Ticker Options Intelligence

GWW options intelligence

WW Grainger Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 44 Market data through 31 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 22:48 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

GWW currently carries bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 6.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.14.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 6.4%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.14

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.64

Call-side skew

Trend fit 72

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop -0.9%

RS 17.3

Expected move 6.4%
Put-call volume 0.64
Volume / OI 0.14
Reference IV 0.35
Max pain 1360.00
Underlying 1382.60
Nearest expiry 21 Aug 2026
Contracts 601

Research Brief

GWW has a bullish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 1294.80–1470.40; The largest call open-interest concentration is 1360.00; the largest put concentration is 1420.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1420.00.

Priced range1294.80–1470.40
Call concentration1360.00
Put concentration1420.00
Max pain reference1360.00
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 21 Aug

Options imply 1294.80 to 1470.40. Max pain at 1360.00 sits inside that range, 1.6% below spot.

Spot Max pain
1294.801382.60 ± 87.801470.40
Confirmation level

A close beyond 1470.40 or below 1294.80 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 44/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 26/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure27 × 42%
+11.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation43 × 22%
+9.5

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement72 × 26%
+18.7

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility50 × 10%
+5.0

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score44.3Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 1360.00; the largest put concentration is 1420.00. The most active strike by current volume is 1420.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
1220.00-11.8%
0
30
1250.00-9.6%
0
26
1340.00-3.1%
2
12
1350.00-2.4%
20
20
1360.00-1.6%
128
6
1370.00-0.9%
8
7
1380.00-0.2%
11
1
1390.000.5%
66
10
1400.001.3%
18
46
1420.002.7%
8
0
1440.004.2%
98
26
1450.004.9%
8
0
1480.007.0%
23
0
1500.008.5%
56
0
1580.0014.3%
57
0
1600.0015.7%
14
0
1620.0017.2%
17
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.31× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.35 21 Aug 21d
0.33 18 Sep 49d
0.30 16 Oct 77d
0.30 18 Dec 140d
0.38 15 Jan 168d
0.29 19 Mar 231d
0.26 21 May 294d
0.29 17 Jun 321d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

1140
1180
1210
1230
1240
1260
1280
1300
1330
1350
1360
1380
1400
1420
1440
1460
1500
1520
1560
1600
1640
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A99/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
31 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
601 / 601
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

71/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow against weak price

Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $30.1M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+26
1W price-0.9%
Call premium86%
Put premium14%
Notional split C 86% / P 14% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.14 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 72/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 3 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 91+ days · ITM
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 578 contracts traded, $16.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 54% of visible notional.
$16.1M
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 304 contracts traded, $5.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$5.4M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM calls cluster with 484 contracts traded, $2.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2.7M
Puts · 91+ days · OTM puts cluster with 511 contracts traded, $2.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$2.6M
Calls · 91+ days · ATM calls cluster with 48 contracts traded, $622345 estimated gross traded notional, and 2% of visible notional.
$622345

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Warning Bullish pressure over fair value

Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 3 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close1382.60
1W-0.9%
RS17.3
Fair value+39.3%
Options pressure27
Speculation43
Volatility50
Trend fit72

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 6.4% history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
IV 0.35 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.64 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.14 history building
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:06 Bearish
Pressure -26
Move 6.7%
30 Jul 11:25 Mixed
Pressure 17
Move 6.7%
31 Jul 13:21 Bullish
Pressure 95
Move 6.6%
31 Jul 21:48 Bullish
Pressure 27
Move 6.4%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike1060.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 11 · OI 9
Strike1080.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 2
Strike1100.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 9 · OI 3
Strike1140.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike1160.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 10 · OI 12
Strike1180.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 11
Strike1200.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 5 · OI 8
Strike1210.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 1 · OI 2

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.35
Put-call1.20
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts10
Avg IV0.33
Put-call4.00
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts105
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.82
Expiry18 Dec 2026
Contracts95
Avg IV0.30
Put-call0.34
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts106
Avg IV0.38
Put-call0.43

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.35
Put IV0.38
Skew0.03
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.31
Skew0.01
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.30
Skew0.00
18 Dec 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.29
Skew-0.01
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.28
Skew-0.02

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractGWW270820P01050000
SidePut
Expiry20 Aug 2027
Strike1050.00
Volume-
OI296
IV0.32
ContractGWW271015P01050000
SidePut
Expiry15 Oct 2027
Strike1050.00
Volume-
OI244
IV0.32
ContractGWW270820C01700000
SideCall
Expiry20 Aug 2027
Strike1700.00
Volume-
OI217
IV0.28
ContractGWW271015C01700000
SideCall
Expiry15 Oct 2027
Strike1700.00
Volume-
OI159
IV0.29
ContractGWW271217C01700000
SideCall
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike1700.00
Volume-
OI131
IV0.29
ContractGWW271015C01760000
SideCall
Expiry15 Oct 2027
Strike1760.00
Volume-
OI120
IV0.28
ContractGWW271217P01450000
SidePut
Expiry17 Dec 2027
Strike1450.00
Volume-
OI104
IV0.23
ContractGWW271015P01340000
SidePut
Expiry15 Oct 2027
Strike1340.00
Volume-
OI100
IV0.26