Primary read
Volatility
Volatility expansion watch
Ticker Options Intelligence
GFS options intelligence
Globalfoundries Inc options pressure, expected move, strike concentration, and Sharemaestro trend context.
Conviction
55
Market data through 31 Jul 2026
Checked 2 Aug 2026 09:06 · complete available chain
Volatility expansion watch
Volatility pressure
GFS currently carries volatility options pressure with a 55/100 conviction score. The nearest-chain expected move is 17.6%, with volume/open-interest participation at 0.05.
Expected move
17.6%
Wider near-term move priced
Activity / OI
0.05
Current volume is quieter versus prior open interest
Put-call
0.06
Call-side skew
Trend fit
0
Options are not fully confirming trend
Weekly backdrop
-6.6%
RS -2.7
Expected move
17.6%
Put-call volume
0.06
Volume / OI
0.05
Reference IV
0.96
Max pain
65.00
Underlying
49.99
Nearest expiry
21 Aug 2026
Contracts
316
Research Brief
GFS has a volatility chain read with 55/100 evidence alignment.
The practical question is whether the underlying confirms the options concentration. The chain prices a reference range of 41.19–58.79; The largest call open-interest concentration is 70.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00.
Priced range41.19–58.79
Call concentration70.00
Put concentration50.00
Max pain reference65.00
- A clear directional pressure reading develops and price begins to agree.
- Volatility falls and the chain remains directionally mixed.
- Options and the weekly trend are not yet giving the same message.
- Front-expiry volatility is rich, so the signal may be event-driven and vulnerable to volatility compression.
Priced Move
Where the chain says movement becomes exceptional
Options imply 41.19 to 58.79. Max pain at 65.00 lies outside the priced range, so it is a weak near-term anchor.
Spot
Max pain
41.1949.99 ± 8.8058.79
Confirmation level
A close beyond 58.79 or below 41.19 at the 21 Aug expiry would exceed the move currently priced by this chain.
Important limitation
The range is a pricing reference, not a forecast; volatility can reprice sharply after news or as expiry approaches.
Score Construction
Why conviction is 55/100
Pressure is 86/100 toward calls; conviction uses its strength, while the signal label carries its direction.
Directional pressure86 × 42%
+36.0
How strongly activity leans toward calls or puts.
Participation41 × 22%
+9.1
Volume relative to existing open interest and contract-level activity.
Trend agreement0 × 26%
+0.0
How closely the chain read agrees with the underlying trend backdrop.
Volatility96 × 10%
+9.6
The intensity of implied volatility and the priced move.
Positioning by Strike
Where open interest and current activity concentrate
The largest call open-interest concentration is 70.00; the largest put concentration is 50.00. The most active strike by current volume is 70.00. Open-interest concentrations show where positions exist; they are not proven support, resistance or dealer exposure.
Put open interestStrikeCall open interest
50
35.00-30.0%
0
408
40.00-20.0%
76
1524
45.00-10.0%
148
2106
50.000.0%
539
1654
55.0010.0%
349
1461
60.0020.0%
518
723
65.0030.0%
864
344
70.0040.0%
15297
148
75.0050.0%
306
261
80.0060.0%
807
334
85.0070.0%
346
2
90.0080.0%
244
0
95.0090.0%
99
0
100.00100.0%
926
0
105.00110.0%
213
0
110.00120.0%
44
0
120.00140.0%
58
Nearest spot strike Max pain strikeBars show relative OI within this expiry
Volatility Curve
Front-loaded volatility
Near-term options are materially richer than later expirations, consistent with concentrated event or immediate-risk pricing.
0.96
21 Aug
21d
0.84
18 Sep
49d
0.81
16 Oct
77d
0.77
15 Jan
168d
0.77
19 Mar
231d
0.78
17 Jun
321d
0.76
17 Sep
413d
0.75
21 Jan
539d
Volatility by Strike
Balanced wings
Comparable upside calls and downside puts carry broadly similar implied volatility.
40
45
50
55
Put IV Call IV
Historical Replay
How matured reads behaved through expiry
Forward validation is building. The earliest eligible stored read expires 21 Aug 2026; its result will appear after the matched closing reference is stored.
Directional follow-through-
Moves contained by pricing-
Average expiry move-
Validation readiness
- Versioned calculationv2 observations only
- Independent entryone read per market session
- Point-in-time referencerequired at entry
- Matched expiry closereported only after maturity
Only v2 snapshots with a point-in-time market reference are eligible. Each observation uses one read per market session and the first weekly close on or immediately after expiry. It is an evidence audit, not an executable strategy or evidence of future performance.
Evidence Quality
High
Retained chain100%
Implied volatility100%
Two-sided quotes100%
Open interest100%
- Chain status
- Complete available chain
- Market date
- 31 Jul 2026
- Calculation
- v2.0
- Contracts
- 316 / 316
- No material coverage gap was detected in the retained chain.
Aggregate chain data supports concentration, participation and pricing analysis. It does not identify trade aggressor, opening versus closing activity, multi-leg intent or dealer inventory.
Options Intent Radar
Earnings/event positioning
Options activity is concentrated around a live event window, so the cleanest read is event positioning rather than pure direction.
Options are pricing movement more than direction; compare expected move with the stock's actual weekly change.
