Ticker Options Intelligence

BILI options intelligence

Bilibili Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 39 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 12:01 · complete available chain

Call-side pressure

Bullish pressure

BILI currently carries bullish options pressure with a 39/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 11.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.01.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bullish

Call-side pressure

Expected move 11.7%

Wider near-term move priced

Activity / OI 0.01

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 0.62

Call-side skew

Trend fit 35

Options are not fully confirming trend

Weekly backdrop +11.3%

RS -29.0

Expected move 11.7%
Put-call volume 0.62
Volume / OI 0.01
Reference IV 1.12
Max pain 17.50
Underlying 17.16
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 662

Research Brief

BILI has a bullish chain read with 39/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 15.15–19.17; The largest call open-interest concentration is 19.00; the largest put concentration is 15.50. The most active strike by current volume is 19.50.

Priced range15.15–19.17
Call concentration19.00
Put concentration15.50
Max pain reference17.50
What would confirm it
  • Price holds or improves while call-side concentration remains elevated.
What would weaken it
  • Price weakens while call pressure fades or reverses toward puts.
  • Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 15.15 to 19.17. Max pain at 17.50 sits inside that range, 2.0% above spot.

Spot Max pain
15.1517.16 ± 2.0119.17
Confirmation level

A close beyond 19.17 or below 15.15 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 39/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 26/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure26 × 42%
+11.0

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation40 × 22%
+8.8

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement35 × 26%
+9.1

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score38.5Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 19.00; the largest put concentration is 15.50. The most active strike by current volume is 19.50. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
40
12.00-30.1%
4
40
13.00-24.2%
6
51
13.50-21.3%
8
51
15.00-12.6%
3
160
15.50-9.7%
1
31
16.00-6.8%
4
46
16.50-3.8%
15
54
17.00-0.9%
16
114
17.502.0%
115
66
18.004.9%
190
14
18.507.8%
221
15
19.0010.7%
669
5
19.5013.6%
624
17
20.0016.6%
333
3
20.5019.5%
169
8
21.0022.4%
41
4
22.0028.2%
119
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.79× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

1.12 31 Jul 1d
0.77 7 Aug 8d
0.72 14 Aug 15d
0.67 21 Aug 22d
0.73 28 Aug 29d
0.53 4 Sep 36d
0.63 18 Sep 50d
0.59 16 Oct 78d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

14
15
15
16
16
17
17
18
18
19
19
20
20
21
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

Usable with limits

C69/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
662 / 662
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Earnings/event positioning

92/100
Primary intent Earnings/event positioning

Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.

Flow vs price divergence Bullish flow confirms price

Options pressure and weekly price action are pointing in the same constructive direction.

Why this matters

Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $106622 of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 0-7 days · itm, and a bullish flow confirms price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure+26
1W price+11.3%
Call premium68%
Put premium32%
Notional split C 68% / P 32% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.01 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 35/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 20 Aug Matched earnings event is 19 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Calls · 0-7 days · ITM
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 47 contracts traded, $28514 estimated gross traded notional, and 27% of visible notional.
$28514
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 22 contracts traded, $18810 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$18810
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM puts cluster with 158 contracts traded, $16782 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$16782
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM calls cluster with 350 contracts traded, $7716 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$7716
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM calls cluster with 125 contracts traded, $4102 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$4102

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Warning Volatility expansion

The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Warning Crowded strike risk

Underlying price is close to the max-pain zone.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close19.10
1W+11.3%
RS-29.0
Fair value+1.2%
Options pressure26
Speculation40
Volatility96
Trend fit35

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 11.7% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 1.12 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 0.62 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.01 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:33 Bullish
Pressure 21
Move 6.3%
30 Jul 13:18 Bullish
Pressure 55
Move 13.4%
31 Jul 11:01 Bullish
Pressure 26
Move 11.7%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike11.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 2
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike12.00
Calls · V 16 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 40
Strike12.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike13.00
Calls · V 14 · OI 6
Puts · V 0 · OI 40
Strike13.50
Calls · V 1 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 51
Strike14.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike14.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 5
Puts · V 0 · OI 22
Strike15.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 51

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts78
Avg IV1.12
Put-call0.22
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts62
Avg IV0.77
Put-call2.00
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.72
Put-call0.16
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts110
Avg IV0.67
Put-call1.86
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.73
Put-call0.63

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.61
Put IV0.96
Skew0.35
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.58
Skew-0.01
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.59
Put IV0.69
Skew0.10
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.70
Put IV0.68
Skew-0.02
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.86
Skew0.21

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractBILI260731C00019500
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike19.50
Volume167
OI624
IV0.73
ContractBILI260807P00018000
SidePut
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike18.00
Volume95
OI33
IV0.56
ContractBILI260731C00019000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike19.00
Volume65
OI669
IV0.61
ContractBILI260814C00020000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike20.00
Volume40
OI57
IV0.53
ContractBILI260807C00019000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike19.00
Volume29
OI625
IV0.08
ContractBILI260814C00021000
SideCall
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Strike21.00
Volume29
OI68
IV0.29
ContractBILI260731C00018500
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike18.50
Volume27
OI221
IV1.17
ContractBILI260821P00017000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike17.00
Volume24
OI4116
IV0.68