sustained weekly closes above23.90
Higher-value acceptance
Holding above this boundary while the acceptance centre rises would strengthen the higher-value interpretation.
Primary market-memory magnet20.92
Rotation toward value
This is the centre of the three-year auction and the principal reference if price rotates back through value.
Sustained weekly closes below16.99
Lower-value acceptance
Holding below this boundary while the acceptance centre falls would strengthen the lower-value interpretation.
Decision context
Structural references and cross-signal agreement
The closest market-memory levels, the evidence that agrees or disagrees, and the limits of the current interpretation.
Market memory
Nearest structural nodes
These are historical acceptance references, not live resting orders.
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
29.09
1.1%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
22.49
-21.8%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
20.92
-27.3%
Acceptance shelfRepeated historical activity makes this a market-memory shelf.
17.15
-40.4%
Cross-signal agreement
Does the wider Sharemaestro picture agree?
Agreement strengthens context; disagreement identifies where the thesis is vulnerable.
Auction locationShows where the latest close sits relative to established accepted value.Above accepted value
Accepted-value migrationCompares the recent acceptance centre with the preceding one-year auction.Higher
30-week trendThe latest close is 11.9% above the trend line.Price above
Fair-value positionMarket price is 33.8% above the current fair-value reference.Above
Point & Figure structureConfirms whether reversal structure agrees with the current auction direction.Supply column falling
Earnings repricingShows whether accepted market value is developing with or against the earnings relationship.Expectations ahead
Higher value accepted
The recent auction has built a higher acceptance centre and price is currently above established three-year value.
More room below
The next established shelf is materially farther below than above.
Established market memory
The three-year acceptance centre at 20.92 remains the dominant rotational reference.
Security-specific analogues
How comparable auction states resolved
Fewer than four non-overlapping comparable episodes exist in the visible history.
1 comparable non-overlapping episodes are visible; at least four are required before outcomes are summarised.
Price Action
Completed weekly market tape
Price Action
A deep view of how price is behaving against its own completed history, trend, structural levels and participation.
Price, structure and participation
Where price advanced, failed, reclaimed or lost important ground
Candles preserve the completed weekly tape. Selected annotations identify meaningful finished events and point directly to the week concerned.
Up weekDown weekTrend referenceCompleted supportCompleted resistanceVolumeTypical volumePublished event
Current weekly interpretationRange-bound structure with negative but contained
Recent completed price swings are mixed, with neither side establishing a clean sequence. Price is above its completed-week trend reference and that reference is rising.
Full context · Unstable
Current structureRange-bound structure
Recent completed price swings are mixed, with neither side establishing a clean sequence.
Trend relationshipAbove a rising trend
Price is above its completed-week trend reference and that reference is rising.
Support and resistanceSupport 19.87 · Resistance 29.18
Nearest completed structural references around the latest close.
Participation qualityNormal participation
Participation was broadly consistent with the market's completed recent history.
What happened this week?
The latest completed candle
The latest week is separated into price change, candle character, closing position and path quality.
Weekly move-2.67%
Latest close versus the preceding completed close.
Candle characterNegative but contained
Price declined, although selling did not fully control the completed weekly range.
Where the week closedLower part of the range
The close finished at 40% of the completed weekly range.
Path qualityUnstable
Frequent recent changes in direction reduce confidence in the current price path.
Current evaluation
What the weekly tape says now
The interpretation combines completed price structure, trend relationship, participation and path quality.
What supports it
Recent completed price swings are mixed, with neither side establishing a clean sequence.
What would improve it
A sustained close above the nearest completed resistance, supported by firmer participation, would improve confirmation.
What could weaken it
A sustained loss of the nearest completed support would materially weaken the current price structure.
What to watch next
Trend relationship is above a rising trend; participation is normal participation, and path quality is unstable.
Statistical perspective
Where the latest close sits in its own completed history
These observations describe the available record. They are market context, not predictions of the next move.
Position in completed history82% of range
The latest close's location between the lowest and highest completed closes available for this market.
