Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
42
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Aluminum
For the week ending 25 September 2026, Aluminum declined 0.13% with 11 advancing, 24 declining, and 1 unchanged constituents.
- Index level
- 2,352.57 Index points · base 1,000
- Weekly return
- -0.13%
- Measured companies
- 36 36 in the index universe
- Weekly breadth
- 11 up / 24 down 1 unchanged
- Weekly peer rank
- 6 of 13
Universe country-listed · Equity onlyPrice basis Adjusted weekly closeConstruction Capped equal-weight returns · Weekly rebuild
Explore Basic Materials →
156 completed weeks
Aluminum price and trend
Current architecture
Unresolved
7 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-5.5%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
50%
Positive regime, horizons divided
Participation
31%
11 advancing, 24 declining
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive Transition Defensive
Weekly index closes and the Trend Line. Dashed grey shows the latest Fair Value reference; it is not a historical forecast. Enable the other overlays for more detail.
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
32
Breadth
40
Persistence
37
Relative
54
Risk quality
71
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 68 percentage points.
- The index is extended well above current Fair Value, increasing chase risk.
- Positive contribution is concentrated in a small leadership cohort.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
State age7 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width2.56%
Fast versus slow change2.15 pts
Above 0%
Below 17%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
50% agreement
Positive regime, horizons divided
The 52-week trend is positive, although not every measured horizon confirms it.
13-week
0.1%
26-week
-6.4%
39-week
-0.1%
52-week
8.6%
Constituent trend persistence
100% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
50%positive
Coherent positive6%
Coherent negative33%
Average horizon agreement77%
Positive horizon share37%
Weakening positives8
Repairing negatives2
36 constituents measured as of 18 Sep 2026. Median trend age is 22 weeks.
Custom stage map
97% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
77%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing6%2 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing9%3 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution9%3 securities
Stage 4 · Declining77%27 securities
Re-acceleration watch0
Transition watch2
Relative strength leaders14%
Fair Value repairs0
Measured as of 25 Sep 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
72/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Basic Materials
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
The relative index starts at 100. Above 100 means this group has outperformed Basic Materials since the first plotted date; below 100 means it has lagged. A rising line can show relative improvement even when both markets are falling.
Relative index98.9
13-week trend99.6
4-week trend change0.17%
Weekly peer rank6 of 13
1 week
-0.1 pts
relative
4 weeks
-0.4 pts
relative
13 weeks
2.5 pts
relative
26 weeks
-1.7 pts
relative
52 weeks
-0.8 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
31%
advanced
- Advancing
- 11
- Declining
- 24
- Unchanged
- 1
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility29.2%
Drawdown from 52-week high-17.5%
Positive weeks, last 1346%
Current directional run1 week
Turnover versus 13-week norm126%
Breadth impulse-19.9 pts
Cross-section
36 measured
Return distribution
5Below −5%14%
17−5% to −1%47%
5−1% to +1%14%
5+1% to +5%14%
4Above +5%11%
Weekly returns across measured companies. Bars are scaled to the largest group; percentages show each group’s share.
Q1 -4.1%
Median -1.5%
Q3 0.7%
Average winner6.6%
Average loser-3.2%
Dispersion6.1 pts
Top-five upside share85%
Top-five capital share64%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week price change
Index price change over 30 weeks, or the available history if shorter. Green above zero; red below.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
Within the same sector
Where are returns broadly supported?
Compare the weekly result with the share of companies advancing.
↑ Companies advancing · 50% marks half of measured companies
−8.2%Weekly index return · zero at centre+8.2%
Compare return with participationHover or focus a marker for the full reading. Select it to open the report.
