Primary read
Mixed
Options-market disagreement
Ticker Options Intelligence
MSTR options intelligence
MicroStrategy Incorporated options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
33
Market data through 30 Jul 2026
Checked 31 Jul 2026 11:02 · partial chain
Options-market disagreement
Mixed pressure
MSTR currently carries mixed options pressure with a 33/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 7.4%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.13.
Expected move
7.4%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.13
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.80
Balanced tape
Trend fit
41
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+1.8%
RS -56.5
Expected move
7.4%
Put-call volume
0.80
Volume / OI
0.13
Reference IV
1.19
Max pain
95.00
Underlying
91.67
Nearest expiry
31 Jul 2026
Contracts
2000
Research Brief
MSTR has a mixed chain read with 33/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 84.93–98.41; The largest call open-interest concentration is 102.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 94.00.
Priced range84.93–98.41
Call concentration102.00
Put concentration50.00
Max pain reference95.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 84.93 to 98.41. Max pain at 95.00 sits inside that range, 3.6% above spot.
Spot
Max pain
84.9391.67 ± 6.7498.41
Confirmation level
A close beyond 98.41 or below 84.93 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 33/100
Pressure is 10/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure10 × 42%
+4.3
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation43 × 22%
+9.5
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement41 × 26%
+10.6
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility85 × 10%
+8.5
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 102.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 94.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
34367
50.00-45.5%
126
12541
55.00-40.0%
152
14821
60.00-34.5%
665
5896
75.00-18.2%
36
8358
90.00-1.8%
991
1790
94.002.5%
10380
5502
95.003.6%
22390
3707
96.004.7%
11999
378
96.505.3%
16782
2326
97.506.4%
19417
1237
99.008.0%
9691
1524
100.009.1%
19149
328
101.0010.2%
10059
158
102.0011.3%
25321
232
103.0012.4%
21371
598
105.0014.5%
6557
779
110.0020.0%
6391
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
1.19
31 Jul
1d
0.82
7 Aug
8d
0.80
14 Aug
15d
0.79
21 Aug
22d
0.80
28 Aug
29d
0.81
4 Sep
36d
0.78
11 Sep
43d
0.80
18 Sep
50d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
95
97
98
99
100
102
104
106
108
110
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
Usable with limits
Retained chain61%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Retained chain subset
- Market date
- 30 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 2000 / 3278
- 61% of provider contracts were retained for this snapshot.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Put-heavy activity
Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.
The options read is mixed, so divergence is not strong enough to classify.
Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $231.8M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 91+ days · itm, and a no clean flow/price divergence backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+10
1W price+1.8%
Call premium16%
Put premium84%
Notional split
C 16% / P 84%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.13
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
41/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 6267 contracts traded, $111.7M estimated gross traded notional, and 48% of visible notional.
$111.7M
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 3698 contracts traded, $40.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$40.6M
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 4043 contracts traded, $24.6M estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$24.6M
Calls · 0-7 days · OTM
calls cluster with 104481 contracts traded, $20.2M estimated gross traded notional, and 9% of visible notional.
$20.2M
Puts · 0-7 days · ITM
puts cluster with 14826 contracts traded, $10.4M estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$10.4M
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 2 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close93.28
1W+1.8%
RS-56.5
Fair value-52.7%
Options pressure10
Speculation43
Volatility85
Trend fit41
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:07
Mixed
Pressure 7
Move 8.6%
30 Jul 10:05
Bullish
Pressure 38
Move 7.2%
31 Jul 10:02
Mixed
Pressure 10
Move 7.4%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike30.00
Calls · V 116 · OI 4501
Puts · V 0 · OI 1432
Strike35.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 5
Puts · V 426 · OI 2900
Strike40.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 59
Puts · V 6 · OI 8233
Strike45.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 2
Puts · V 243 · OI 7732
Strike50.00
Calls · V 8 · OI 126
Puts · V 3759 · OI 34367
Strike55.00
Calls · V 5 · OI 152
Puts · V 44 · OI 12541
Strike60.00
Calls · V 10 · OI 665
Puts · V 24 · OI 14821
Strike63.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1332
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts210
Avg IV1.19
Put-call0.63
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts174
Avg IV0.82
Put-call0.44
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts174
Avg IV0.80
Put-call1.91
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts262
Avg IV0.79
Put-call1.62
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts118
Avg IV0.80
Put-call3.49
Skew
Call/put IV balance
31 Jul 2026Balanced skew
Call IV1.23
Put IV1.27
Skew0.04
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.82
Put IV0.83
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.79
Put IV0.81
Skew0.03
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.78
Put IV0.81
Skew0.04
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.78
Put IV0.82
Skew0.05
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractMSTR260807C00100000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike100.00
Volume9114
OI4804
IV0.81
ContractMSTR260731C00094000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike94.00
Volume8868
OI10380
IV1.14
ContractMSTR260807C00105000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike105.00
Volume8748
OI1214
IV0.82
ContractMSTR260731C00100000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike100.00
Volume8711
OI19149
IV1.21
ContractMSTR260731P00090000
SidePut
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike90.00
Volume7839
OI8358
IV1.29
ContractMSTR260731C00099000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike99.00
Volume7412
OI9691
IV1.19
ContractMSTR260731C00105000
SideCall
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Strike105.00
Volume6288
OI6557
IV1.26
ContractMSTR260807C00110000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike110.00
Volume5420
OI3473
IV0.83
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
Earnings
No upcoming matched earnings event.
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.