Ticker Options Intelligence

BP options intelligence

BP PLC ADR options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.

Conviction 45 Market data through 30 Jul 2026 Checked 31 Jul 2026 10:41 · complete available chain

Put-side pressure

Bearish pressure

BP currently carries bearish options pressure with a 45/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 1.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.04.

Options Intelligence Opportunities Bullish confirmation Risks Unusual flow Vol expansion Repeated pressure Compare Chart Weekly report
Primary read Bearish

Put-side pressure

Expected move 1.7%

Near-term move context

Activity / OI 0.04

Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest

Put-call 1.81

Put-side skew

Trend fit 90

Options agree with trend context

Weekly backdrop +4.6%

RS 7.7

Expected move 1.7%
Put-call volume 1.81
Volume / OI 0.04
Reference IV 0.39
Max pain 41.00
Underlying 43.82
Nearest expiry 31 Jul 2026
Contracts 780

Research Brief

BP has a bearish chain read with 45/100 evidence alignment.

The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 43.06–44.58; The largest call open-interest concentration is 42.50; the largest put concentration is 41.50. The most active strike by current volume is 44.00.

Priced range43.06–44.58
Call concentration42.50
Put concentration41.50
Max pain reference41.00
What would confirm it
  • Price remains weak while put-side concentration persists.
  • The current chain read already agrees with the stored weekly trend context.
What would weaken it
  • Price recovers while put pressure fades or reverses toward calls.
  • Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.

Priced Move

Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional

Size, not direction · through 31 Jul

Options imply 43.06 to 44.58. Max pain at 41.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.

Spot Max pain
43.0643.82 ± 0.7644.58
Confirmation level

A close beyond 44.58 or below 43.06 at the 31 Jul expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.

Important limitation

The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.

Score Construction

Why conviction is 45/100

Evidence alignment, not probability

Pressure is 22/100 toward puts; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.

Directional pressure22 × 42%
+9.1

How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.

Participation41 × 22%
+9.0

Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.

Trend agreement90 × 26%
+23.3

How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.

Volatility34 × 10%
+3.4

The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.

Reconstructed score44.9Matches stored calculation

Positioning by Strike

Where open interest and current activity concentrate

Full strike map

The largest call open-interest concentration is 42.50; the largest put concentration is 41.50. The most active strike by current volume is 44.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.

Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
43
34.00-22.4%
153
330
37.00-15.6%
31
375
38.00-13.3%
256
146
39.00-11.0%
340
279
40.00-8.7%
318
374
41.00-6.4%
481
479
41.50-5.3%
177
339
42.00-4.2%
315
251
42.50-3.0%
2729
330
43.00-1.9%
257
196
43.50-0.7%
603
109
44.000.4%
1518
70
44.501.6%
429
10
45.002.7%
1239
0
45.503.8%
832
1
46.005.0%
255
0
47.007.3%
487
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry

Volatility Curve

Front-loaded volatility

1.31× front/back

Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.

0.39 31 Jul 1d
0.41 7 Aug 8d
0.38 14 Aug 15d
0.35 21 Aug 22d
0.32 28 Aug 29d
0.33 4 Sep 36d
0.24 11 Sep 43d
0.32 18 Sep 50d

Volatility by Strike

Downside protection premium

Nearest expiry, within 20% of spot

Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.

36
36
37
38
39
39
40
41
42
42
43
44
44
45
46
47
47
48
49
51
52
Put IV Call IV

Historical Replay

How matured reads behaved through expiry

0 directional observations

Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 31 Jul 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.

Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
  • Versioned calculationv2 observations only
  • Independent entryone read per market session
  • Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
  • Matched expiry closereported only after maturity

Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.

Evidence Quality

High

A100/100
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
Chain status
Complete available chain
Market date
30 Jul 2026
Calculation
v2.0
Contracts
780 / 780
  • No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.

Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.

Options Intent Radar

Put-heavy activity

66/100
Primary intent Put-heavy activity

Put-side activity dominates. This can reflect hedging or directional positioning, but the chain alone cannot distinguish buying from selling.

Flow vs price divergence Bearish flow against rising price

Put-side pressure is building while price is rising, a cautionary divergence.

