Hold and wait for confirmation
The evidence is balanced enough to avoid a defensive call, but not aligned enough for aggressive positioning.
Thermal Coal
For the week ending 25 September 2026, Thermal Coal declined 0.90% with 44 advancing, 63 declining, and 7 unchanged constituents.
- Index level
- 1,483.14 Index points · base 1,000
- Weekly return
- -0.90%
- Measured equities
- 114
- Rank within sector
- 3 of 8
156 completed weeks
Thermal Coal price and trend
Explore the index, how widely companies share the move, the trend’s momentum and declines from previous highs.
Trend structureUnresolved
Index vs Trend-0.2%
13-week persistence11.4%
Advancing participation39%
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive Transition Defensive
Weekly index closes and the Trend Line. Dashed grey shows the latest Fair Value reference; it is not a historical forecast. Enable the other overlays for more detail.
Performance in context
Thermal Coal in context
Price and participation determine the view. Sentiment remains a separate confirmation layer.
Five measures
51Quality of the positioning case
Trend
45
Breadth
41
Persistence
54
Relative
52
Risk quality
89
Parent-relative performance
Composite rank 3 of 8Returns versus Energy
HorizonReturnRelative
1 week-0.9%0.8 pts
4 weeks-2.4%-1.9 pts
13 weeks11.4%2.4 pts
26 weeks-6.2%-3.4 pts
52 weeks7.8%-12.1 pts
Return is the industry index’s change. Relative is its return minus Energy, in percentage points.
Relative leadership path
ImprovingThermal Coal versus Energy
Relative performance13-week relative trendStarting level · 100
Both indexes are compared from the same starting date. Above 100 means Thermal Coal has outperformed Energy since that date; below 100 means it has lagged. A rising line indicates improving relative performance, even when both markets are falling.
Supporting evidence
Confirmation and conflict
!Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
!Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
!Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
!The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
!Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 16 percentage points.
Decision boundaries
What would change the view?
1A completed weekly reclaim of 1,485.47, the higher of Trend Line and Fair Value, would improve the structural case.
2Breadth holding above 55% for several completed weeks would show that repair is spreading.
3Positive 13 and 26-week relative performance would confirm that capital is rotating into the group.
Trend state and durability
Trend, durability and market stages
The industry index path is tested against the securities beneath it.
Index trend structure
9 weeksUnresolved
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
Trend conditionMixedActivity Line spread3.22%Closes above Activity Lines67%Closes below Activity Lines0%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
75% agreementPositive regime, horizons divided
The 52-week trend is positive, although not every measured horizon confirms it.
13-week
11.4%
26-week
-6.2%
39-week
3.5%
52-week
7.8%
Regime age62 weeks52-week flips052-week boundary1375.69
Company trends
96% coverageHow broadly durable is the move?
58%positive
Coherent positive19%
Coherent negative16%
Horizon agreement77%
Weakening positives15
Repairing negatives18
110 constituents measured as of 18 Sep 2026.
Market stages
96% coverageWhere companies sit in the cycle
43%Stage 4
Stage 1 Basing22%24
Stage 2 Advancing27%29
Stage 3 Distribution8%9
Stage 4 Declining43%47
Re-acceleration0Transition watch13Fair Value repairs15
Stage coverage is shown explicitly and is not substituted for full-universe persistence coverage.
Countries and regions
Where Thermal Coal strength is developing
Country returns, participation and Trend position show whether the global result is widely shared or locally concentrated.
Countries measured914 represented in the full universe
Positive countries4 / 9Latest weekly return above zero
Above Trend Line56%5 country indexes
Return dispersion3.13 ptsCross-country opportunity and divergence
Europe5.57%
1 countries · 4 equities · 4% of measured coverage
Asia Pacific-0.84%
6 countries · 93 equities · 82% of measured coverage
North America-0.87%
1 countries · 6 equities · 5% of measured coverage
Middle East and Africa-4.75%
1 countries · 4 equities · 4% of measured coverage
Country evidence map
Minimum 3 constituentsReturn, breadth and trend condition
🇬🇧GB4
5.57%
75% up · below Trend
🇮🇳IN7
2.36%
57% up · below Trend
🇨🇳CN26
1.45%
73% up · above Trend
🇹🇭TH5
1.08%
40% up · above Trend
🇭🇰HK15
-0.62%
20% up · below Trend
🇺🇸US6
-0.87%
33% up · below Trend
🇮🇩ID33
-3.02%
21% up · above Trend
🇦🇺AU7
-4.02%
14% up · above Trend
🇿🇦ZA4
-4.75%
0% up · above Trend
5 thin country slices are excluded from comparative conclusions. Their securities remain in the global index.
