Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
BRSL options intelligence
Brightstar Lottery PLC options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
66
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 3 Aug 2026 17:57 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
BRSL currently carries volatility options pressure with a 66/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 9.7%, with volume/open-interest participation at 1.35.
Expected move
9.7%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
1.35
Current volume is elevated versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.01
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-3.6%
RS -32.6
Expected move
9.7%
Put-call volume
0.01
Volume / OI
1.35
Reference IV
0.67
Max pain
9.00
Underlying
10.04
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
96
Research Brief
BRSL has a volatility chain read with 66/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 9.06–11.02; The largest call open-interest concentration is 9.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 9.00.
Priced range9.06–11.02
Call concentration9.00
Put concentration10.00
Max pain reference9.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 9.06 to 11.02. Max pain at 9.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
9.0610.04 ± 0.9811.02
Confirmation level
A close beyond 11.02 or below 9.06 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 66/100
Pressure is 100/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure100 × 42%
+42.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation71 × 22%
+15.7
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility86 × 10%
+8.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 9.00; the largest put concentration is 10.00. The most active strike by current volume is 9.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
2
5.00-50.2%
0
108
9.00-10.4%
501
115
10.00-0.4%
2
21
11.009.6%
172
10
12.0019.5%
217
2
13.0029.5%
134
0
14.0039.4%
33
0
15.0049.4%
9
0
16.0059.4%
1
0
17.0069.3%
1
0
18.0079.3%
2
0
19.0089.2%
2
0
20.0099.2%
17
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$18,540Delta change / 1% move
Positive peak12.00+$12,171
Negative peak10.00-$15,104
Nearest balance10.75Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
2.00-80.1%
+$5
5.00-50.2%
-$1
7.00-30.3%
+$12
8.00-20.3%
+$1,012
9.00-10.4%
+$6,819
10.00-0.4%
-$15,104
11.009.6%
+$4,913
12.0019.5%
+$12,171
13.0029.5%
+$2,635
14.0039.4%
+$1,157
15.0049.4%
+$2,282
16.0059.4%
+$6
17.0069.3%
+$1,052
18.0079.3%
+$145
19.0089.2%
+$244
20.0099.2%
+$935
22.00119.1%
+$483
24.00139.0%
+$176
25.00149.0%
-$530
27.00168.9%
+$96
30.00198.8%
-$3
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.67
21 Aug
18d
0.65
18 Sep
46d
0.60
16 Oct
74d
0.50
15 Jan
165d
0.58
21 Jan
536d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
9
10
11
12
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Auditable calculationoriginal version retained
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes98%
Open interest98%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 96 / 96
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $4.6M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+100
1W price-3.6%
Call premium100%
Put premium0%
Notional split
C 100% / P 0%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
1.35
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 0 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 7250 contracts traded, $4.5M estimated gross traded notional, and 98% of visible notional.
$4.5M
Calls · 8-21 days · ITM
calls cluster with 500 contracts traded, $56,250 estimated gross traded notional, and 1% of visible notional.
$56,250
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 14 contracts traded, $9,110 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$9,110
Calls · 46-90 days · ITM
calls cluster with 10 contracts traded, $6,380 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$6,380
Puts · 46-90 days · ITM
puts cluster with 20 contracts traded, $4,995 estimated gross traded notional, and 0% of visible notional.
$4,995
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
Participation is active enough to treat follow-through risk carefully.
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close10.04
1W-3.6%
RS-32.6
Fair value-34.3%
Options pressure100
Speculation71
Volatility86
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 11:00
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 9.8%
30 Jul 10:49
Mixed
Pressure -9
Move 8.6%
31 Jul 10:33
Bullish
Pressure 56
Move 8.4%
31 Jul 15:46
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 11.8%
1 Aug 12:12
Bullish
Pressure 99
Move 7.2%
2 Aug 12:01
Bullish
Pressure 99
Move 7.5%
3 Aug 15:48
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 10.0%
3 Aug 16:57
Volatility
Pressure 100
Move 9.7%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike5.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike9.00
Calls · V 500 · OI 501
Puts · V 1 · OI 108
Strike10.00
Calls · V 4 · OI 2
Puts · V 6 · OI 115
Strike11.00
Calls · V 120 · OI 172
Puts · V 3 · OI 21
Strike12.00
Calls · V 38 · OI 217
Puts · V 1 · OI 10
Strike13.00
Calls · V 24 · OI 134
Puts · V 2 · OI 2
Strike14.00
Calls · V 32 · OI 33
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike15.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 9
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts18
Avg IV0.67
Put-call0.02
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts6
Avg IV0.65
Put-call0.01
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts17
Avg IV0.60
Put-call0.23
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts36
Avg IV0.50
Put-call0.00
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Contracts19
Avg IV0.58
Put-call0.09
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.47
Put IV0.59
Skew0.12
18 Sep 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.53
Put IV1.19
Skew0.65
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.62
Put IV0.65
Skew0.03
15 Jan 2027Call IV premium
Call IV0.51
Put IV0.42
Skew-0.09
21 Jan 2028Put IV premium
Call IV0.55
Put IV0.81
Skew0.25
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractBRSL270115P00002000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike2.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractBRSL270115C00027000
SideCall
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike27.00
Volume-
OI-
IV-
ContractBRSL270115P00020000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike20.00
Volume-
OI47
IV0.00
ContractBRSL280121P00013000
SidePut
Expiry21 Jan 2028
Strike13.00
Volume-
OI9
IV0.50
ContractBRSL260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume-
OI9
IV1.28
ContractBRSL270115P00018000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike18.00
Volume-
OI6
IV0.00
ContractBRSL260821P00005000
SidePut
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike5.00
Volume-
OI2
IV1.80
ContractBRSL260821C00019000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike19.00
Volume-
OI2
IV2.25
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.