Primary read
Bullish
Call-side pressure
Ticker Options Intelligence
AAOI options intelligence
Applied Opt options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
44
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:11 · complete available chain
Call-side pressure
Bullish pressure
AAOI currently carries bullish options pressure with a 44/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 10.5%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.19.
Expected move
10.5%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.19
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.59
Call-side skew
Trend fit
49
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-5.8%
RS 17.1
Expected move
10.5%
Put-call volume
0.59
Volume / OI
0.19
Reference IV
1.70
Max pain
90.00
Underlying
100.15
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
1984
Research Brief
AAOI has a bullish chain read with 44/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 89.62–110.68; The largest call open-interest concentration is 100.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 100.00.
Priced range89.62–110.68
Call concentration100.00
Put concentration100.00
Max pain reference90.00
- Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
- Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 89.62 to 110.68. Max pain at 90.00 sits inside that range, 10.1% below spot.
Spot
Max pain
89.62100.15 ± 10.53110.68
Confirmation level
A close beyond 110.68 or below 89.62 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 44/100
Pressure is 28/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure28 × 42%
+11.7
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation44 × 22%
+9.8
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement49 × 26%
+12.7
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 100.00; the largest put concentration is 100.00. The most active strike by current volume is 100.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
1366
60.00-40.1%
238
1447
65.00-35.1%
210
1458
70.00-30.1%
71
1383
75.00-25.1%
50
1141
80.00-20.1%
259
876
85.00-15.1%
371
680
90.00-10.1%
1021
324
95.00-5.1%
398
1623
100.00-0.1%
1432
504
105.004.8%
486
5
110.009.8%
1312
1
112.0011.8%
1057
70
115.0014.8%
922
25
120.0019.8%
944
2
130.0029.8%
923
0
150.0049.8%
960
0
200.0099.7%
1071
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.70
31 Jul
1d
1.93
7 Aug
8d
1.59
14 Aug
15d
1.48
21 Aug
22d
1.43
28 Aug
29d
1.38
4 Sep
36d
1.34
11 Sep
43d
1.34
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Upside optionality premium
Out-of-the-money calls carry higher implied volatility than comparable puts, indicating richer upside optionality.
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
101
102
104
106
108
110
112
114
116
118
120
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 1984 / 1984
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are leaning call-side while the stock is down on the week, a divergence that needs price confirmation.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $51.3M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · otm, and a bullish flow against weak price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+28
1W price-5.8%
Call premium40%
Put premium60%
Notional split
C 40% / P 60%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.19
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
49/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
6 Aug
Matched earnings event is 5 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · OTM
puts cluster with 3517 contracts traded, $7.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$7.4M
Puts · 22-45 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1945 contracts traded, $7.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 14% of visible notional.
$7.0M
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 1454 contracts traded, $5.0M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$5.0M
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 3696 contracts traded, $4.9M estimated gross traded notional, and 10% of visible notional.
$4.9M
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
calls cluster with 9401 contracts traded, $4.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$4.5M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Call pressure is building while the stock sits above Sharemaestro fair value.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close94.32
1W-5.8%
RS17.1
Fair value+153.6%
Options pressure28
Speculation44
Volatility96
Trend fit49
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:24
Mixed
Pressure 14
Move 14.6%
30 Jul 10:20
Bullish
Pressure 33
Move 24.0%
31 Jul 10:11
Bullish
Pressure 28
Move 10.5%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike50.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 48
Strike55.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 20
Puts · V 4 · OI 301
Strike60.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 238
Puts · V 5 · OI 1366
Strike62.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 0
Puts · V 2 · OI 0
Strike63.00
Calls · V 11 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike64.00
Calls · V 9 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike65.00
Calls · V 9 · OI 210
Puts · V 229 · OI 1447
Strike66.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 193
Puts · V 5 · OI 16
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts254
Avg IV1.70
Put-call0.32
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts242
Avg IV1.93
Put-call0.32
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts244
Avg IV1.59
Put-call0.63
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts132
Avg IV1.48
Put-call0.91
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts160
Avg IV1.43
Put-call2.02
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.64
Put IV1.64
Skew-
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.96
Put IV1.96
Skew-
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV1.59
Put IV1.65
Skew0.07
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.48
Put IV1.52
Skew0.04
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.43
Put IV1.45
Skew0.02
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractAAOI260731C00100000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike100.00
Volume3022
OI1432
IV1.61
ContractAAOI270115C00200000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike200.00
Volume2371
OI3883
IV1.27
ContractAAOI260731C00095000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike95.00
Volume2032
OI398
IV1.54
ContractAAOI260731C00090000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike90.00
Volume2027
OI1021
IV1.50
ContractAAOI260807C00100000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume1860
OI782
IV1.87
ContractAAOI260918P00075000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike75.00
Volume1352
OI852
IV1.34
ContractAAOI260918C00110000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike110.00
Volume1280
OI333
IV1.34
ContractAAOI260918P00050000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike50.00
Volume1166
OI1547
IV1.37
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Applied Optoelectronics Inc (AAOI) drawdown deepens after 14.6% weekly fall22 Jul 2026 01:59
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) weekly selloff cuts into a still-positive 12-week tape3 Jul 2026 16:09
Applied Opt (AAOI) suffers a 16.2% weekly break on above-average turnover29 Jun 2026 15:24
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) extends four-week slide despite 93.1% 12-week run19 Jun 2026 15:22
Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) pullback meets an active weekly trend17 Jun 2026 08:35
Applied Optoelectronics extends four-week pullback (AAOI)16 Jun 2026 00:06
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.