Country leadership
Strongest country readings
🇬🇧United Kingdom4 equities5.57%
🇮🇳India7 equities2.36%
🇨🇳China26 equities1.45%
🇹🇭Thailand5 equities1.08%
🇭🇰Hong Kong15 equities-0.62%
🇺🇸United States6 equities-0.87%
Country pressure
Weakest country readings
🇿🇦South Africa4 equities-4.75%
🇦🇺Australia7 equities-4.02%
🇮🇩Indonesia33 equities-3.02%
🇺🇸United States6 equities-0.87%
🇭🇰Hong Kong15 equities-0.62%
🇹🇭Thailand5 equities1.08%
Related industries
Where Thermal Coal sits inside Energy
Relative performance over four and thirteen weeks, alongside participation, separate durable leadership from a one-week move.
Composite rank3 / 8
Leading3
Lagging4
Above Trend3 / 8
Return dispersion1.32 pts
Relative rotation map
Is this industry gaining or surrendering leadership?
↑ Four-week return versus Energy Percentage-point difference
Thirteen-week return versus Energy →
Numbers match the ranking. Larger markers represent more constituents. Fine lines connect separated markers to their actual positions.
Explore the rotation mapHover or focus a marker or ranking to inspect its relative returns.
Leadership quality · latest completed week
Do the leaders have broad support?
3 of 3 relative leaders with breadth data have fewer than half their companies advancing this week. Leadership is not yet matched by broad weekly participation.
Top six by composite scoreCompanies advancing13-week
relative return
relative return
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
36%
+11.6 pp
Oil & Gas Integrated
43%
+4.9 pp
Thermal Coal
39%
+2.4 pp
Oil & Gas E&P
21%
+0.4 pp
Oil & Gas Midstream
12%
-2.1 pp
Oil & Gas Equipment & Services
31%
-7.4 pp
The tick marks 50% advancing; unchanged companies remain in the denominator. A weak week can challenge a longer lead without reversing it. Relative return is measured against Energy.
Composite industry ranking
Score / 100Momentum with confirmation
1
Oil & Gas Refining & MarketingLeading · 36% advancing
100
2Oil & Gas IntegratedLeading · 43% advancing
82
3Thermal CoalWeakening · 39% advancing
44
4Oil & Gas E&PLeading · 21% advancing
40
5Oil & Gas MidstreamLagging · 12% advancing
33
6Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesLagging · 31% advancing
8
7Oil & Gas DrillingLagging · 14% advancing
3
8UraniumLagging · 24% advancing
0
The score combines relative returns, weekly participation and the gap to Trend. It ranks the evidence; it is not a probability or an expected return.
Participation and risk
Breadth, momentum and risk
The headline index is tested against participation, volatility, drawdown and the distribution of security returns.
Advancing participation38.6%-13.0 points versus recent baseline
13-week positive weeks77%Index-level hit rate
Annualised volatility13.9%52-week index return volatility
Current drawdown-6.7%From the 52-week index high
156-week max drawdown-18.7%Peak-to-trough index decline
Market participation
Range -100 to +100Net advancing participation
Trend momentum
Positive or negative slopeTrend Line rate of change
Company returns
114 equitiesWhat the headline return conceals
Average loser-4.64%
Average winner+4.84%
Median equity-0.52%The middle security, less sensitive to extreme movers
Interquartile range-3.63% to 1.08%The central half of the universe
Security dispersion7.25 ptsCross-sectional opportunity and stock-selection risk
News and price confirmation
News and price agreement
News snapshot prepared 28 Sep 2026, 19:50 BST for this weekly report.
Qualified sentiment coverage for this industry is still building.
Company performance
The equities driving the result
Weekly leaders and laggards reveal whether the index move is broad, concentrated or vulnerable to reversal.