Markers show weekly return rank. Hover or focus for the name. Fine lines connect separated markers to their actual positions. Up, down and unchanged companies all count in participation.
| Rank / Industry | Weekly return | Advancing share | Up / down | Companies | Week ending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Lumber & Wood ProductionBasic Materials | 4.42% | 75% | 6 / 2 | 8 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 2Coking CoalBasic Materials | 2.44% | 56% | 5 / 3 | 9 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 3Specialty ChemicalsBasic Materials | 0.95% | 54% | 134 / 114 | 249 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 4Building MaterialsBasic Materials | 0.62% | 54% | 21 / 17 | 39 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 5ChemicalsBasic Materials | 0.21% | 42% | 76 / 105 | 183 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 6AluminumBasic Materials | -0.13% | 31% | 11 / 24 | 36 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 7Agricultural InputsBasic Materials | -0.29% | 43% | 24 / 31 | 56 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 8Paper & Paper ProductsBasic Materials | -1.17% | 21% | 5 / 19 | 24 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 9SteelBasic Materials | -1.24% | 24% | 14 / 44 | 59 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 10Other Precious Metals & MiningBasic Materials | -1.36% | 25% | 1 / 3 | 4 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 11Other Industrial Metals & MiningBasic Materials | -2.60% | 14% | 8 / 48 | 56 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 12CopperBasic Materials | -3.73% | 0% | 0 / 15 | 15 | 25 Sep 2026 |
| 13GoldBasic Materials | -8.23% | 0% | 0 / 8 | 8 | 25 Sep 2026 |
China · Weekly return relationships
Which markets move together?
Compare sectors and industries within China over the same 52-week window. Strong positive relationships can mean that apparently different holdings share the same risk.
Closest: Industrials and Consumer Cyclical (0.93; 51 weeks).
11 indexes · 55 qualifying pairsClosest: Specialty Industrial Machinery and Metal Fabrication (0.98; 51 weeks).
113 indexes · 6328 qualifying pairs−1 · Opposite0 · No linear link+1 · Together
Read the market at the top against the market at the left. The diagonal compares each index with itself. Up to 10 indexes are shown, ordered by constituent coverage. Select a cell to inspect a pair, or use the selectors for other markets.
Closest to the reference
Pearson correlation of weekly percentage returns through 25 Sep 2026: +1 means moving together, 0 little linear relationship, −1 moving in opposite directions. Requires 39 matching observations for the 52-week comparison and 10 for the recent 13 weeks. Missing weeks are excluded, not filled with zero. Constant series have no defined correlation. These are local-currency, capped equal-weight indexes; sectors and their component industries overlap. A lower correlation does not establish a hedge.
Sector correlations compare broad business groups. Industry correlations reveal closer links within and across sectors. The selectors retain all qualified groups; the matrix shows the ten largest by company coverage.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
Sentiment evidence is still developing
Qualified company-level news coverage is not yet broad enough to influence the group view.
0 qualified records across 36 measured constituents.Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Leading edge
1 300489Optics Technology Holding Co.,Ltd
20.71%
2
603937Jiangsu Lidao New Materials Co., Ltd.
17.11%
3
603978Shenzhen SunXing Light Alloys Materials Co.,Ltd.
13.98%
4
001400Giansun Precision Technology Group Co., Ltd.
6.37%
5
002578Fujian Minfa Aluminium Inc.
3.55%
Weakest edge
36 002379Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding Company Limited
-8.62%
35
000612JiaoZuo WanFang Aluminum Manufacturing Co., Ltd
-6.05%
34
002532Tianshan Aluminum Group Co.,Ltd
-5.46%
33
603876Jiangsu Dingsheng New Materials Joint-Stock Co.,Ltd
-5.38%
32
601600Aluminum Corporation of China Limited
-5.03%
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 36 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
28
000933
Henan Shenhuo Coal Industry and Electricity Power Co. Ltd
SHZ
60.30B
25.72
-0.11 pts
-4.07%
36
002379
Shandong Hongqiao Aluminum Industry Holding Company Limited
SHZ
221.27B
16.11
-0.24 pts
-8.62%
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.