Distance from completed high-13.1%
How far the latest close sits below the highest completed close in the available history.
Recovery from completed low+212.0%
How far the latest close has advanced from the lowest completed close in the available history.
Latest move versus typical1.0× typical
The absolute latest weekly move compared with completed weekly moves available before it.
Completed event history
What changed, and when
Only selected completed events are shown. Each annotation is descriptive, not a standalone instruction.
Upside structure cleared
The weekly close moved above the preceding completed price structure.
10 weeks ago
High-participation reversal
Price changed weekly direction with elevated participation.
15 weeks ago
Trend reclaimed
The weekly close moved back above the completed trend reference.
45 weeks ago
Range
Sharemaestro Range
Where price is trading
The fitted range, accepted trading area and strongest price levels are calculated automatically from completed weekly market data.
Current stateInside accepted value
Range pressureCurrent range pressure · 50 is balanced
Weekly closeFitted rangeActivity ribbonEstimated activity at priceAutomatic level
52-week position
88.5%
Low to high
Accepted price
29.19
Latest versus accepted: -1.42%
Fitted direction
Rising
0.84% per week
Range pressure
59/100
Balanced pressure
Range condition
Normal
1.16× normal range
Automatic structure
Strongest price levels
Structural price levels, distance from close and supporting evidence
Reference
Price
From close
Evidence
Touches
Support
17.30
-39.9%
74/100
2
Support
20.89
-27.4%
89/100
5
Support
28.11
-2.3%
34/100
1
Resistance
29.19
1.4%
87/100
3
Resistance
30.51
6.0%
57/100
3
Current reading
What the range shows
Current positionInside accepted value
Price is at 88.5% of its latest 52-week range.
Fitted directionRising
The fitted centre line is moving +0.84% per week.
Range pressureBalanced pressure
The current pressure reading is 59/100; 50 is balanced.
Next structural level28.11
Support is 2.3% from the latest close with 34/100 evidence strength.
Point & Figure
Price structure · volume at price
Point & Figure market structure
Each X marks a rising price box and each O marks a falling price box. Time is removed from the horizontal scale so reversals, breakouts and areas of heavy trading stand out.
MethodAdaptive scale
Smart Money
Completed-week positioning evidence
Smart Money
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the trend or warning of increased risk.
Price, support and published events
Where confirmation strengthened or risk increased
Selected annotations highlight meaningful completed-week events; every existing chart series and marker remains visible.
Close Price
Trend Line
Demand Threshold Line
Reversal Risk Level
Current Smart Money readSmart Money evidence is mixed
Some visible evidence is supportive, but the combined picture does not yet justify a strong conclusion.
Momentum 0.86 · Holding steady
Trend qualityStrong alignment
The current trend state has persisted for 37 completed weeks; visible confirmation is strong alignment.
Momentum pathStrong · Holding steady
The latest completed-week level and direction.
Latest positive signalNo recent positive signal
The chart is carrying context rather than a fresh positive event marker.
Risk and warningsWarning
A demand warning appeared this week; watch whether support stabilises or weakens further.
Current evaluation
What the Smart Money chart means now
The reading combines the finished chart state, its direction and the timing of published signals.
What supports it
The current trend relationship and completed-week context are broadly aligned.
What would improve it
Continued alignment without a new warning would reinforce the current constructive position.
What could weaken it
A demand warning appeared this week; watch whether support stabilises or weakens further.
Published signal history
What changed, and when
Event markers are observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
Latest week
Reversal risk
The chart registered elevated reversal risk.
Latest week
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
1 week ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
2 weeks ago
Demand warning
Demand support weakened enough to merit attention.
3 weeks ago
Market Dynamics
Price and underlying support
Market Dynamics
See whether the support beneath price is strengthening, weakening, confirming the move or beginning to diverge from it.
Zero lineMarket Dynamics Rate of ChangePrice ActionVolume ActionFlip UpFlip Down
Price and support relationship · 12 completed weeks
Price is running ahead of Market Dynamics
Price is +1.3% across this view and is in the upper part of its stored price range, while Market Dynamics is 0.50 after a -0.70 change over the latest 4 completed weeks. The price move has less underlying support than its location suggests.
