Ticker Options Intelligence

CARR options intelligence

Carrier Global Corp options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 56 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:02 · complete available chain

Volatility expansion watch

Volatility pressure

CARR currently carries volatility options pressure with a 56/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 12.0%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Volatility

Volatility expansion watch

Expected move 12.0%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 3.88

Put-side skew

Trend fit 40

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop -10.3%

RS -6.8

Expected move 12.0%
Put-call volume 3.88
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 1.24
Max pain 68.50
Underlying 68.88
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 880

Research Brief

CARR has a volatility chain read with 56/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 60.60–77.16; The largest call open-interest concentration is 69.00; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 66.00.

Priced range60.60–77.16
Call concentration69.00
Put concentration65.00
Max pain reference68.50
What would confirm it
  • A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
What would weaken it
  • Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 60.60 to 77.16. Max pain at 68.50 sits inside that range, 0.6% below spot.

Spot Max pain
60.6068.88 ± 8.2877.16
Confirmation level

A close beyond 77.16 or below 60.60 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 56/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 66/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure66 × 42%
+27.5

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement40 × 26%
+10.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score56.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 69.00; the largest put concentration is 65.00. The most active strike by current volume is 66.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
461
57.00-17.2%
0
110
60.00-12.9%
11
155
61.00-11.4%
7
150
62.00-10.0%
0
115
63.00-8.5%
18
236
64.00-7.1%
6
2654
65.00-5.6%
37
841
66.00-4.2%
29
1
67.00-2.7%
110
191
68.00-1.3%
35
310
68.50-0.6%
32
42
69.000.2%
353
1
69.500.9%
193
18
70.001.6%
44
1
71.003.1%
93
0
72.004.5%
90
0
75.008.9%
100
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

3.32× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.24 31 Jul 1d
0.21 7 Aug 8d
0.34 14 Aug 15d
0.40 21 Aug 22d
0.38 28 Aug 29d
0.39 4 Sep 36d
0.27 11 Sep 43d
0.36 18 Sep 50d

Volatility by Strike

Upside optionality premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.

56
58
59
60
62
64
65
66
67
68
69
69
70
72
73
74
76
78
79
80
82
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
880 / 880
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

94/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Volatility flow versus price

Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $2.9M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 8-21 days · atm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-66
1W price-10.3%
Call premium8%
Put premium92%
Notional split C 8% / P 92% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 40/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 8-21 days · ATM
Puts · 8-21 days · ATM puts cluster with 2002 contracts traded, $1.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 47% of visible notional.
$1.4M
Puts · 0-7 days · ATM puts cluster with 853 contracts traded, $656570 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$656570
Puts · 0-7 days · OTM puts cluster with 891 contracts traded, $453370 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$453370
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 235 contracts traded, $95380 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$95380
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 404 contracts traded, $73290 estimated gross traded notional, and 3% of visible notional.
$73290

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close61.81
1W-10.3%
RS-6.8
Fair value-0.3%
Options pressure-66
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit40

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 12.0% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.24 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 3.88 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:07 Bearish
Pressure -96
Move 8.5%
30 Jul 10:05 Bearish
Pressure -78
Move 13.5%
31 Jul 10:02 Volatility
Pressure -66
Move 12.0%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike55.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 76
Strike56.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 4
Strike57.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 461
Strike58.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 53
Strike59.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 21
Puts · V 7 · OI 24
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 11
Puts · V 5 · OI 110
Strike61.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 7
Puts · V 0 · OI 155

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts74
Avg IV1.24
Put-call36.85
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.21
Put-call0.16
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.34
Put-call0.75
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts94
Avg IV0.40
Put-call20.12
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts68
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.16

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Call IV premium
Call IV0.95
Put IV0.62
Skew-0.33
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.39
Skew0.05
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.26
Put IV0.40
Skew0.14
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.38
Skew0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.39
Put IV0.36
Skew-0.03

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractCARR260821P00067500
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike67.50
Volume2001
OI2059
IV0.47
ContractCARR260731P00066000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike66.00
Volume842
OI841
IV1.68
ContractCARR260731P00068500
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike68.50
Volume477
OI310
IV2.39
ContractCARR260731P00068000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike68.00
Volume286
OI191
IV1.89
ContractCARR261218C00075000
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike75.00
Volume162
OI81
IV0.35
ContractCARR261218C00072500
SideCall
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Strike72.50
Volume155
OI828
IV0.36
ContractCARR260918C00060000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike60.00
Volume97
OI2474
IV0.35
ContractCARR260918C00070000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike70.00
Volume67
OI403
IV0.36