Counter-trend rallies may occur, but primary structure and persistence do not yet support adding risk.
35
technical evidence
out of 100
out of 100
Week Ending: 28 August 2026
United States US Industrials Industry
Aerospace & Defense
For the week ending 28 August 2026, Aerospace & Defense declined 4.94% with 9 advancing, 73 declining, and 1 unchanged constituents. The index is equal weighted and the constituent tape shows uncapped security returns.
Current architecture
Unresolved
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
35
technical evidence
Index1967.06
1 week-4.94%
Breadth11%
Members83
Country
🇺🇸 United States · US
Sector
Industrials
Universe
NASDAQ, NYSE
Price basis
Adjusted weekly close
Trend architecture
Index, activity fan and structural anchors
Rolling 156-week evidence. Trend Signal points mark weeks when price, trend and the activity fan confirmed together.
Index Value
Trend Line
Fair Value
Activity Lines
Constructive architecture
Transitional architecture
Defensive architecture
Current architecture
Unresolved
3 completed weeks in this state
Trend acceptance
-9.3%
Index versus Trend Line
Persistence
50%
Positive regime, shorter trend weakening
Participation
11%
9 advancing, 73 declining
Investor positioning lens
Is the evidence ready for capital?
A rules-based technical classification using trend, breadth, persistence, relative strength and path quality.
Evidence balance
Reduce
Five-pillar map
Trend
35
Breadth
26
Persistence
50
Relative
9
Risk quality
67
What supports the view
- No major confirming factor has secured control.
What restrains conviction
- Index trend architecture has not delivered a durable upward expansion.
- Breadth remains too narrow or inconsistent for a high-conviction position.
- Constituent persistence remains divided or predominantly negative.
- The group is not yet delivering dependable relative outperformance.
- Stage 4 declining constituents exceed Stage 2 advancing constituents by 18 percentage points.
- Positive contribution is concentrated in a small leadership cohort.
This is a weekly research classification, not personal investment advice. Sentiment is reported as an independent confirmation layer and does not alter the technical score.
Trend state and durability
Architecture, persistence and constituent regimes
The index path is tested against the underlying security-level trend evidence.
The Activity Lines, Trend Line and price acceptance remain genuinely mixed.
State age3 weeks
Trend gateDown
Fan width4.08%
Fast versus slow change2.49 pts
Above 17%
Below 67%
Six completed weeks of price acceptance relative to the full Activity Line fan.
Index persistence
50% agreement
Positive regime, shorter trend weakening
The long trend remains positive, but the 13-week horizon has turned against it.
13-week
-19.8%
26-week
-12.7%
39-week
3.5%
52-week
2.4%
Constituent trend persistence
82% coverage
Is the index move broadly durable?
59%positive
Coherent positive21%
Coherent negative28%
Average horizon agreement81%
Positive horizon share47%
Weakening positives20
Repairing negatives1
68 constituents measured as of 28 Aug 2026. Median trend age is 26 weeks.
Custom stage map
75% coverage
Where constituents sit in the cycle
50%Stage 4
Stage 1 · Basing5%3 securities
Stage 2 · Advancing32%20 securities
Stage 3 · Distribution13%8 securities
Stage 4 · Declining50%31 securities
Re-acceleration watch1
Transition watch7
Relative strength leaders11%
Fair Value repairs0
Measured as of 28 Aug 2026. Stages summarize price, Activity Line architecture, Fair Value position and relative evidence.
Architecture breadth
77/100 mean confidence
How market energy is distributed
Architecture breadth shows the distribution of expanding, rotating, balancing and contracting securities. It is diagnostic context and is not added as a second vote in the positioning score.
Capital rotation
Performance relative to Industrials
Relative index
13-week relative trend
Starting level
A rising relative line means this group is compounding faster than Industrials. A falling line means capital has done better in the parent benchmark.