Why this matters

Put-heavy activity matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $3.9M of estimated gross traded notional, puts · 46-90 days · atm, and a bearish flow against rising price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.

Options pressure-22
1W price+4.6%
Call premium39%
Put premium61%
Notional split C 39% / P 61% Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness 0.04 Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit 90/100 Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window 4 Aug Matched earnings event is 4 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Conviction clusters Puts · 46-90 days · ATM
Puts · 46-90 days · ATM puts cluster with 8572 contracts traded, $2.1M estimated gross traded notional, and 53% of visible notional.
$2.1M
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM calls cluster with 1849 contracts traded, $428722 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$428722
Calls · 91+ days · ITM calls cluster with 372 contracts traded, $323665 estimated gross traded notional, and 8% of visible notional.
$323665
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM calls cluster with 536 contracts traded, $172968 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$172968
Calls · 0-7 days · ITM calls cluster with 244 contracts traded, $161472 estimated gross traded notional, and 4% of visible notional.
$161472

Setup Classification

Opportunity and risk frame

Context, not advice
Positive Options-confirmed trend

Positioning agrees with the Sharemaestro trend backdrop.

Warning Event-risk setup

Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.

Activity Anomaly

Warming up

-

2 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.

Baseline: 2 completed sessions

Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-

Market Context

Underlying confirmation

Sharemaestro weekly
Close43.82
1W+4.6%
RS7.7
Fair value+33.1%
Options pressure-22
Speculation41
Volatility34
Trend fit90

Today Versus Normal

Stored-options context

View history
Expected move 1.7% history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
IV 0.39 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Put-call 1.81 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -
Volume/OI 0.04 history building
30d avg - · 2/10 sessions -
90d avg - · 2/30 sessions -
180d avg - · 2/60 sessions -

Pressure Trail

Recent pressure and volatility

Open trail
29 Jul 10:02 Bullish
Pressure 85
Move 5.3%
30 Jul 05:13 Bullish
Pressure 63
Move 4.8%
31 Jul 09:41 Bearish
Pressure -22
Move 1.7%

Strike Map

Where activity is clustering

Full strike map
Strike25.00
Calls · V 3 · OI 8
Puts · V 1 · OI 0
Strike27.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 15
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike28.00
Calls · V 2 · OI 11
Puts · V 3 · OI 31
Strike29.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 3
Puts · V 2 · OI 20
Strike30.00
Calls · V 20 · OI 18
Puts · V 0 · OI 17
Strike31.00
Calls · V 31 · OI 20
Puts · V 0 · OI 10
Strike32.00
Calls · V 13 · OI 8
Puts · V 0 · OI 62
Strike33.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 19
Puts · V 0 · OI 30

Term Structure

Expiration activity

Volume and IV
Expiry31 Jul 2026
Contracts88
Avg IV0.39
Put-call0.26
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.41
Put-call0.38
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts84
Avg IV0.38
Put-call2.75
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts80
Avg IV0.35
Put-call1.34
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts54
Avg IV0.32
Put-call0.01

Skew

Call/put IV balance

OTM demand
31 Jul 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.36
Put IV0.62
Skew0.26
7 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.40
Put IV0.41
Skew0.01
14 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.34
Put IV0.41
Skew0.08
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.32
Put IV0.39
Skew0.07
28 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.30
Put IV0.36
Skew0.06

Contract Tape

Most active contracts

Full contract tape
ContractBP261016P00044000
SidePut
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike44.00
Volume8427
OI62
IV0.34
ContractBP260918C00043000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike43.00
Volume1073
OI5964
IV0.27
ContractBP260918C00044000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike44.00
Volume753
OI1249
IV0.28
ContractBP260918P00041000
SidePut
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike41.00
Volume753
OI636
IV0.35
ContractBP260821P00038000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike38.00
Volume685
OI647
IV0.41
ContractBP260918C00046000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike46.00
Volume520
OI713
IV0.29
ContractBP260918C00042000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike42.00
Volume510
OI11074
IV0.26
ContractBP260821P00043000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike43.00
Volume483
OI1040
IV0.40