Latest 4 weeks in focus
Price change from 2026-07-24Market DynamicsLatest 4 completed weeks
Zone-to-zone journey model
At distribution for 16 completed weeks
The distribution reading is confirmed. A downward exit starts the reverse journey toward accumulation.
Current journey
No active journey
Activated
Not active
Model data
Through 2026-08-21
What Market Dynamics shows
Yes. Market Dynamics follows the completed-week transition between the two sides of a market cycle. Accumulation is the lower zone where selling pressure may be absorbed and support may be forming; distribution is the upper zone where earlier demand may be tiring and supply can begin to take control. The model measures both accumulation to distribution and the reverse journey, and waits for a deeper close or repeated closes before treating a new zone as confirmed. AMTB is currently in the distribution area, but a new transition does not begin until price leaves a confirmed zone. For an investor, the value is in separating an apparent price move from a completed change in market character: target confirmation can strengthen the case that a new phase is taking hold, while a confirmed source return warns that the attempted change did not persist and the risk/reward should be reassessed. The completed journeys below show how 1 transitions in this ticker's stored history reached and confirmed the opposite zone.
Accumulation 18.20Distribution 27.99
A dark-zone close or two consecutive light-zone closes confirms residence. A completed close moving out of confirmed accumulation starts a journey toward distribution; an exit from confirmed distribution starts the reverse journey. Time in each zone is retained before the next transition begins.
What actually happened before?
Successful zone transitions
Target-confirmed opposite-zone transitions from the latest 156 charted weeks.
Most recent successful journeyAccumulation to Distribution · Confirmed distribution
2025-11-28–2026-07-31 · 36 completed weeks · price move +58.1%. Across this chart, 1 journey confirmed an opposite zone: 1 reached distribution and 0 reached accumulation.
0% · confirmed source exit100% · confirmed opposite zone
Accumulation to DistributionConfirmed distribution
2025-11-28–2026-07-31 · journey 36w · source dwell 7w
Source exit50%Target confirmed
Furthest point
100%
Price move
+58.1%
Time to confirm
36w
Reached and confirmed distribution after 36 completed weeks. Price moved +58.1% from the confirmed source-zone exit.
Earnings and Price Index
Earnings and Price Index
A three-year index of the relationship between earnings power and market price.
Market price
Earnings power
Repricing spread
Earnings update
Current stateExpectations ahead
Market price is leading earnings power; the spread is widening and has persisted through 3 updates.
Spread
Widening
Persistence
3 quarters
Confirmation
Mixed support
Repricing pressure
Moderate — price-led
Market move75.2%
Three-year change
Earnings move1.1%
Three-year change
Repricing spread-74.1 pts
widening
Current valuation15.2×
Price relative to earnings power
Expectations elevated
Price is leading delivered earnings power by a meaningful margin.
Supporting evidence
Attribution, business confirmation and horizon robustness
The components behind the repricing relationship and the independent evidence that supports or challenges it.
What drove the move?
Earnings and relative valuation contributions
Shows how the earnings move and relative valuation combine into the total market move.
What supports the earnings picture?
Business confirmation
4 of 6 available business-quality checks are supportive.
EarningsRevenueCash generation
Cash conversionWhether reported profit is supported by free cash generation.Supportive
Revenue directionWhether top-line progress supports the earnings direction.Caution
Free-cash-flow directionWhether free cash flow is improving with earnings.Supportive
Accrual pressureLower accrual pressure is a cleaner confirmation of earnings.Supportive
Share countA stable or falling share count makes per-share progress more durable.Caution
Signal robustness
Does the relationship persist across time horizons?
Shows whether the same earnings or price lead remains visible from shorter starting points.
Market acceptance
How price responded to each earnings update
Across completed four-week windows, 3 improving updates had a non-positive price response; 0 had a meaningful positive price response.
Professional contextPeer rarity, comparable outcomes and state history
Comparable historical outcomes
There are not yet enough comparable point-in-time observations for a responsible outcome summary.
