Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
QXO options intelligence
QXO, Inc. options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
47
Market data through 3 Aug 2026
Checked 4 Aug 2026 09:00 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
QXO currently carries volatility options pressure with a 47/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 8.3%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.03.
Expected move
8.3%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.03
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.24
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
+2.3%
RS -37.9
Expected move
8.3%
Put-call volume
0.24
Volume / OI
0.03
Reference IV
0.84
Max pain
14.50
Underlying
13.30
Nearest expiry
7 Aug 2026
Contracts
786
Research Brief
QXO has a volatility chain read with 47/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 12.20–14.40; The largest call open-interest concentration is 18.00; the largest put concentration is 13.00. The most active strike by current volume is 14.00.
Priced range12.20–14.40
Call concentration18.00
Put concentration13.00
Max pain reference14.50
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 12.20 to 14.40. Max pain at 14.50 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
12.2013.30 ± 1.1014.40
Confirmation level
A close beyond 14.40 or below 12.20 at the 7 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 47/100
Pressure is 70/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure70 × 42%
+29.6
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+8.9
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility89 × 10%
+8.9
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 18.00; the largest put concentration is 13.00. The most active strike by current volume is 14.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
16
11.00-17.3%
0
213
11.50-13.5%
0
78
12.00-9.8%
4
98
12.50-6.0%
31
3358
13.00-2.3%
1546
665
13.501.5%
161
348
14.005.3%
230
2664
14.509.0%
4815
262
15.0012.8%
3073
32
15.5016.5%
2299
38
16.0020.3%
357
18
16.5024.1%
429
157
17.0027.8%
164
1
17.5031.6%
448
5
18.0035.3%
5173
1
18.5039.1%
27
0
20.0050.4%
25
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Gamma Profile by Strike
Positive gamma proxy
Call-side gamma sensitivity outweighs the put-side proxy across the retained chain. The largest bars mark levels where delta-hedging sensitivity may be most concentrated.
Net profile+$2.2MDelta change / 1% move
Positive peak25.00+$683,530
Negative peak13.00-$194,132
Nearest balance14.09Interpolated sign change
StrikeNegativePositiveNet / 1% move
8.00-39.8%
-$196
9.00-32.3%
-$2,632
9.50-28.6%
+$13
10.00-24.8%
-$853
10.50-21.1%
-$52
11.00-17.3%
-$14,886
11.50-13.5%
-$2,136
12.00-9.8%
-$116,795
12.50-6.0%
-$5,114
13.00-2.3%
-$194,132
13.501.5%
-$35,173
14.005.3%
-$12,153
14.509.0%
+$53,599
15.0012.8%
+$274,297
15.5016.5%
+$117,236
16.0020.3%
+$114,223
16.5024.1%
+$29,578
17.0027.8%
+$328,905
17.5031.6%
+$4,584
18.0035.3%
+$457,068
18.5039.1%
+$103
Positive call-side proxy Negative put-side proxyHighlighted row is nearest spot strike
Scenario proxy = gamma × open interest × 100 shares × spot² × 1%. Calls are positive and puts negative by convention. Missing Greeks use a Black-Scholes estimate from stored IV with zero rate and dividend assumptions. Open interest does not reveal who is long or short, so this is not observed dealer positioning or a forecast.
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.84
7 Aug
4d
0.85
14 Aug
11d
0.77
21 Aug
18d
0.76
28 Aug
25d
0.73
4 Sep
32d
0.71
11 Sep
39d
0.72
18 Sep
46d
0.71
16 Oct
74d
Volatility by Strike
Downside protection premium
Out-of-the-money puts carry higher implied volatility than comparable calls, indicating richer downside protection.
11
12
12
13
13
14
14
15
15
16
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Across 1 stored directional transitions, the next stored price moved in the labelled direction 100% of the time.
Directional follow-through100%
Moves contained by pricing100%
Average expiry move2.7%
30 Jul
Bearish · 43
-2.7% through expiry
3.3% priced · v2.0
Eligible snapshots must have a dated market session, stored signal, and point-in-time market reference. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first stored weekly close on or immediately after expiry; its original calculation version is retained. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 3 Aug 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 786 / 786
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.8M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · itm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+70
1W price+2.3%
Call premium66%
Put premium34%
Notional split
C 66% / P 34%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.03
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
13 Aug
Matched earnings event is 9 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 343 contracts traded, $331,315 estimated gross traded notional, and 18% of visible notional.
$331,315
Puts · 91+ days · ITM
puts cluster with 842 contracts traded, $287,745 estimated gross traded notional, and 16% of visible notional.
$287,745
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 5120 contracts traded, $227,774 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$227,774
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 1445 contracts traded, $224,825 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$224,825
Puts · 8-21 days · ITM
puts cluster with 931 contracts traded, $218,095 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$218,095
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
4 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 4 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close13.30
1W+2.3%
RS-37.9
Fair value-62.0%
Options pressure70
Speculation41
Volatility89
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 4/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 4/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 4/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:24
Volatility
Pressure 69
Move 7.1%
30 Jul 12:31
Volatility
Pressure 85
Move 4.9%
31 Jul 08:08
Bearish
Pressure -23
Move 3.3%
31 Jul 23:49
Mixed
Pressure 8
Move 1.8%
1 Aug 13:38
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 7.3%
2 Aug 14:24
Bullish
Pressure 31
Move 7.5%
4 Aug 08:00
Volatility
Pressure 70
Move 8.3%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike9.00
Calls · V 12 · OI 4
Puts · V 0 · OI 0
Strike9.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 3
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike10.00
Calls · V 0 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 2
Strike10.50
Calls · V 2 · OI 1
Puts · V 0 · OI 1
Strike11.00
Calls · V 15 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 16
Strike11.50
Calls · V 0 · OI 0
Puts · V 0 · OI 213
Strike12.00
Calls · V 157 · OI 4
Puts · V 5 · OI 78
Strike12.50
Calls · V 11 · OI 31
Puts · V 32 · OI 98
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.84
Put-call0.18
Expiry14 Aug 2026
Contracts64
Avg IV0.85
Put-call0.11
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts90
Avg IV0.77
Put-call0.25
Expiry28 Aug 2026
Contracts60
Avg IV0.76
Put-call0.09
Expiry4 Sep 2026
Contracts58
Avg IV0.73
Put-call0.20
Skew
Call/put IV balance
7 Aug 2026Put IV premium
Call IV0.78
Put IV0.85
Skew0.08
14 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.80
Put IV0.83
Skew0.04
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.81
Put IV0.79
Skew-0.02
28 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.74
Put IV0.78
Skew0.04
4 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.65
Put IV0.69
Skew0.04
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractQXO260821C00015000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume2185
OI1957
IV0.78
ContractQXO260918C00017000
SideCall
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Strike17.00
Volume1323
OI10399
IV0.71
ContractQXO260807C00014000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike14.00
Volume942
OI230
IV0.82
ContractQXO270115P00015000
SidePut
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Strike15.00
Volume639
OI4815
IV0.71
ContractQXO260807C00014500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike14.50
Volume608
OI4815
IV0.80
ContractQXO260807C00015000
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike15.00
Volume553
OI3073
IV0.78
ContractQXO260821C00016000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike16.00
Volume468
OI3997
IV0.81
ContractQXO260807C00015500
SideCall
Expiry7 Aug 2026
Strike15.50
Volume414
OI2299
IV0.81
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
No recent ticker-specific news yet.
Market Watch
No recent market-watch posts yet.
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.