Earnings/event positioning matters because it connects the options headline to the actual evidence: $1.5M of estimated gross traded notional, calls · 91+ days · otm, and a volatility flow versus price backdrop. Use it as a research priority signal, then validate the chart, liquidity, event calendar, and risk before acting.
Options pressure+86
1W price-6.6%
Call premium91%
Put premium9%
Notional split
C 91% / P 9%
Estimated gross traded notional uses volume × contract multiplier × midpoint, or last price when no valid midpoint is available.
Freshness
0.05
Volume divided by open interest across the visible chain.
Trend fit
0/100
Agreement between options pressure and Sharemaestro market context.
Event window
4 Aug
Matched earnings event is 2 days away.
Aggregate chain data does not identify trade aggressor or opening versus closing activity; call/put concentration is not proof of market direction.
Calls · 91+ days · OTM
calls cluster with 462 contracts traded, $355540 estimated gross traded notional, and 23% of visible notional.
$355540
Calls · 46-90 days · OTM
calls cluster with 1438 contracts traded, $330252 estimated gross traded notional, and 22% of visible notional.
$330252
Calls · 8-21 days · OTM
calls cluster with 2421 contracts traded, $181445 estimated gross traded notional, and 12% of visible notional.
$181445
Calls · 91+ days · ITM
calls cluster with 69 contracts traded, $173735 estimated gross traded notional, and 11% of visible notional.
$173735
Calls · 46-90 days · ATM
calls cluster with 153 contracts traded, $113515 estimated gross traded notional, and 7% of visible notional.
$113515
Setup Classification
Opportunity and risk frame
The tape is pricing or displaying unusually elevated activity.
Expected move or upcoming earnings makes the setup more event-sensitive.
Options positioning is not confirming the underlying trend context.
Activity Anomaly
Warming up
3 of 10 completed market sessions are available. More session history is needed before activity can be compared with a reliable normal.
Baseline: 3 completed sessions
Volume rank-
Volume/OI rank-
IV rank-
Market Context
Underlying confirmation
Close49.99
1W-6.6%
RS-2.7
Fair value+5.9%
Options pressure86
Speculation41
Volatility96
Trend fit0
Today Versus Normal
Stored-options context
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
30d avg - · 3/10 sessions
-
90d avg - · 3/30 sessions
-
180d avg - · 3/60 sessions
-
Pressure Trail
Recent pressure and volatility
29 Jul 10:10
Volatility
Pressure -70
Move 19.9%
30 Jul 10:06
Volatility
Pressure 39
Move 20.5%
31 Jul 10:03
Volatility
Pressure 46
Move 19.7%
31 Jul 20:39
Volatility
Pressure 69
Move 18.6%
2 Aug 08:06
Volatility
Pressure 86
Move 17.6%
Strike Map
Where activity is clustering
Strike35.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 0
Puts · V 13 · OI 50
Strike40.00
Calls · V 1 · OI 76
Puts · V 29 · OI 408
Strike45.00
Calls · V 14 · OI 148
Puts · V 39 · OI 1524
Strike50.00
Calls · V 87 · OI 539
Puts · V 114 · OI 2106
Strike55.00
Calls · V 83 · OI 349
Puts · V 11 · OI 1654
Strike60.00
Calls · V 609 · OI 518
Puts · V 0 · OI 1461
Strike65.00
Calls · V 129 · OI 864
Puts · V 1 · OI 723
Strike70.00
Calls · V 974 · OI 15297
Puts · V 0 · OI 344
Term Structure
Expiration activity
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Contracts40
Avg IV0.96
Put-call0.08
Expiry18 Sep 2026
Contracts30
Avg IV0.84
Put-call0.06
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Contracts46
Avg IV0.81
Put-call0.01
Expiry15 Jan 2027
Contracts50
Avg IV0.77
Put-call0.05
Expiry19 Mar 2027
Contracts26
Avg IV0.77
Put-call1.26
Skew
Call/put IV balance
21 Aug 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.94
Put IV0.93
Skew-0.01
18 Sep 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.83
Put IV0.81
Skew-0.02
16 Oct 2026Balanced skew
Call IV0.80
Put IV0.80
Skew-
15 Jan 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.77
Put IV0.76
Skew-0.01
19 Mar 2027Balanced skew
Call IV0.79
Put IV0.76
Skew-0.03
Contract Tape
Most active contracts
ContractGFS260821C00070000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike70.00
Volume974
OI15297
IV0.97
ContractGFS260821C00060000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike60.00
Volume609
OI518
IV0.94
ContractGFS261016C00100000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike100.00
Volume531
OI1302
IV0.84
ContractGFS261016C00060000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike60.00
Volume505
OI285
IV0.81
ContractGFS260821C00075000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike75.00
Volume299
OI306
IV0.91
ContractGFS260821C00080000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike80.00
Volume296
OI807
IV1.12
ContractGFS261016C00050000
SideCall
Expiry16 Oct 2026
Strike50.00
Volume137
OI273
IV0.81
ContractGFS260821C00065000
SideCall
Expiry21 Aug 2026
Strike65.00
Volume129
OI864
IV0.93
Research Graph
Related research and context
Sharemaestro research
Related News
Market Watch
Earnings
Plain English Guide
Options context
What usually looks constructive
What usually looks cautious
Options can move quickly and can lose value fast. Treat this as research context, not a buy or sell instruction.