State transitions
Highlights when the dominant relationship between earnings power and market price changed.
Broadly aligned
Expectations ahead
Fundamental fracture
Broadly aligned
Fundamental fracture
Expectations ahead
Price Cycle
Completed-week market perception
Price Cycle
A deep view of whether price pressure is strong, weak, strengthening, fading or moving through a higher-risk transition.
Pressure, price and published transitions
Where market perception strengthened, faded or changed state
The percentage reading is primary. Weekly close is retained only as market context; selected annotations identify meaningful completed transitions.
Market PerceptionPositive pressureNegative pressureWeekly CloseBalanceCrossed upCrossed downPublished transition or Price Action signal
Current Price Cycle readPositive pressure remains established, but is cooling
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position. Positive pressure remains, but it is becoming less forceful.
+33.81% · Positive · Cooling
Market positionPositive
Price is holding a constructive market-perception position.
Pressure directionCooling
Positive pressure remains, but it is becoming less forceful.
Trend qualityUnstable
The recent path has changed direction frequently, reducing confidence in persistence.
Risks and warningsTransition risk
Frequent recent changes around balance make the current direction less dependable.
Current evaluation
What the Price Cycle says now
The evaluation combines the finished pressure state, its direction, persistence and historical context.
What supports it
Price remains in positive market-perception territory.
What would improve it
Renewed upward pressure without further loss of path quality would restore confidence.
What could weaken it
Frequent recent changes around balance make the current direction less dependable.
What to watch next
The latest path is cooling with unstable trend quality. Comparable history is mixed follow-through.
Statistical perspective
How unusual, persistent and historically consequential is this position?
Historical observations describe completed evidence. They do not predict the next price move.
Historical positionUpper 22% of history
The latest reading is stronger than 78% of completed observations.
State persistence39 completed weeks
The current positive state has persisted without interruption.
Comparable historyMixed follow-through
Across 77 comparable completed observations, later closes were higher 53% of the time; the typical move was +0.7%. This is context, not a forecast.
Published transition history
What changed, and when
Transitions are completed observations, not standalone instructions to buy or sell.
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
1 week ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
6 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
22 weeks ago
Positive pressure began cooling
Strength remained positive, but the completed path became less forceful.
31 weeks ago
Positive pressure established
The completed reading moved from weakness into positive pressure.
38 weeks ago
Recovery began
Negative pressure remained, but the completed path began to repair.
46 weeks ago
VWAP Control
Completed-week volume-weighted structure
VWAP Control
Read who has control, whether that control is strengthening, and which price levels would change the picture.
Price, VWAP structure and control transfers
Where control changed
156 completed weeks · Reported weekly volume
Price and its referencesThe navy line is price. Compare it with the VWAP lines to see whether it is holding above or below areas of volume-weighted trading.
Control over timeGreen, blue and rose backgrounds mark buyer control, contested conditions and seller control. Circles mark completed changes in control.
Strength of controlThe lower panel follows pressure through the same weeks. Higher readings favour buyers; lower readings favour sellers. This is a strength reading, not a probability.
A completed close above Latest earnings VWAP with pressure holding above 60 would strengthen buyer control.
Decision area28.74
13-week VWAP at 28.74, 0.1% below the latest close.
Weakening level28.74
A completed close below 13-week VWAP with acceptance moving under 50% would weaken the present structure.
Current VWAP stack
Volume-weighted price levels
View exact VWAP reference values
VWAP references relative to the latest close
Reference
Price
From close
13-week VWAP
28.74
-0.11%
Latest earnings VWAP
28.96
+0.67%
High-activity anchor
29.18
+1.43%
Swing high
29.24
+1.63%
26-week VWAP
26.62
-7.48%
Year VWAP
24.96
-13.24%
52-week VWAP
23.55
-18.15%
Estimated activity position
Activity above and below price
Below price 76%Above price 24%
26%near price
Most recent weighted activity is below price, leaving a larger estimated cushion beneath the market.