Relative index138.9
13-week trend144.5
4-week trend change-2.43%
Weekly peer rank24 of 24
1 week
-2.6 pts
relative
4 weeks
-1.1 pts
relative
13 weeks
-14.3 pts
relative
26 weeks
-10.8 pts
relative
52 weeks
1.7 pts
relative
Market internals
Participation, dispersion and path risk
Equal-weight index evidence with constituent-level breadth and dispersion.
Breadth
Narrow
Participation quality
11%
advanced
- Advancing
- 9
- Declining
- 73
- Unchanged
- 1
Risk and persistence
52-week lens
Path quality
Annualised weekly volatility31.7%
Drawdown from 52-week high-19.8%
Positive weeks, last 1338%
Current directional run2 weeks
Turnover versus 13-week norm63%
Breadth impulse-33.6 pts
Cross-section
83 measured
Return distribution
Q1 -9.2%
Median -4.2%
Q3 -1.4%
Average winner4.9%
Average loser-6.2%
Dispersion6.4 pts
Top-five upside share95%
Top-five capital share75%
Capital data coverage100%
Dispersion describes how far constituent outcomes are spreading apart. Capital concentration is contextual only; the index itself is equal weighted.
Momentum cycle
30-week persistence
Positive readings show expansion. Negative readings show contraction.
Breadth cycle
Net participation
Advancers less decliners as a percentage of measured constituents.
News and narrative
Does company news confirm the market tape?
55out of 100
More positive than negative
Positive company scores outnumber negative ones, but the overall score remains close to 50.
Evidence quality
51/100 confidence
Coverage before conviction
Qualified companies2631% of measured constituents
Articles2838100% direct company evidence
Publishers533Independent sources represented
Latest evidence31 AugFreshness is weighted in the score
Constructive 42%Balanced 50%Cautious 8%
Price confirms news2
Price disagrees13
Negative news absorbed0
Positive but stretched6
Constructive edge
Strongest qualified tone
HEI56/100 confidence · 44 direct
66
Heico (NYSE:HEI) Announces Earnings Results, Beats Expectations By $0.16 EPS
HEI-A44/100 confidence · 25 direct 66Heico (NYSE:HEI) Announces Earnings Results, Beats Expectations By $0.16 EPS
HWM52/100 confidence · 127 direct 64Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Stock Could Be 21% Overvalued On Cash Flow And Earnings
NOC53/100 confidence · 103 direct 61Kingsview Wealth Management LLC Buys Shares of 6,885 Northrop Grumman Corporation $NOC
GD58/100 confidence · 119 direct 60General Dynamics (GD) Could Be 8% Undervalued As Q2 Earnings Beat Lands
Narrative risk
Weakest qualified tone
AVEX54/100 confidence · 36 direct
33
AEVEX Management to Present at 2026 Jefferies Global Industrials Conference
YSS37/100 confidence · 67 direct 41Nissay Asset Management Corp Japan Acquires Shares of 345,127 York Space Systems Inc. $YSS
HONA47/100 confidence · 111 direct 46HONAV Price Today: Honeywell Aerospace Inc. Stock Price, Quote & Chart | MEXC
EH35/100 confidence · 41 direct 48EHang EH216-S Completes First Public Flight in Hong Kong, Advancing "Regulatory Sandbox X" …
LHX55/100 confidence · 118 direct 48L3Harris Celebrates Successful Launch of NASA’s Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope
Only fresh, quality-controlled company evidence is included. Industry and sector context is down-weighted and cannot create a directional group conclusion on its own.
Leadership tape
Leaders, laggards and contribution shape
Latest completed week, ranked on uncapped constituent returns.
Constituent ledger
Industry constituents
All 83 measured constituents, ranked by latest weekly return.
Rank
Ticker
Company
Exchange
Market cap
Close
Index contribution
Return
The index uses capped equal-weight weekly constituent returns. The ledger shows uncapped security returns so outliers remain visible for research.