Leadership
Strongest weekly contributors
Pressure
Weakest weekly contributors
Latest week
All industry constituents
Showing 1-30 of 114, sorted by weekly return.
| Ticker | Company | Market | Open | High | Low | Close | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0065 | Grand Ocean Advanced Resources Company Limited | HK · HKG | 0.25 | 0.44 | 0.249 | 0.37 | 48.59% |
| ARII | PT Atlas Resources Tbk | ID · JKT | 288.00 | 350.00 | 284.00 | 326.00 | 14.79% |
| GMRP&UI | GMR Power And Urban Infra Limited | IN · NSI | 92.00 | 103.62 | 92.00 | 102.68 | 11.23% |
| ORCP | Oracle Power PLC | GB · LSE | 0.0004 | 0.00045 | 0.00035 | 0.0004 | 11.11% |
| GCM | GCM Resources Plc | GB · LSE | 0.0141 | 0.0175 | 0.0125 | 0.016 | 10.34% |
| BSSR | PT Baramulti Suksessarana Tbk | ID · JKT | 4,970.00 | 5,500.00 | 4,910.00 | 5,375.00 | 8.37% |
| UMS | Unique Mining Services Public Company Limited | TH · SET | 0.61 | 0.70 | 0.59 | 0.66 | 8.20% |
| CMLL | CALIBER MINING AND LOG L | IN · NSI | 477.70 | 523.00 | 473.30 | 516.85 | 8.20% |
| 601918 | China Coal Xinji Energy Co.,Ltd | CN · SHH | 10.25 | 11.22 | 10.19 | 11.15 | 8.15% |
| SMMT | PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk | ID · JKT | 2,910.00 | 3,240.00 | 2,860.00 | 3,130.00 | 7.56% |
| CGO | Contango Holdings plc | GB · LSE | 0.00775 | 0.0085 | 0.0065 | 0.0075 | 7.14% |
| 900948 | Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Co.,Ltd. | CN · SHH | 3.40 | 3.69 | 3.40 | 3.64 | 7.13% |
| 600403 | Henan Dayou Energy Co., Ltd | CN · SHH | 6.63 | 7.70 | 6.60 | 7.19 | 6.68% |
| RE4 | Geo Energy Resources Limited | SG · SES | 0.535 | 0.57 | 0.53 | 0.565 | 5.61% |
| REFEX | Refex Industries Limited | IN · NSI | 281.95 | 297.00 | 278.65 | 285.80 | 5.13% |
| SGER | PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk | ID · JKT | 695.00 | 755.00 | 695.00 | 735.00 | 5.00% |
| 601001 | Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.,ltd. | CN · SHH | 16.75 | 18.51 | 16.65 | 17.65 | 5.00% |
| COALINDIA | Coal India Limited | IN · NSI | 411.70 | 429.40 | 410.45 | 426.10 | 3.95% |
| 601088 | China Shenhua Energy Company Limited | CN · SHH | 46.18 | 48.16 | 45.76 | 48.03 | 3.89% |
| 0866 | China Qinfa Group Limited | HK · HKG | 1.91 | 2.06 | 1.88 | 1.96 | 2.88% |
| 601225 | Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited | CN · SHH | 25.10 | 26.22 | 24.91 | 25.83 | 2.50% |
| MCOL | PT Prima Andalan Mandiri Tbk | ID · JKT | 3,600.00 | 3,690.00 | 3,520.00 | 3,680.00 | 2.22% |
| NC | NACCO Industries Inc | US · NYSE | 37.13 | 38.74 | 36.10 | 37.67 | 2.06% |
| 600508 | Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co., Ltd. | CN · SHH | 10.36 | 10.99 | 10.35 | 10.76 | 1.93% |
| WEC | White Energy Company Limited | AU · ASX | 0.305 | 0.325 | 0.295 | 0.305 | 1.67% |
| 1733 | E-Commodities Holdings Limited | HK · HKG | 0.695 | 0.72 | 0.67 | 0.705 | 1.44% |
| 600971 | Anhui Hengyuan Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co.,Ltd | CN · SHH | 8.32 | 8.58 | 8.28 | 8.46 | 1.44% |
| 000983 | Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. | CN · SHZ | 6.42 | 6.64 | 6.40 | 6.53 | 1.40% |
| 601101 | Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co., Ltd. | CN · SHH | 12.82 | 13.70 | 12.70 | 13.06 | 1.08% |
| 601898 | China Coal Energy Company Limited | CN · SHH | 13.78 | 14.27 | 13.70 | 14.01 | 1.08% |