Estimated from completed weekly typical prices and reported activity; it is not holder-level cost-basis data.
Benchmark, sector and industry
VWAP control comparison
Sector and industry comparisons require at least ten constituents with aligned completed history.
Benchmark · SPYBroadly aligned with reference
Broadly aligned with reference; control-score gap -3.2 points.
Buyers firmly in control · 85/100
Sector · Financial ServicesStronger control than reference
Stronger control than reference; control-score gap +36.7 points.
Control is contested · 46/100
Industry · Banks - RegionalStronger control than reference
Stronger control than reference; control-score gap +24.9 points.
Control is contested · 57/100
Historical VWAP outcomes
Reclaims, losses and similar states
Descriptive outcomes from this ticker's visible history—not a forecast.
Weekly reclaim13% favourable
Events
8
Median 4w
-1.44%
Median 13w
-10.06%
Typical best
+9.14%
Typical worst
-14.85%
Completed occasions when price moved back above the core VWAP.
Weekly loss86% favourable
Events
7
Median 4w
-6.68%
Median 13w
-6.75%
Typical best
+10.67%
Typical worst
-11.70%
Completed occasions when price moved below the core VWAP.
Comparable control states36 matched weeks
Positive after 4w
53%
Median 4w
+0.68%
Positive after 13w
75%
Median 13w
+8.91%
Best / worst 13w
+30.8% / -23.8%
Outcomes after completed weeks with a similar control score and the same side of the core VWAP.
VWAP control history
Completed changes
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
Core VWAP test held
Price traded through the core VWAP but recovered above it by the completed close.
VWAP structure turned higher
The fast VWAP crossed above the core VWAP.
Buyer pressure established
The completed control reading moved into positive territory.
Core VWAP reclaimed
Price completed the week back above the core VWAP.
VWAP structure turned lower
The fast VWAP crossed below the core VWAP.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
VWAP reclaim rejected
Price tested above the core VWAP but completed the week back below it.
Next-State Map
Next-State Map
Historical one-week transition paths from similar completed-week states.
SMI
Proprietary completed-week evidence
SMI
See whether the underlying conditions beneath price are strengthening, weakening or holding firm.
Price and SMI transitions
Where underlying support changed
Annotations identify selected completed SMI state changes.
Weekly CloseTrend LineFair ValueActivity Lines
SMI pathDirection, persistence and turning points
SMI 0.98 · Strong
ImprovingHolding steadyWeakening
Current SMI readUnderlying support remains firmly established
Price strength is accompanied by a supportive SMI state. The latest reading is based on completed weekly evidence.
0.98 · Strong
Current stateStrong · 0.98
Latest completed-week SMI reading
DirectionHolding steady
How the completed SMI path is changing
PersistenceEstablished
21 completed weeks in the current state
Price relationshipConfirming price strength
Price strength is accompanied by a supportive SMI state.
SMI in context
Comparable SMI states have carried a positive historical bias
Across 33 comparable completed observations, 69.7% closed higher after 13 weeks. The median move was +13.0%.
Comparable observations
33Completed historical readings
Positive outcomes
69.7%After 13 completed weeks
Median move
+13.0%Over the following 13 weeks
Versus normal baseline
+12.1 ptsDifference in positive outcome rate
Chart Summary
Key Points
Week Ending
9 Oct 2026
Latest Close
28.77
12-Week Change
1.26%
Trend Signal
Active
Next-Week Expectancy
Undecided 48.81%
Signal Weeks
12 of 12
Vs Trend Line
Above
Vs Fair Value
Above
Relative Strength
13.75
Market Dynamics
0.50
Over the latest 12 completed weeks ending 2026-10-09, AMTB rose 1.26%, moving from 28.41 to 28.77. The latest weekly close is above the Trend Line and above Fair Value. Trend Signal is active on the latest week and was active in 12 of the last 12 weeks. Relative Strength is 13.75 and has softened across the 12-week window. Market Dynamics is 0.50 on the latest week. Next-week expectancy is undecided at 48.81% based on similar historical setup states.
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